Election Projections UK
| File:Election Projections UK Logo (as of June 2021).png | |
Type of site | Election results and predictions |
|---|---|
| Available in | English |
| Created by | Louis Miles |
| Website | electionprojections |
| Launched | April 6, 2021 |
| Current status | Online |
Election Projections UK is an English poll aggregator and decision desk that focuses on reporting election results and polling, primarily in the United Kingdom, United States, France, Ireland and Canada. It was founded in 2021 by Louis Miles as a Twitter account to cover the upcoming 2021 United Kingdom local elections. It is one of the only election organisations in the UK to project winners in elections in the country. Since its creation, they have correctly projected the winner in 87% of the elections they have covered. They have since covered the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election, the 2021 Peruvian general election, the 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election, the 2021 New York City mayoral election, and the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election.
2021 United Kingdom local elections coverage
The first major contests Election Projections UK covered were the 2021 United Kingdom local elections. They were the only election results aggregator to project winners in certain elections. They correctly projected the winner(s) of 10 of 11 (91%) elections the organisation made projections in:
2021 London mayoral election[1]
2021 Greater Manchester mayoral election[2]
2021 Scottish Parliament election (correctly projected who would become First Minister[3], incorrectly projected whether the SNP would reach an overall majority of seats[4]).
2021 Hartlepool by-election[5]
2021 West Midlands mayoral election[6]
2021 Tees Valley mayoral election[7]
2021 Kent County Council election (projected who would be in the majority[8]).
2021 West of England mayoral election[9]
2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election[10]
The organisation was able to make projections in these races by using a combination of assessing opinion polls before the elections, past results in these areas and the first early results to determine the final outcome.
Other election results coverage
Since the local elections, they have correctly projected winners and outcomes in 80% of elections they predicted. These are:
2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election (correct)
2021 Peruvian general election (projected winner in presidential runoff, 2 days before 100% of the votes were in, correct)
2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election (incorrect, predicted the odds-on Conservative candidate to win, instead the Liberal Democrats gained the seat)
2021 New York City mayoral election (correct: in the Democratic primary, projected that no candidate would receive 50% of first-choice votes, and that ranked-choice votes would need to be tabulated)
2021 French regional elections (projected the winner of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur regional presidential election, after exit polls showed incumbent Renaud Muselier with a near 15% lead, correct)
United States election characterisations
Election Projections UK have characterised the following races:
2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election: Solid D[11] (as of July 4, 2021)
References
- ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390411047950065674". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390412051500068865". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390413057885605888". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1391052053695410184". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390423290347393026". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390613352376832002". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390668233313857536". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1390695449271619594". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1391051492698767363". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "https://twitter.com/ukprojections/status/1391424820496187393". Twitter. Retrieved 2021-07-04. External link in
|title=(help) - ↑ "2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election", Wikipedia, 2021-07-04, retrieved 2021-07-04
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