One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence

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One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence

The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, or AI100, is an ongoing study started in December 2014 by Stanford University motivated by anticipating the opportunities and issues with the advancement of artificial intelligence, much like envisioning the ubiquity of modern travel via jet airplanes (and the processes, standards, and infrastructure needed to support it) even before the Wright brother's first flight. The study aims to assemble a series of panels of top thinkers, leaders, and researchers to conduct a "a century-long periodic assessment of the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and its influences on people, their communities, and society." Beyond the 100 years eluded to in the study's name, it is described as being endowed "to continue for as long as Stanford exists."

The study had its genesis in a 2008-2009 Asilomar AI study commissioned by AAAI, where a panel of 25 AI scientists, robotics, and ethical and legal scholars considered the nature and timing of AI successes and its broader societal influences. The study was the first meeting of AI scientists to address concerns about superintelligence and loss of control of AI and attracted interest by the public.

The One Hundred Year Study was kicked off five years after the Asilomar AI study and follows a five-year cycle, where distinguished AI experts come together to discuss technical trends and societal influences at five year intervals. The framing memo states the goal as creating “a long-term program of study on the influences of AI on people and society—one that provides a long gaze into the future and that would continue to leverage and extend a rich archive.” The memo explicitly calls out 18 topics for consideration, including law, ethics, the economy, war, and crime. Topics include abuses of AI that could pose threats to democracy and freedom and addressing possibilities of the loss of control of AI.

Beyond the focus on reports at five-year intervals, the One Hundred Year Study engages in other efforts, such as the AI Index, which was spawned as a project of the AI100. The AI Index effort is aimed at provided higher frequency information on rates of progress and trends with AI capabilities.

Standing Committee

The One Hundred Year Study is overseen by a Standing Committee. The Standing Committee considers themes, challenges and opportunities on the influences of AI on people and society, and brings together panels of experts. Expert panels compose reports at five-year intervals. The Standing Committee has a chair. The overall project is overseen by a Faculty Director, who is based at Stanford.

The inaugural Standing Committee was chaired by Barbara Grosz (Harvard), and had as members Alan Mackworth (University of British Columbia), Tom Mitchell (CMU), Deirdre Mulligan (UC-Berkeley), Yoav Shoham (Stanford), Russ Altman (Stanford Faculty Director), and Eric Horvitz as ex officio.

The current Standing Committee is chaired by Peter Stone (University of Texas), and has as members Sheila McIlraith, Mary Gray, Percy Liang, Liz Sonenberg, Patrick Lin, and James Manyika, and Russ Altman.

2015 Study Panel

The 2015 study panel was chaired by Peter Stone (University of Texas) and included a panel of experts.

2016 Report - Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030

The 2015 study panel released a report in September 2016, titled "Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030", examining the mostly-positive effects of AI on a typical North American city where self-driving cars, package-delivering robots and surveillance drones become commonplace. The panel advocated for increased public and private spending on the industry, recommended increased AI expertise at all levels of government, and recommended against blanket government regulation. Panel chair Peter Stone argues that AI won’t automatically replace human workers, but rather, will supplement the workforce and create new jobs in tech maintenance.

Panelists stated that military AI applications were outside their current scope and expertise. Writing in Foreign Policy, Mark Hagerott asked the panelists to give more consideration to security in the future, complaining that "AI and cyber crime get [only] passing reference in the context of credit card crime in this report." While mainly focusing on the next 15 years, the report touched on concerns and expectations that had risen in prominence over the last decade about the risks of superintelligent robots, stating "Unlike in the movies, there's no race of superhuman robots on the horizon or probably even possible. Stone stated that "it was a conscious decision not to give credence to this in the report."

History

In 2014, Eric Horvitz, an American computer scientist and Technical Fellow at Microsoft, first defined and funded with his wife the study at Stanford University. According to Horvitz, the gift, which may increase in the future, is sufficient to fund the study for a century. A Stanford press release stated that sets of committees over a century will "study and anticipate how the effects of artificial intelligence will ripple through every aspect of how people work, live and play." A framing memo for the study calls out 18 topics for consideration, including law, ethics, the economy, war, and crime. Topics include abuses of AI that could pose threats to democracy and freedom and addressing possibilities of superintelligences and loss of control of AI.

References

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