Static-99R
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Static-99R is an actuarial risk assessment instrument used to estimate the relative risk of sexual recidivism among adult males who have committed sexual offences. It uses ten static historical and demographic factors associated with sexual recidivism.[1]
Static-99R is a revision of the earlier Static-99 instrument developed by R. Karl Hanson and David Thornton. The revised version was released in 2009 and incorporated revised age weights intended to better account for the relationship between age at release and sexual recidivism.[2][1]
The instrument has been evaluated in multiple jurisdictions and is used in correctional, forensic and legal settings.[3][4]
Development and history
Static-99 originated from the combination of two earlier actuarial measures: the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) and the Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment Scale–Minimum (SACJ-Min).[1]
The RRASOR was developed by R. Karl Hanson as a brief actuarial measure of sexual recidivism risk.[5] Hanson and David Thornton subsequently combined elements of the RRASOR and SACJ-Min to create Static-99.[6]
Research comparing the resulting actuarial measures was published in Law and Human Behavior in 2000.[7]
Subsequent research examined the relationship between increasing age and sexual recidivism. Revised age weights were developed to better account for age at release, resulting in Static-99R.[2]
Static-99R was released for use in 2009. Subsequent research led to updated percentiles, risk ratios, recidivism estimates and nominal risk categories.[1]
Structure and scoring
Static-99R consists of ten items based on historical and demographic information. The items address age at release, history of intimate relationships, index and prior nonsexual violence, prior sexual offences, prior sentencing dates, non-contact sexual offences, unrelated victims, stranger victims and male victims.[1]
Individual item scores are combined to produce a total score. The score is used to position an individual relative to other individuals with histories of sexual offending and can be interpreted using percentiles, relative risk information and estimated recidivism rates.[1]
The instrument is primarily scored using demographic information, criminal records and victim information. The coding rules also provide guidance concerning the use of self-report information and other sources of information.[1]
Intended population
Static-99R was developed for adult males with a history of sexual offending. The coding manual provides specific guidance concerning the populations and circumstances in which the instrument can and cannot appropriately be used, including adolescents, individuals with developmental disabilities and individuals whose current offence is not sexually motivated.[1]
Static-99R is intended to estimate relative risk of sexual recidivism rather than determine whether a particular individual will reoffend.[1]
Predictive validity
Research has generally found moderate predictive discrimination for sexual recidivism. A meta-analysis found that absolute recidivism rates associated with Static-99R scores varied across samples, highlighting the distinction between ranking individuals according to relative risk and estimating absolute recidivism probabilities.[8]
A 2022 review and meta-analysis examined 56 Static-99R studies and evaluated the instrument's predictive accuracy, reliability, strengths, limitations and legal admissibility.[9]
Field research has also examined the performance of Static-99R outside its original development samples. A statewide Texas study examined Static-99/Static-99R scores for 34,687 individuals and reported predictive discrimination in routine field use, while also finding that the routine Static-99R norms overestimated recidivism risk for portions of the Texas sample.[3]
An Australian study of 621 individuals compared Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002 and Static-2002R. The four instruments demonstrated moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, with area-under-the-curve values ranging from .67 to .69 across 5-, 10- and 15-year follow-up periods.[4]
A Swedish validation study examined Static-99R among 146 individuals with mental disorders and histories of sexual offending. The instrument demonstrated discrimination between individuals who did and did not sexually reoffend across follow-up periods ranging from 5 to 20 years.[10]
Cross-cultural validity
The predictive performance of Static-99R across racial and ethnic groups has also been studied.
A 2023 meta-analysis included 17 studies examining the predictive accuracy of Static-99R among racially and ethnically diverse groups of men charged with or convicted of sexually motivated offences. Predictive discrimination was statistically significant across the groups studied. Within-study comparisons found lower predictive accuracy for Indigenous individuals than for White or non-Indigenous individuals. Findings concerning some other groups were limited by the number of available studies.[11]
Research commissioned by Public Safety Canada following the Supreme Court of Canada's decision in Ewert v Canada also examined risk assessment instruments among Indigenous and White Canadian samples. For Static-99R, the research found discrimination for sexual recidivism in both groups, although discrimination was lower in the Indigenous sample.[12]
Use in correctional systems
Static-99R has been incorporated into correctional assessment and program-referral systems.
In Canada, the Correctional Service of Canada uses Static-99R together with other assessment information in its correctional program referral process for men who have sexually offended. Correctional Service Canada policy has specified the use of Static-99R and STABLE-2007 results in determining recommended levels of intervention for sexual-offence programming.[13]
Legal use and admissibility
Static-99 and Static-99R have been used in legal proceedings involving sexual recidivism risk assessment. The 2022 review by Helmus and colleagues examined legal challenges involving the instruments, including challenges under evidentiary standards such as Daubert and Frye, and considered issues relating to reliability, validity, evaluator qualifications and appropriate interpretation.[9]
Limitations
Static-99R measures static historical and demographic factors and does not include all factors that may be relevant to a comprehensive assessment of sexual recidivism risk.[1]
Its average predictive accuracy is moderate rather than deterministic, and absolute recidivism rates associated with particular scores can vary across samples.[8][1]
Field studies have also identified calibration issues. In the large Texas field study, for example, routine Static-99R norms significantly overestimated recidivism risk in that population, particularly for individuals with scores between 1 and 5.[3]
Research examining racial and ethnic groups has identified lower predictive accuracy for Indigenous individuals in some analyses, indicating that population-specific validity and calibration remain relevant considerations when interpreting results.[11][12]
Availability
Public Safety Canada publishes the Static-99R coding rules online. The 2017 Static-99R Coding Rules Revised – 2016 publication is identified as Crown copyright and is available through Public Safety Canada's website.[1]
See also
Actuarial risk assessment Recidivism Risk assessment Ewert v Canada STABLE-2007 ACUTE-2007
References
- ↑ 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 "Static-99R Coding Rules". Public Safety Canada. 2017. Retrieved 28 August 2026.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Helmus, L.; Thornton, D.; Hanson, R. K.; Babchishin, K. M. (2012). "Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: Revised age weights". Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 24 (1): 64–101. doi:10.1177/1079063211409951.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Boccaccini, Marcus T.; Rice, Amanda K.; Helmus, L. Maaike; Murrie, Daniel C.; Harris, Paige B. (2017). "Field validity of Static-99/R scores in a statewide sample of 34,687 convicted sexual offenders". Psychological Assessment. 29 (6): 611–623. doi:10.1037/pas0000377. PMID 28594205.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Reeves, Sophie G.; Ogloff, James R. P.; Simmons, Melanie (2018). "The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?". Sexual Abuse. 30 (8). doi:10.1177/1079063217712216. PMID 28597720.
- ↑ Hanson, R. K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism (Report). User Report 97-04. Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.
- ↑ Hanson, R. K.; Thornton, D. (1999). Static-99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders (Report). User Report 99-02. Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.
- ↑ Hanson, R. K.; Thornton, David (2000). "Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales". Law and Human Behavior. 24 (1): 119–136. doi:10.1023/A:1005482921333.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Helmus, L.; Hanson, R. K.; Thornton, D.; Babchishin, K. M.; Harris, A. J. R. (2012). "Absolute recidivism rates predicted by Static-99R and Static-2002R sex offender risk assessment tools vary across samples: A meta-analysis". Criminal Justice and Behavior. 39 (9): 1148–1171. doi:10.1177/0093854812443648.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Helmus, L. Maaike; Kelley, Sharon M.; Frazier, Annabelle; Fernandez, Yolanda M.; Lee, Seung C.; Rettenberger, Martin; Boccaccini, Marcus T. (2022). "Static-99R: Strengths, limitations, predictive accuracy meta-analysis, and legal admissibility review". Psychology, Public Policy, and Law. 28 (3): 307–331. doi:10.1037/law0000351.
- ↑ "A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses". 2021. PMC 7884330 Check
|pmc=value (help). - ↑ 11.0 11.1 Ahmed, Simran; Lee, Seung C.; Helmus, L. Maaike (2023). "Predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups: A meta-analysis". Law and Human Behavior. 47 (1): 275–291. doi:10.1037/lhb0000517. PMID 36931863 Check
|pmid=value (help). - ↑ 12.0 12.1 "Evaluation of Risk Assessment Tools for Indigenous Individuals with a History of Sexual Crimes: A Response to Ewert case (2018)". Public Safety Canada. 2023. Retrieved 28 August 2026.
- ↑ "Policy Bulletin 554". Correctional Service Canada. Retrieved 28 August 2026.
References
., & Barahal, R. M. (2020). How do professionals assess sexual recidivism risk? An updated survey of practices. Sexual Abuse, 32(1), 3-29.
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