Fraud Allegations in South Korea's 21st Parliamentary Election

South Korea's 21st legislative elections (also known as general election or parliamentary election), held on April 15, 2020, have been surrounded by allegations of fraud. These allegations were first raised by activists who found odd consistencies and discrepancies in the election data published by the National Election Commission. Since the first of the allegations were raised, various South Korean scholars have put forth their own analyses corroborating the statistical unlikeliness of the election results. The international academic community have also highlighted the statistical anomalies in the election results, most noteworthy of them being Walter R Mebane, Jr. Apart from these statistical anomalies, other issues with the voting process have been discovered, which some claim lends credence to the possibility of fraudulent manipulation of the voting results. Most noteworthy of them being features on voting machines that allow for external communication, the use of QR codes in early voting, discovery of ballots in random places, and damaged ballot boxes and votes.

Numerous protests calling for an investigation into the allegations raised have taken place at The National Election Commission, The Supreme Court, and near various subway stations in Seoul. To date, 137 election-related lawsuits have been filed, 26 of which by candidates who participated in the election.

Election Process

Early Voting

Beginning in 2013, in lieu of Absentee Voting, the National Election Commission implemented early voting whereby constituents could cast their votes prior to election day. Early voting takes place from 5 to 2 days before the election day. Early voting are classified separately depending on where the vote are cast in relation to one's residence. Constituents who cast their votes early at an early voting station located in the district in which they reside would be classified as in-district, whereas constituents who cast their votes in early voting elsewhere are classified out-of-district.

In the last 20th general election, out of around 42 million voters, roughly 5 million voters opted to cast their votes early. 12.19% of the voters cast their votes early. In comparison, in the most recent 21st general election, out of around 44 million voters, roughly 12 million voters cast their votes early at a rate of 26.7%.

Statistical Anomalies

Difference in early voting and election day voting results

In early voting, the Democratic Party also known as the Open Minju Party, won 56.3% of the votes and the Conservative Party, also known as the United Future Party won 34.9%. On election day, the Democratic Party won 45.6% of the votes while the Conservative Party won 46.0%. The Democratic Party gained on average 10.7% in early voting compared to results on the election day while the Conservative Party fared on average 11.1% worse in early voting compared to the results on election day. Few academics have highlighted that this kind of result is unlikely, given that the voters who cast their votes in early voting and on election day are from the same statistical population. In the last 20th general election, the difference between early voting and election day voting results for the democratic party was on average 2% and 3% for the conservative party.

This difference in the voting results is also significant in Seoul, South Korea's capital. In Seoul, the Democratic Party candidates won on average 12% more in early voting compared to the results on the election day. The Conservative Party candidates fared on average 12% worse in early voting compared to the results on election day. Taken together, in Seoul, the Democratic Party won 24% more than the Conservative Party in early voting compared to election day results. In the last 20th general election, the total difference between the two parties was on average 6%.

Various explanations to account for the large difference between early voting and election day voting results have been put forward. Voters who took part in early voting commented that they saw more people in their 20s and 30s come out to vote. This is contrary to the data published by the National Election Commission, which published that 30.8% of the votes cast in early voting came from voters who were 60 or older and 21.9% of the votes came from those between the age of 50 to 60. Taken together 52.7% of the votes cast in early voting were from voters aged 50 or older which contrasts with the claims that more people in their 20s and 30s came out to vote.

Another explanation put forth to explain the large difference in the voting results is that voters who support the democratic party opted to vote more in early voting. According to an analysis where all of the 1537 voting districts were plotted against corresponding sub-districts' early voting turnouts , no such correlation was found for either parties that corroborates the claim that more democratic voters opted to vote more in early voting .

Consistency in different types of early voting results

Another statistical anomaly pointed out is the consistency in different types of early voting results. In numerous voting districts, the ratio between out-of-district votes won and in-district votes won were identical for the top three candidates. For an example, in Yeonsu, a sub-district of Incheon, a city, the ratio is 0.39. If you multiply 0.39 to the number of in-district votes won for each candidate, then the result would closely match the number of out-of-district votes won for each candidate. Although different in ratio, similar patterns have been found in 43 of the 253 voting districts nationwide.

Consistency in voting results

The consistency in the voting results nationwide and specifically in Seoul have also garnered much attention. In every single 49 voting districts in Seoul, the Democratic Party candidates gained between 10 and 16% in early voting compared to the election day results at an average of 12% while the Conservative Party candidates fared 12% worse on average in early voting compared to election day results. More surprisingly, in every single 424 sub-districts in Seoul, the Democratic Party candidates performed better in early voting than on election day.

Another odd consistency discovered is the nearly identical percentage of votes won by each party in early voting in three different voting regions. In Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeongi, the Democratic Party won roughly 63% of the votes while the Conservative Party won 36%.

Controversies

The United Future Party's position

Various candidates and members of the Conservative Party, The United Future Party (UFP), have publicly come out and denied the validity of these fraud allegations. One of the first to publicly condemn these allegations was a former UFP candidate Jun-seok Lee, who stated that these allegations are "irrational" and that a distorted analysis of data and claiming "this is statistical evidence of fraud" is to accuse the entire election commission of collusion. Yu Kyung-jun, another member of UFP, have claimed that there is 98.4% chance that no fraud occurred in South Korea's general election, while also stating that the NEC should disclose information related to the election in order to address these fraud allegations. In an informal memorandum distributed to members of UFP, the party has denied the fraud allegations raised so far, citing "lack of evidence."

The National Election Commission's response

The National Election Commission, while admitting lack of care in storing and losing certain election-related seals and votes, has denied all allegations of fraud. In a recent press conference, it has deconstructed the voting machine used in early voting.

See also

• 2020 South Korean legislative election
• List of political parties in South Korea
• Politics of South Korea
• Senate of South Korea

References

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