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Dowling-Neven law

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The Dowling-Neven Law is the observation that the number of qubits in a superconducting quantum computer integrated circuit doubles about every six months, and so the quantum processing power is increasing at a double exponential rate. The observation is named after Jonathan P. Dowling, the founder of the US Government Program in Quantum Computing and professor of theoretical physics at Louisiana State University, and Hartmut Neven, director of engineering and distinguished scientist at Google.

Dowling's 2013 book described a double exponential growth in the processing power of a quantum computer, once the number of qubits began doubling every few months.[1]

Then in March 2018 Joe Fitzsimons, CEO of Horizon Quantum, pointed out that the number of qubits on superconducting quantum computers was doubling every six months. Dowling presented Fitzsimons' data in a talk at a Münchner Kreis workshop on quantum technology held on July 5, 2018.[2]

Dowling's lecture was posted on YouTube, and, 18 minutes into his presentation, he shows Fitzsimon's slide and states that the processing power of superconducting quantum computers is, therefore, growing at a double-exponential rate.[3]

Nearly a year later, in June 2019, Hartmut Neven, director of engineering and distinguished scientist at Google, independently made the same observation as Dowling had. Neven's comments were picked up by Quanta Magazine and the popular media, leading to the observation being called by the misnomer of "Neven's Law".[4]

References[edit]

  1. Schrödinger's Killer App: Race to Build the World's First Quantum Computer, by Jonathan P. Dowling, (CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group, 2013), p. 393, "Exponentially large Hilbert space over the next 50 years. The horizontal scale assumes a type of Moore’s law for quantum processors with the number of qubits in the processor following an exponential growth doubling in size every few years. (This is the type of scaling we’ll have to have if a universal quantum computer with a billion qubits is to be built in 50 years.) The dimension of the Hilbert space scales exponentially again with the number of qubits, and so it scales “super” exponentially along the vertical axis."
  2. "Quantum Technology : MÜNCHNER KREIS". www.muenchner-kreis.de.
  3. "Jonathan Dowling: The Race to Build the Quantum Internet" – via www.youtube.com.
  4. "Does Neven's Law Describe Quantum Computing's Rise?". Quanta Magazine.


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