Aubrey Clayton
Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics. He is the author of Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science, which presents a thesis on the origin and cause of the reproducibility crisis affecting up to 50% of scientific studies in leading academic journals, with profound implications for law, medicine, and public policy.
Aubrey Clayton | |
|---|---|
| Occupation | Applied mathematics research |
| Nationality | United States |
| Literary movement | Bayesian statistics |
| Website | |
| https://aubreyclayton.com/ | |
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science was published in 2021.
Reveals that the discipline of statistics as applied in the social sciences has a fundamental logical flaw.
Traces the error back to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 book Ars Conjectandi, on probability and combinatorics.
Moreover, that the 20th century innovators of the discipline, Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, were all supporters of eugenics, and used statistics to silence their critics.
Describes the Bayesian vs Frequentist schism as a "dispute about the nature and origins of probability: whether it comes from 'outside us' in the form of uncontrollable random noise in observations, or 'inside us' as our uncertainty given limited information on the state of the world."
Clayton approves of E.T. Jaynes’s "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science".
"This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly". -- Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, coauthor of Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course
As well-written as it is fascinating, and for my money is the best single-volume work describing and contributing to the debates in modern statistics on the shelves today. It can be profitably read by those with no background in the field, but will surely contain new ideas for experts as well. Having read the book, I myself will never think about statistics the same way. -- Dominic Klyve ― American Mathematical Monthly
"Aubrey Clayton’s “Bernoulli’s Fallacy” is not here to make friends;... a timely story, well-told. It makes a compelling case for a shake-up in the world of statistics that may just be strident enough to spark change." -- Sara Stoudt, Bucknell University, in MAA Reviews, Mathematical Association of America
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Selected Publications
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- Clayton, Aubrey (2021-08-03). Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science. Columbia University Press. ISBN 0231199953. Search this book on
Notes and References
- Sara Stoudt. "Review of Bernoulli's Fallacy". www.maa.org. Mathematical Association of America. Retrieved 2023-02-15.
- Clayton, Aubrey (August 2021). Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-55335-3. Search this book on
- Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan (2021-10-02). "Bernoulli's Fallacy". CHANCE. 34 (4): 37–38. doi:10.1080/09332480.2021.2003642. ISSN 0933-2480.
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