Spoiler campaign
A spoiler campaign (or a spoiler candidate) is one that cannot win but can still determine the outcome by causing a competitive candidate to lose.[1] The spoiler effect is especially prevalent in two-party systems (like the one in the United States) created by first-past-the-post voting instead of the more common proportional representation systems.
United States
Third party candidates have not won more than 5% of the vote in a presidential campaign since 1992, and not won any states' electoral votes since 1968.[2] The two major parties have won 98% of all state and federal seats.[3]
Third party candidates are always controversial because almost anyone could play spoiler.[4][5] This is especially true in close elections where the chances of a spoiler effect increase.[6] Strategic voting, especially prevalent during high political polarization, often leads to a third-party that underperforms its poll numbers with voters wanting to make sure their least favorite candidate is not in power.[7][8] In response, some third-party candidates express ambivalence about which major party they prefer and their possible role as spoiler[9][better source needed] or deny the possibility.[10][better source needed] Candidates prefer to focus on their platform than on their impact on the frontrunners.[5] The spoiler campaigns are more likely to result in the candidate a third party voter least wants in the White House.[5] The US presidential elections most consistently cited as having been spoiled by third-party candidates are 1844, 2000, and 2016.[11][12][13][14][15][16] This phenomenon becomes more controversial when a third-party candidate receives help from supporters of another candidate hoping they play a spoiler role.[17][18][19]
References
- ↑ "The Spoiled Election: Independents and the 2024 Election". Harvard Political Review. April 18, 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-24.
Perot was running what is commonly referred to as a “spoiler campaign,” a campaign that cannot win the election but still impacts its outcome.
- ↑ O'Neill, Aaron (June 21, 2022). "U.S. presidential elections: third-party performance 1892-2020". Statista. Retrieved 2023-05-25.
- ↑ Masket, Seth (Fall 2023). "Giving Minor Parties a Chance". Democracy. 70.
- ↑ Gift, Thomas (2024-01-11). "US election: third party candidates can tip the balance in a tight race – here's why Robert F Kennedy Jr matters". The Conversation. Retrieved 2024-08-27.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Milligan, Susan (March 22, 2024). "The Promise and the Perils of the Third-Party Candidate". US News and World Report.
- ↑ Skelley, Geoffrey (2023-07-13). "Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump — And Spoil The Election For Biden". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on 2024-10-13. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
- ↑ Burden, Barry C. (2024-04-30). "Third parties will affect the 2024 campaigns, but election laws written by Democrats and Republicans will prevent them from winning". The Conversation. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
- ↑ DeSilver, Drew (2024-06-27). "Third-party and independent candidates for president often fall short of early polling numbers". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
- ↑ Selk, Avi (2021-11-25). "Analysis | Green Party candidate says he might be part alien, doesn't care if he's a spoiler in Ohio election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-07-21.
- ↑ Means, Marianne (February 4, 2001). "Opinion: Goodbye, Ralph". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Archived from the original on May 26, 2002. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ Green, Donald J. (2010). Third-party matters: politics, presidents, and third parties in American history. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. pp. 153–154. ISBN 978-0-313-36591-1. Search this book on
- ↑ Devine, Christopher J.; Kopko, Kyle C. (2021-09-01). "Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election". The Forum. 19 (2): 173–201. doi:10.1515/for-2021-0011. ISSN 1540-8884. Unknown parameter
|s2cid=ignored (help) - ↑ Herron, Michael C.; Lewis, Jeffrey B. (April 24, 2006). "Did Ralph Nader spoil Al Gore's Presidential bid? A ballot-level study of Green and Reform Party voters in the 2000 Presidential election". Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Now Publishing Inc. 2 (3): 205–226. doi:10.1561/100.00005039. Pdf.
- ↑ Burden, Barry C. (September 2005). "Ralph Nader's Campaign Strategy in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election". American Politics Research. 33 (5): 672–699. doi:10.1177/1532673x04272431. ISSN 1532-673X. Unknown parameter
|s2cid=ignored (help) - ↑ Roberts, Joel (July 27, 2004). "Nader to crash Dems' party?". CBS News.
- ↑ Haberman, Maggie et al (September 22, 2020) "How Republicans Are Trying to Use the Green Party to Their Advantage." New York Times. (Retrieved September 24, 2020.)
- ↑ Haberman, Maggie; Hakim, Danny; Corasaniti, Nick (2020-09-22). "How Republicans Are Trying to Use the Green Party to Their Advantage". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-07-21.
- ↑ Schreckinger, Ben (2017-06-20). "Jill Stein Isn't Sorry". POLITICO Magazine. Retrieved 2023-06-07.
- ↑ "Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump, reports say". NBC News. December 22, 2018. Retrieved 2023-05-11.
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