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War and Climate Change

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Climate change is predicted to alter almost every aspect of how humanity and the natural world function, mostly in negative ways [1] [2]. Among several other things, climate change will cause sea level rise, an increase in forest fires, an increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, the further spread of diseases, and a shift in rainfall patterns, resulting in both more droughts and more floods [1] [2]. The world’s poorest, who are marginalized and without good education, infrastructure, and governance, are the most vulnerable [3]. It is because of these changes and more that many world leaders and organizations, including the Norwegian Nobel Committee, the United Nations Security Council, the former U.S. president Barack Obama, and the pentagon, all agree that climate change poses a worldwide security threat [4] [5]. The threat mostly originates from the dozens of ways that climate change causes regional instability [1].

Different parts of the world are vulnerable in different ways, and, depending who is being focused on, some of the impacts of climate change will prove to be more consequential than others.[6]. However, much of the existing research demonstrates that increased levels of rainfall are what we need to worry about the most when trying to prevent violent armed conflict [7]. Natural disasters and sea level rise could also potentially come with a lot of the same problems, but there is disagreement over how likely they are to actually generate violent conflict [4]. That being said, it is important to note that even if certain climate impacts do not directly lead to violent conflict, they still pose a security threat[3]. Deaths caused by things like food shortages, hurricanes, and pandemics are still deaths, even if they are nonviolent [3]. There are many avenues still unexplored and it is important that further research is done [4]

Rainfall[edit]

Rising temperatures will push current worldwide weather patterns to extremes, meaning that some areas will receive a dramatic overabundance of rainfall while others will suffer through major dry spells.[8]. Both droughts and floods damage crops and lead to food shortages, and on top of that floods and mudslides can cause widespread property and infrastructural damage, especially in the poor rural areas of developing nations where many roads are unpaved [6]. While both drought and flooding cause many problems, flooding is considered far more likely to generate violent conflict [7]. Drought leads to scarcity, which is always dangerous, but it is more likely to lead to social and political conflict, such as protests, rioting, strikes, and mutiny [6]. Scarcity can also cause an uptick in crime [4]. Social unrest can become an issue even in wealthier urban areas as large populations move from the countryside to nearby cities all at once, putting a strain on the job market and social infrastructure within those cities [6]. While none of this is good and drought can lead to very serious political and socioeconomic issues, it rarely leads to violent conflict [7]. This may be because it is more difficult to mobilize an army in drought conditions[6]. If this is indeed the reason, it is compounded by the fact that it is often the extremely poor who are most impacted by drought and who have the least access to the resources and funding needed to launch a war or rebellion [6]. An overabundance of rainfall, however, has been shown to lead to violent conflict (usually over the distribution of food and other resources) both in the flood’s initial aftermath and in the years following [7][6]

Natural Disasters[edit]

While there seems to be, for the most part, a consensus that overabundances of rainfall lead to violent conflict, opinions differ more when it comes to natural disasters. Warm temperatures lead to hurricanes and typhoons, which is how climate change is and has been making them both more frequent and more severe.[9]. There are many cases throughout history of natural disasters leading to violent civil conflict, as they can often exacerbate issues of poverty, scarcity, wealth inequality, and the ineffectiveness of a government while also giving marginalized groups an opportunity to rise up in the chaos [10]. However, geological disasters (such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes) have been shown to be more likely to cause violent conflict than climate-related disasters [10]. Natural disasters have also been shown to be enormously harmful to the economy because they damage property and infrastructure, destroy agricultural resources, and kill, injure, or displace affected populations [11]. Rapid-onset disasters, or disasters that happen within a short time frame, are far more dangerous than gradual ones [10]. Conflict is more likely to happen in nations that are already suffering from scarcity and poverty, wealth inequality, and corruption [12]. Other studies have presented evidence that natural disasters are unlikely to cause armed conflict. These disparities could be caused by differences in the geographical, temporal, and social scales between studies [13]. Economic problems have been known to result in violent conflict, but it may be less likely when natural disasters are the cause of said economic problems[11]. Despite the fact that natural disasters clearly damage the economy, they differ from other economic downturns in three ways[11]. The first is that the culprit is Mother Nature, giving the populace something to blame in place of their government or a scapegoated minority[11]. The second is that the damages and losses are viewed as temporary, and people believe that once their communities are repaired they can go back to life as normal[11]. The third is that natural disasters, being a unifying time of hardship, tend bring people together more often than divide them [11]. Also, areas that are prone to natural disasters are more likely to build defenses in the form of protocols and infrastructure into their societal systems, thus minimizing the loss[4]

Sea Level Rise[edit]

A rise in global temperatures is forcing the glaciers and permafrost around the poles to melt, resulting in rising sea levels.[1]. Sea level rise has caused and is projected to continue causing loss of land, erosion, destruction of infrastructure, and the displacement of people [14][15]. Salt water intrusion also results in groundwater pollution and a loss of freshwater resources [14]. This is made worse by the fact that over a billion people live in coastal areas worldwide (making them more vulnerable), and that number is only expected to grow[4]. Inland populations are also at risk, as the economic and trade impacts will affect the entire nation [15]. However, despite all these demonstrated negative impacts, there is not yet strong evidence that sea level rise specifically causes violent conflict [4]. However, this problem is only expected to grow worse, so more research may be conducted as it becomes ever more relevant [15]

References[edit]

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Butts, Kent Hughes (2014). Environmental Security and Climate Change: A Link to Homeland Security. Homeland Security & Emergency Management, Vol. 11(2), pg. 269–279
  2. 2.0 2.1 Altizer, Sonia, Ostfeld, Richard S., Johnson, Pieter T. J. , Kutz, Susan, Harvell, C. Drew (2013). Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework. Science, Vol. 341 (6145), pg. 514-519
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 Busby, Joshua W., Smith, Todd G., White, Kaiba L., Strange, Shawn M. (2013). Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa. International Security, Vol. 37(4), pg. 132-172.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Theisen, Ole Magnus, Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Buhaug, Halvard (2013). Is climate change a driver of armed conflict? Climatic Change, Vol. 117, pg. 613–625.
  5. United Nations, (2014). Climate Change Threatens National Security Says Pentagon.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Hendrix, Cullen S., Salehyan, Idean (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49(1), pg. 35-50.
  7. 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2012). Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49(1), pg. 3-9.
  8. Fadhel, Sherien, Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel, Han, Dawei (2018). Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 560, pg. 546-559.
  9. Ranson, Matthew, Kousky, Carolyn, Ruth, Matthias, Jantarasami, Lesley, Crimmins, Allison, Tarquinio, Lisa (2014). Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. Climactic Change, Vol. 127(2),pg. 227–241.
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 Nel, Philip, Righarts, Marjolein (2008). Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 52, pg. 159–185.
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 Bergholt, Drago, Lujala, Paivi (2012). Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol 49(1), pg. 147-162.
  12. Omelicheva, Mariya Y. (2011). Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability? International Interactions, Vol. 37, pg. 441–465.
  13. Salehyan, Idean (2014). Climate change and conflict: Making sense of disparate findings. Political Geography, Vol. 43, pg. 1-5.
  14. 14.0 14.1 Masciopinto, Costantino, Liso, Isabella Serena (2016). Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge. Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 569-570, pg. 672-680.
  15. 15.0 15.1 15.2 Cui, Qi, Xie, Wei, Liu, Yu (2018). Effects of sea level rise on economic development and regional disparity in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 176, pg. 1245-1253.
  • Butts, Kent Hughes (2014). Environmental Security and Climate Change: A Link to Homeland Security. Homeland Security & Emergency Management, Vol. 11(2), pg. 269–279.
  • Altizer, Sonia, Ostfeld, Richard S., Johnson, Pieter T. J. , Kutz, Susan, Harvell, C. Drew (2013). Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework. Science, Vol. 341 (6145), pg. 514-519.
  • Busby, Joshua W., Smith, Todd G., White, Kaiba L., Strange, Shawn M. (2013). Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa. International Security, Vol. 37(4), pg. 132-172.
  • Theisen, Ole Magnus, Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Buhaug, Halvard (2013). Is climate change a driver of armed conflict? Climatic Change, Vol. 117, pg. 613–625.
  • United Nations, (2014). Climate Change Threatens National Security Says Pentagon.
  • Hendrix, Cullen S., Salehyan, Idean (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49(1), pg. 35-50.
  • Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2012). Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 49(1), pg. 3-9.
  • Fadhel, Sherien, Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel, Han, Dawei (2018). Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 560, pg. 546-559.
  • Ranson, Matthew, Kousky, Carolyn, Ruth, Matthias, Jantarasami, Lesley, Crimmins, Allison, Tarquinio, Lisa (2014). Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. Climactic Change, Vol. 127(2),pg. 227–241.
  • Nel, Philip, Righarts, Marjolein (2008). Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 52, pg. 159–185.
  • Bergholt, Drago, Lujala, Paivi (2012). Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol 49(1), pg. 147-162.
  • Omelicheva, Mariya Y. (2011). Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability? International Interactions, Vol. 37, pg. 441–465.
  • Salehyan, Idean (2014). Climate change and conflict: Making sense of disparate findings. Political Geography, Vol. 43, pg. 1-5.
  • Masciopinto, Costantino, Liso, Isabella Serena (2016). Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge. Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 569-570, pg. 672-680.
  • Cui, Qi, Xie, Wei, Liu, Yu (2018). Effects of sea level rise on economic development and regional disparity in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 176, pg. 1245-1253.


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