Climate change degree by degree
Anthropogenic climate change fueled by rising temperatures will have different impacts depending on the scale of the warming[1]. For avoiding different scale of warming different amount of efforts will be needed.[2] As of May 2021, current policies will result in a warming of 2.9 °C by 2100.[3]
Warming of 1 degree[edit]
Impacts[edit]
In the beginning of the 21st century after the temperature rose by more than 1 degree, many physical impacts of climate change are already visible, including extreme weather events, glacier retreat,[4] changes in the timing of seasonal events (e.g., earlier flowering of plants),[5] sea level rise, and declines in Arctic sea ice extent.[6] The ocean has taken up between 20 and 30% of human-induced atmospheric carbon dioxide since the 1980s, leading to ocean acidification.[7] The ocean is also warming and since 1970 has absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system.[7]
Warming of 1.5 degree[edit]
Possible impacts[edit]
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees can prevent tropical regions where 43% of the human population live from becoming uninhabitable, because then the threshold of 35 degrees of wet bulb temperature will not be passed.[8]
Possibility to avoid the warming[edit]
With the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, the International Panel on Climate Change has emphasized the benefits of keeping global warming below this level.[9] Emissions pathways with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure including transport and buildings, and industrial systems.[10] Pathways that aim for limiting warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 after a temporary temperature overshoot rely on large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures, which are uncertain and entail clear risks.[11]
Warming of 2 degrees[edit]
Possible impacts[edit]
In the Oxford Economics high emission scenario, a temperature rise of 2 degrees by the year 2050 would reduce global GDP by 2.5% - 7.5%.[12]
Possibility to avoid the warming[edit]
After leaving room for emissions for food production for 9 billion people and to keep the global temperature rise below 2 °C, emissions from energy production and transport will have to peak almost immediately in the developed world and decline at about 10% each year until zero emissions are reached around 2030.[13][14][15][16][needs update]
Warming of 3 degrees[edit]
Possible impacts[edit]
According to Swiss Re If the temperature will rise by 3 degrees by 2050, the world GDP will fall by 18%.[17]
Possibility to avoid the warming[edit]
Mitigation policies currently in place will result in about 3.0 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. However, if current plans are not actually implemented, global warming is expected to reach 4.1 °C to 4.8 °C by 2100. There is a substantial gap between national plans and commitments and actual actions so far taken by governments around the world.[18]
Warming of 4 degrees[edit]
Possible impacts[edit]
A temperature rise by 4 degrees could reduce the global GDP by 30% in the worst case.[19]
Possibility to avoid the warming[edit]
The IPCC's Fifth Report, states that the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, RCP8.5, will lead to a temperature increase of about 4.3˚C by 2100.[20]
Warming above 4 degrees[edit]
Possible impacts[edit]
Warming of 6 degrees can cause mass extinction.[21]
Possibility to avoid the warming[edit]
Even if temperature will rise by 2 degreees Climate feedbacks can rise it to 4 - 5 degrees above preindustrial level.[22]
References[edit]
- ↑ "A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter". Global Climate Change. NASA. Retrieved 28 May 2021.
- ↑ SR15 Summary for policymakers, C.1.
- ↑ Temperatures, Climate Action Tracker
- ↑ Cramer, W., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 18: Detection and attribution of observed impacts (archived 18 October 2014), pp.982–984, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- ↑ Settele, J., et al., Section 4.3.2.1: Phenology, in: Chapter 4: Terrestrial and inland water systems (archived 20 October 2014), p.291, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- ↑
Hegerl, G.C.; et al. "Ch 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change". Executive Summary. Search this book on
, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers. 2019. p. 9. Search this book on
- ↑ Shah, Karina. "Keep warming under 1.5°C to stop tropics becoming too hot to live". New Scientist. Nature Geoscience. Retrieved 30 May 2021.
- ↑ IPCC SR15 Technical Summary 2018, p. 31
- ↑ IPCC SR15 SPM 2018, p. 15
- ↑ IPCC SR15 Technical Summary 2018, p. 33
- ↑ Koning Beals, Rachel. "Global GDP will suffer at least a 3% hit by 2050 from unchecked climate change, say economists". MarketWatch. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
- ↑ Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice (13 January 2011). "Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 369 (1934): 20–44. Bibcode:2011RSPTA.369...20A. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290. PMID 21115511.
- ↑ Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice (2012). "A new paradigm for climate change". Nature Climate Change. 2 (9): 639–40. Bibcode:2012NatCC...2..639A. doi:10.1038/nclimate1646. Unknown parameter
|s2cid=ignored (help) - ↑ Anderson K. (2012). Real clothes for the Emperor: Facing the challenges of climate change. The Cabot annual lecture, Univ. of Bristol. Video, Transcript
- ↑ The Radical Emission Reduction Conference: 10–11 December 2013 Archived 27 October 2014 at the Wayback Machine, sponsored by the Tyndall Centre. Video proceedings Archived 2017-03-24 at the Wayback Machine on-line.
- ↑ "World economy set to lose up to 18% GDP from climate change if no action taken, reveals Swiss Re Institute's stress-test analysis". Swiss Re. Retrieved 28 May 2021.
- ↑ "Temperatures". Climate Action Tracker. Retrieved 28 May 2021.
- ↑ Koning Beals, Rachel. "Global GDP will suffer at least a 3% hit by 2050 from unchecked climate change, say economists". MarketWatch. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
- ↑ RCP 8.5: Business-as-usual or a worst-case scenario, Climate Nexus, retrieved from https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/rcp-8-5-business-as-usual-or-a-worst-case-scenario/
- ↑ "6 Degrees Warmer: Mass Extinction?". National Geographic. Retrieved 30 May 2021.
- ↑ Wecker, Katharina (6 August 2018). "Domino effect could heat up Earth by 5 degrees Celsius — despite Paris climate deal". Deutche Welle. Retrieved 30 May 2021.
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