Neighborhood Life Cycle

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The Neighborhood Life Cycle details the stages of  the growth and decline of neighborhoods in densely populated areas. This model was curated by urban economists Edgar M. Hoover and Raymond Vernon. Typically the Neighborhood Life Cycle involves an affluent establishing population that creates a neighborhood that attracts minority groups that will populate the fringes of the neighborhood. These minorities soon increase in population and will eventually displace the establishing population, leading to a decline in the neighborhood. Neighborhood decline is characterized by the decrease of private home ownership in favor of landlords, decreased access to public services, overcrowding, buildings deteriorating in aesthetics and function and controversially, a high percentage of poorer residents compared to the establishing population.

The Neighborhood Life Cycle can be considered a socio-economic phenomenon and it is tied to larger events such as “White flight”. This effectively promotes housing segregation and unfair living conditions to those who are left in the deteriorating neighborhood. The final stage for an urban neighborhood is either: complete decay and land re-purposing , or renovating and improving the conditions of the neighborhood. In some cases there are federal guidelines in place to reclaim land, but this has incited controversy as some believe that neighborhoods are left without assistance on purpose. In other cases, neighborhoods could potentially attract investors or more affluent residents, however, this can lead to gentrification  which can lead to population migration against the will of the less affluent residents.

Theory

Hoover and Vernon propose a five-stage model for the urban neighborhood life cycle, showing the progression from urban growth to urban decline.

1. There is open, rural land with a low population density that has potential for development. These single-family residential developments are on the outer edge of the urban landscape.
2. As residential development grows, there is a call for investment in infrastructure. The construction of apartment complexes commences, increasing the population density and maximizing the use of public and private land. This growth continues until the neighborhood reaches a sustainable capacity. The land increases in development until it “peaks”.
3. Eventually, areas get overcrowded. A period of downgrading sets in to accommodate for the higher population density, leading to increased prevalence of lower income, falling rents, and the spread of minority districts.
4. Younger people move out of the declining city. Population loss and decline in both housing units and business lead to a thinning-out of the urban area. This is often the formation of a slum community.
5. There is either a complete collapse of the neighborhood where the standard of living and its effect to surrounding areas incite immediate removal , or public intervention leads to neighborhood renewal. Commercial and residential redevelopment occurs and the population grows again.

Criticism

The theory has been criticized as creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where the designation of certain areas as declining discouraged people from moving to or investing in them, thereby causing further decline. However, it has also been noted that it is unlikely that the mere existence of this theory created all of this decline and it is hard to prove that it would not have happened regardless of the existence of the theory. Some critics have even hypothesized that the theory encouraged investors and planners to perpetuate the system of neighborhood change through racially discriminatory practices such as redlining. Even in original writings on the theory of Neighborhood Life Cycle it was noted that of course not every neighborhood goes through it, the theory was meant to be more of a general guideline than a step-by-step break down of every single neighborhood’s decline and renewal. Even so, critics can find it overly formulaic and therefore unable to take into account the diverse factors which account for a neighborhood's prosperity or lack thereof . The theory tends to ignore other factors that may cause decline, focusing primarily on the demographic makeup of the neighborhood over time, which more recent scholars have found problematic.

The Neighborhood Life Cycle Theory has also been criticized for being too pessimistic and only viewing the effects of aging as negative. The theory does not explore any positive alternatives to cyclical decline. Critics such as Ilan Wiesel propose that there could be such a thing as a “Neighborhood Renaissance” where the neighborhood reaches greater prosperity and liveliness as it ages rather than declining over the years. Wiesel draws on the idea that there may be less movement than in the original theory, looking at the positive benefits of people who grow old in the same neighborhood they lived within during midlife leading to a strong community within the neighborhood.

History

Edgar M Hoover and Raymond Vernon were influenced by an economist by the name of Fredrick Babcock, who wrote a book, The Valuation of Real Estate, which outlines a similar idea Babcock referred to as the “future histories of neighborhoods” . This emphasizes the defined path for neighborhoods without deliberate effort to redesign its purpose. This path, according to Babcock, leads to decline and abandonment, due to “decline in quality of people” from expansion and population increases in proximal and adjacent areas. Babcock’s work explained different types of decline for five different neighborhood styles, and stood as the basis for FHA procedure from its creation in 1932, until 1949 when it was amended on the ground of discriminatory rhetoric.

Building off Babcock’s ideas, Hoover and Vernon drafted the Neighborhood Life Cycle Theory in 1959 as a part of a study for the Regional Plan Association of the urban community of New York. The association aimed to “improve the New York metropolitan region’s economic health, environmental sustainability and quality of life through research, planning and advocacy,” which aligns with the goal Hoover and Vernon had in mind in drafting the neighborhood life cycle theory. Originally, the plan was formulated to specifically model patterns observed in New York, but the theory was soon used in urban regions across the nation to predict the inevitable decline of ethnically separated communities “districts occupied by more or less segregated ethnic and minority groups”.

Initially, the Neighborhood Life Cycle Theory was instituted as a tool used in the process of neighborhood risk-rating. Also, the theory was referenced in creating a set of standards used by the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) and by the Federal Housing Association (FHA). As a result, the Neighborhood Life Cycle Theory indirectly enourage the FHA to not provide funding to majority African American neighborhoods and housing. This continued until the 1960’s, when city riots convinced the association to amend the methods with which neighborhoods are evaluated and funding is allocated.

Below is a list of specific policies and theories that have been utilized in evaluating quality and risk of urban communities, evolving to the Neighborhood Life Cycle Theory as drafted by Hoover and Vernon. Each was employed by different residential authorities at different times, but share a similar system of a multi-staged decline from prolific and contributing neighborhood to a land region either abandoned or drastically decreasing in value.

U.S. Home Owners’ Loan Corp. Residential Security Map (1935)

The first stage of this model, a “Grade A” area consists of an organized community of a homogenous population. The second stage includes a developed, stable environment (Grade B). Sequentially, a Grade C community implies that as homogeneity decreases, as does income, and therefore so do housing values, as the neighborhood creeps towards obsolescence. Lastly, a Grade D neighborhood by these standards consists of an “undesirable population” dwelling in low-income rental properties.

U.S. Home Owners’ Loan Corp. Waverly: A Study in Neighborhood Conservation (1940)

   In this model drafted by Frank Babcock for a study by HOLC, a community begins as a newly constructed residential area. It then ages slightly to fit into the surrounding region seamlessly, with normal use requiring regular maintenance. In this stage, the area deteriorates slightly from its brand new state, but the authority in the area is on top of restorations and issues are fixed quickly. Transitioning to Stage 3, the community ages and is neglected by the inhabitants and local authority. Stage 4 includes noticeable deteriorating of value and structure and consistent negligence. The 5th stage in this model outlines the transition to a legitimate slum neighborhood with inherent social havoc.

Regional Plan Association (1959)

This model, the Neighborhood Life-Cycle Theory as drafted by Edgar M Hoover and Raymond Vernon also outlines 5 points in the deterioration of certain types of urban neighborhoods. The stages of this are outlined thoroughly under Five Stages of the Neighborhood Life Cycle, but briefly can be described as, 1) single- family residences 2) higher density apartment and condo dwelling, 3) downgrading these apartment type living conditions to accommodate an even higher density of occupants and spread of minority districts 4) decline of suitable housing units resulting in population loss and “thinning” 5) revitalization by public intervention of local authority, replacement of obsolete housing with multi-family apartments.

Public Choice Theory and Prevention of Suburbanization

In 1960-1968, economics PhD, Anthony Downs, submitted a plan for nation-wide city renewal based on the neighborhood life cycle theory and his dissertation of public choice theory, along with data he collected indicating that the deliberate choices made by residential and loan associations against minorities as a group has detrimentally tampered the natural markets, not allowing them to self-regulate . He argued against this political action interfering with the economic markets, and he proposed:

“creation of a truly massive urban renewal program supported by the federal government. Such a program would have to be so large that whole neighborhoods of high-school-district size would be demolished and replaced by newly-constructed developments occupied by middle-class residents who would initially establish high standards and maintain them henceforth.”

His goal was to keep city dwelling diverse by raising the standards of certain urban communities, filling it with middle class white occupants, so that it would be held to a higher standard and be less likely to deteriorate in the future.

Real Estate Research Corporation: The Dynamics of Neighborhood Change (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, (1975)

Following the 1960’s urban riots, the RERC developed a form of the neighborhood life cycle that consisted of 5 steps as follows: 1) Healthy, homogenous* housing of middle to upper class tenants, 2) Incipient Decline, referring to decline in education and income, the entrance of minority groups, and the beginning of fear of racial transition in the area. 3) Clearly declining: seere structural deterioration and neglect, decrease of white-American move ins, majority minority children in schools, high percentage of rental properties, limited access to insurance, financing, and financial advising. 4) Accelerating Declining: increasing vacancies, majority low-income or elderly occupants, high unemployment, crime, low/declining public services 5) Abandoned: severe dilapidation, high number of homeless and squatters, high severe poverty rates, negative cash flow from buildings.

This last model of the neighborhood life cycle is different from the others before it, being formed as a result of the post riot era and numerous attempts to revitalize city dwellings after many argued the prior measures taken to “prevent” such an issue made matters worse. First, it did not include renewal or revitalization as a built-in stage of the neighborhood life cycle. Second, the RERC model once again employed real estate infiltration theories (the proposal that change in the racial makeup acted as “predators” in the decline at each stage). Third, this model chose to place abandonment at the final declining stage as opposed to revitalization or rebuilding of the community.

References

This article "Neighborhood Life Cycle" is from Wikipedia. The list of its authors can be seen in its historical and/or the page Edithistory:Neighborhood Life Cycle. Articles copied from Draft Namespace on Wikipedia could be seen on the Draft Namespace of Wikipedia and not main one.

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