Next Australian federal election
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The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 20 May 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia.
It is expected that the incumbent Labor majority government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, will seek a third three-year term in government. They are expected to be challenged by the Liberal-National Coalition, led by Leader of the Opposition Sussan Ley. It is expected that the Australian Greens, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, and other minor parties and independents will contest the election.
Australia has compulsory voting, with preferential instant runoff voting in single-member seats.
Background
The 2025 Australian federal election, held on 3 May, resulted in a historic landslide victory for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Labor secured 93 seats in the House of Representatives, marking its strongest performance since 2007 and defying pre-election polls that had predicted a much closer contest. The Coalition suffered significant losses, including the seat of Dickson, held by then-Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who was unseated by Labor's Ali France.[1]
A particularly notable outcome was the dramatic decline of the Australian Greens in the lower house. The party lost three of its four seats, including the long-held seat of Melbourne, where Greens leader Adam Bandt was defeated by Labor's Sarah Witty, ending his 15-year tenure in Parliament. The Greens' only remaining seat in the House of Representatives was Ryan in Queensland, held by Elizabeth Watson-Brown. Analysts attributed the Greens' losses to a combination of factors, including controversial stances on foreign policy, particularly regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict, and a perceived shift away from core environmental issues, leading to voter alienation in key electorates.[2][3]
Another significant development in the 2025 election was the re-emergence of Clive Palmer and his new political party, the Trumpet of Patriots. After the High Court blocked the re-registration of his previous party, the United Australia Party, Palmer joined the Trumpet of Patriots in February 2025, which was modelled after Trumpism. The party's campaign featured slogans like "Make Australia Great Again" and policies opposing immigration and gender diversity initiatives. Despite spending approximately $60 million on a nationwide advertising blitz, including over $6 million on YouTube and Meta platforms, and sending over 17 million unsolicited text messages, the party failed to secure any seats in Parliament, garnering only 1.85% of the national vote. Following this defeat, Palmer announced his retirement from politics, citing his age and a desire to focus on philanthropic efforts.[4]
Nationals Senator Matt Canavan challenged incumbent leader David Littleproud in a leadership spill.[5] Littleproud was re-elected as party leader on 12 May.[6]
On 13 May 2025, the Liberals elected their new leader in a leadership election. Following the federal election but prior to the leadership election, Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price defected from the Nationals party room to the Liberal party room to stand in the election for the position of Deputy Leader. Sussan Ley was subsequently elected leader, narrowly defeating Angus Taylor, with Ted O'Brien being elected as her deputy.[7] Ley is the first woman elected to lead the Liberals, the Coalition, or serve as the Leader of the Opposition at the federal level in Australia.[8][9] At 63, Ley is also the oldest first-time Leader of the Opposition since Arthur Calwell in 1960.[10]
The Greens held a leadership election on 15 May 2025, and elected senator Larissa Waters as their leader.
Electoral system
Members of the House of Representatives are elected by full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member. Senators are elected by proportional representation using single transferable vote. In states, senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts. Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.[11][12]
Redistribution
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each state and territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution would be required in those states. A redistribution would be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.
Notwithstanding the above, Queensland, Tasmania, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory will have to undergo scheduled redistributions in 2025–2026 as seven years have already or would have elapsed since their last respective redistribution.[13][14]
Voter registration
Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[15] Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[16] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[17]
Election date
The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections, so that the writs for a half-Senate election can not be issued earlier than 1 July 2027. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 7 August 2027. Given that the elections for the new senators must take place by 30 June 2028, the latest possible date for a Half-Senate election is 20 May 2028. The latest possible house election will be subject to the conditions above from when the new house meets.
Opinion polling
Notes
- ↑ Robbie Katter is the party leader but serves as the member for Traeger in the Queensland Legislative Assembly.
- ↑ Katter's Australian have never fielded candidates outside of Queensland, making it impossible to win government.
References
- ↑ Knott, Matthew (2025-05-05). "Did the polls get this election wrong?". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 6 May 2025. Retrieved 2025-05-13. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Greens leader Adam Bandt concedes seat, ending 15 years in parliament". ABC News. 2025-05-08. Retrieved 2025-05-13.
- ↑ "Why some voters flipped from Greens to Labor in progressive Melbourne". ABC News. 2025-05-08. Archived from the original on 11 May 2025. Retrieved 2025-05-13. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ Hussey, Samuel (2025-05-04). "How billionaire Clive Palmer burned $60 million on a party that won nothing". Forbes Australia. Retrieved 2025-05-13.
- ↑ "Matt Canavan challenges David Littleproud as Coalition fractures deepen". 7NEWS. 2025-05-09. Retrieved 2025-05-11.
- ↑ Cassidy, Caitlin; Convery, Stephanie (12 May 2025). "Australia news live: Bridget McKenzie says Nationals a 'highly intellectual group of fighters' after David Littleproud re-elected as leader". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-05-12.
- ↑ "Jacinta Price announces run for deputy Liberal Party leader". 9News. 2025-05-10. Retrieved 2025-05-11.
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs named:1 - ↑ Turnbull, Tiffanie (13 May 2025). "Sussan Ley: Australia's Liberal Party names first female leader". BBC News. Retrieved 15 May 2025.
- ↑ Cassidy, Caitlin; Kelly, Cait (2025-05-13). "Australia news live: Sussan Ley claims PM's approach to Jewish Australians 'one of the biggest threats to social cohesion'". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-05-13.
- ↑ "House of Representatives counting". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 16 January 2025. Retrieved 2025-05-05. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Senate counting". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 21 January 2025. Retrieved 2025-05-05. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Queensland redistribution Deferral of redistribution". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 31 March 2025.
- ↑ "Tasmanian redistribution Deferral of redistribution". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 26 November 2024.
- ↑ "Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 - Section 155". AustLII. Archived from the original on 31 July 2017. Retrieved 2025-05-05. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Enrol to vote". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 1 October 2019. Retrieved 2025-05-05. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 - Section 99A". AustLII. Archived from the original on 7 May 2017. Retrieved 2025-05-05. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help)
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