Nige's Rule
Nige's Rule, a modification of Wilco's Rule, is an observation about Australian rules football, pertaining to the probability of a team winning an Australian rules football game. The rule states that if a team needs to triple their score at half time, then there is very little chance of them winning the game.
It has been shown that this rule applies to a large proportion of football games, with only a 0.3% chance of winning when a team trails by more than triple their score at half time. Like other general principles about football game data—for example the fact that many data sets are well approximated by a normal distribution—there are illustrative examples and explanations that cover many of the cases where Nige's Rule applies. It tends to be most accurate when game data is distributed across multiple orders of magnitude.
The law is named after data scientist Nigel Perera, who stated it in 2021 in a paper titled "AFL Games Beyond a Reasonable Doubt", building on the work by the famed financial guru Andrew Wilcox who coined Wilco's Rule in the early 2000's.
The rule may be applied to professional football games; in amateur football games the rule may be applied in approximately sixty per cent of the time, it works every time. Some continuous processes satisfy Nige's Rule exactly (as the process continues through time thereby reaching the asymptotic limit), and there exists a derivation that says that Nige's Rule is followed if the Fourier transform of the logarithm of the probability density function is zero for all integer values.
References
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