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The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

From EverybodyWiki Bios & Wiki

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
TypeNewsletter
Owner(s)Kathryn Hamm, Amy Walter
Founder(s)Charlie Cook
PublisherAmy Walter
Editor-in-chiefAmy Walter
Founded1984; 40 years ago (1984)
LanguageEnglish
HeadquartersArlington, Virginia, U.S.
WebsiteThe Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Search The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter on Amazon.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. Presidency, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and U.S. governors' offices.[1] Self-described as independent and nonpartisan, it was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. Amy Walter is the editor, publisher, and owner.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter operated as a hard-copy publication known as The Cook Political Report until 2004, when it switched to an all-online format. On July 30, 2021, the publication name changed to The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, as Walter took full control of the website and Cook decided to focus on writing and speeches.[2][3]

Widely regarded as an authoritative source on U.S. elections,[4][5] The Cook Political Report is famous for pioneering the seven-point race rating scale that assesses electoral competitiveness from "Toss Up" to "Solid". It is also known for routinely publishing the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a tool that has measured the partisanship of each congressional district relative to the nation since 1997.[6] Several academic studies have examined the success and influence of the publication's race ratings.[7][8]

Past predictions[edit]

2012[edit]

In the presidential election, Cook rated 21 states (including Washington, D.C.) as at least leaning toward the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama; Obama won all 21 of these states. The Report rated 23 states as at least leaning toward the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney; Romney won all 23 of these states. Cook also listed seven states as "toss-ups": Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Obama ended up winning all of these states except for North Carolina.[9]

In the race for control of the US Senate, Republican candidates won every Senate seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Republican, while Democrats won every Senate seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic. Cook listed ten Senate races as "toss-ups"; Democrats ended up winning eight of these, while Republicans won the other two.[10]

Among governor's races, Cook correctly predicted that Republicans would win control of the North Carolina governorship, which Democrats had previously controlled. Cook also listed three Democratic-held governorships as "toss-ups": Washington; Montana; and New Hampshire. Democrats ended up holding onto all three.[11]

2014[edit]

In the race for control of the US Senate, Cook correctly predicted that Republicans would win control of the Democratic-held Senate seats in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. Cook also listed nine US Senate races as toss-ups; Republicans ended up winning eight of these, while Democrats won only one. Every state Cook listed as at least leaning Republican voted Republican; every state Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic voted Democratic.[12]

Among governor's races, Cook correctly predicted that Democrats would flip the Pennsylvania governorship and that Republicans would flip the Arkansas governorship. Democrats won every state Cook rated as at least leaning Democrat; Republicans won every state Cook rated as at least leaning Republican. Cook also rated 13 governor's races as "toss-ups". Democrats ended up winning three of these, while Republicans won the other nine; an independent, Bill Walker, won the toss-up governor's race in Alaska.[13]

2016[edit]

In the race for control of the US Senate, Cook rated seven Senate seats as "toss-ups", suggesting the two parties had roughly even odds of winning each election. In the end, Democrats won two of these elections and Republicans won five.[14] Cook contributors had expected the toss-up races to break the other way, with Democrats winning most of them.[15] However, Republicans did not win any Senate races that Cook identified as at least leaning toward Democrats; nor did Democrats win any Senate races Cook identified as at least leaning toward Republicans.[14]

In the presidential election, Cook incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; it also rated North Carolina, Florida, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District as "toss-ups".[16] In the end, Trump won all of these states and districts, though for the most part by narrow margins. All of Cook's other final predictions for the presidential election were correct, though Cook had speculated earlier in the year that Democrats had a chance of success in states they did not end up winning, including Arizona and Texas.[17]

Among governor's races, Republicans won every governorship that Cook rated as at least leaning Republican, while Democrats won every governorship Cook rated as at least leaning Democratic. Cook listed six governorships as toss-ups: Missouri, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina. Republicans won Missouri, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Indiana, while Democrats won North Carolina and West Virginia.[18][19]

2017[edit]

New Jersey and Virginia each had open races for governor in 2017. Cook listed the Virginia race as "Lean Democratic" and the New Jersey race as "Likely Democratic".[20] Democrats ended up winning both races by wide margins.[21]

2018[edit]

In the race for control of the US House of Representatives, Cook listed 210 seats that at least leaned toward the Democrats; 194 seats that at least leaned toward the Republicans; and 30 seats that were "toss ups". Democrats ended up winning 235 seats, including all of the seats that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic, as well as most of the "toss ups". However, Cook incorrectly predicted that Republicans would hold onto several seats that Democrats ended up winning, including Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District; South Carolina's 1st Congressional District; and New York's 11th Congressional District.[22]

In the race for control of the US Senate, Democrats won every seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic, while Republicans won every seat Cook listed as at least leaning Republican. Cook also listed nine Senate races as toss-ups; Democrats won four of these races, while Republicans won the other five.[23]

Among governor's races, Democrats won every seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic, while Republicans won every seat Cook listed as at least leaning Republican. Cook also listed 12 governor's races as toss-ups; Republicans and Democrats ended up each winning six of these.[24]

2019[edit]

Three states had elections for governor in 2019: Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Cook rated the Mississippi race as "Lean Republican"; the Republican candidate ended up winning this race by a 5% margin. Cook rated the Louisiana and Kentucky races as "toss-up"; Democrats ended up narrowly winning both of them.[25]

2020[edit]

On October 13, 2020, Cook's Senate and Govs Editor Jessica Taylor tweeted that Democrats were projected to gain seven seats in the United States Senate.[26] On that date, Cook rated 15 Senate seats as at least leaning toward the GOP; 13 seats as at least leaning toward the Democrats; and seven "toss-ups.".[27] After the election, every Senate seat rated Lean, Likely, or Solid Democrat was won by the Democratic candidate, and every seat rated Lean, Likely, or Solid Republican was won by the Republican candidate. Republican candidates won 5 of the 7 "toss-up" seats, with the remaining two (both located in Georgia) going into January runoffs. Both runoffs were won by the Democratic candidates.[28]

For the 2020 presidential election, Cook's final Electoral College ratings predicted that Joe Biden would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes. Notably, Cook correctly predicted that Biden would flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (which all narrowly voted for Donald Trump in 2016), as well as Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd congressional district, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas were all rated as Tossups; Trump won all of the tossups with the exception of Georgia.[29]

For the 2020 House elections, Cook rated 18 seats as Likely Democrat, 18 seats as Lean Democrat, nine Democratic-held seats as Tossups, 18 Republican-held seats as Tossups, 14 seats as Lean Republican, and 12 seats as Likely Republican (with the rest being Solid Democrat or Republican). Here, Cook's projections were significantly more wrong than their 2020 Senate or Presidential ratings: Although they correctly predicted that the Democrats would flip North Carolina's 2nd and 6th districts, as well as Georgia's 7th (all open seats), Republicans won five seats in the Lean Democrat column (California's 48th, Florida's 26th, South Carolina's 1st, Texas' 23rd, Texas' 24th), as well as two seats in the Likely Democrat column (California's 39th district and Florida's 27th district). Republicans also won every seat in the Lean and Likely Republican columns, as well as every Tossup seat (Democrat or Republican-held).[30][31][32][33][34]

2021[edit]

New Jersey and Virginia each had races for governor in 2021. Cook listed the Virginia race as "Tossup" and the New Jersey race as "Solid Democratic".[35] The Republican candidate ended up flipping Virginia by a narrow margin while the Democratic candidate ended up winning New Jersey by a narrow margin.

2022[edit]

In the race for control of the US House of Representatives, Cook listed 187 seats that at least leaned toward the Democrats; 212 seats that at least leaned toward the Republicans; and 36 seats that were "toss-ups". Republicans ended up winning 222 seats, including all but one of the seats that Cook listed as at least leaning Republican which was Washington's 3rd District, as well as a few of the "toss-ups". However, Democrats managed to win a majority of the toss-ups including Ohio's 1st District, New Mexico's 2nd District, and Colorado's 8th District which all flipped narrowly to the Democrats.[36]

In the race for control of the US Senate, Democrats won every seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic, while Republicans won every seat Cook listed as at least leaning Republican. Cook also listed 4 Senate races as toss-ups; Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania which all narrowly went to the Democrats.[37]

Among governor's races, Cook predicted that Democrats would end up with a net gain of two seats which was correct. Democrats won every seat that Cook listed as at least leaning Democratic including Massachusetts and Maryland which flipped to the Democrats by large margins, while Republicans won every seat Cook listed as at least leaning Republican. Cook also listed five governor's races as toss-ups; Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Democrats won all but one narrowly as well as flipping Arizona. However, Nevada flipped to the Republicans by a narrow margin.[38]

2023[edit]

Three states had elections for governor in 2019: Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky. Cook rated the Louisiana and Mississippi races as "Lean Republican"; the Republican candidates ended up winning their races. While Cook rated Kentucky's race as "Lean Democratic", the Democrat won by a 5% margin.[39]

References[edit]

  1. ↑ "The Cook Political Report". Library of Congress. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  2. ↑ Charlie Cook [@CharlieCookDC] (July 30, 2021). "It is now official, Amy Walter is taking over the Cook Political Report, new name "Cook Political Report with Amy Walter." Rest of team will reman in place, I will be spending my time still analyzing politics, writing my columns, giving speeches, helping out CPRwAW" (Tweet). Retrieved July 30, 2021 – via Twitter.
  3. ↑ "Charlie Cook Passes The Baton On 'The Cook Political Report'". NPR. August 7, 2021. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Charlie Cook". National Press Foundation. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  5. ↑ "The Politicians' Weatherman". Forbes. November 6, 2006. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  6. ↑ Kane, Paul (April 8, 2023). "New report outlines the deep political polarization's slow and steady march". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  7. ↑ Campbell, James E. (August 24, 2010). "The Accuracy of the Cook Report's Pre-Labor Day Ratings of Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives" (PDF). Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  8. ↑ Bafumi, Joseph; Erikson, Robert S.; Wlezisn, Christopher (April 2015). "FORECASTING THE 2014 HOUSE SEAT DIVISION IN RETROSPECT". PS: Political Science and Politics. 48 (2): 296-297. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  9. ↑ "Electoral Vote Scorecard". Archived from the original on March 24, 2014.
  10. ↑ "2012 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  11. ↑ "2012 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  12. ↑ "2014 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  13. ↑ "2014 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 "2016 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  15. ↑ "Senate Democrats Poised to Pick up 5-7 Seats". Archived from the original on November 13, 2016.
  16. ↑ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on February 16, 2017. Retrieved May 13, 2020. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  17. ↑ Arrieta-Kenna, Ruairí. "The Worst Political Predictions of 2016". Politico Magazine.
  18. ↑ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  19. ↑ Kabler, Phil. "WV Gov. Justice switching political parties, returning to GOP". Charleston Gazette-Mail.
  20. ↑ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". October 30, 2017. Archived from the original on October 30, 2017.
  21. ↑ "What Went Down On Election Night 2017". November 7, 2017.
  22. ↑ "2018 House Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  23. ↑ "2018 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  24. ↑ "2018 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  25. ↑ "2020 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". Archived from the original on October 31, 2019.
  26. ↑ @JessicaTaylor (October 13, 2020). "We are also increasing our current..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  27. ↑ "2020 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 6, 2022.
  28. ↑ "2020 Final Senate Race Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. November 11, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  29. ↑ "2020 Final Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. November 16, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  30. ↑ "2020 Final House Race Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. November 20, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  31. ↑ Rode, Erin (January 7, 2021). "After objecting to electoral votes, Rep. Garcia says election process has 'run its course'". Ventura County Star. Retrieved November 23, 2021.
  32. ↑ Denkmann, Libby (December 3, 2020). "Four Lessons From The Southern California House Seats Republicans Reclaimed In 2020". LAist. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  33. ↑ Brufke, Juliegrace (April 1, 2021). "Republicans take victory lap after Iowa Democrat drops challenge". The Hill. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  34. ↑ "New York Election Results: 22nd Congressional District". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  35. ↑ "2022 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". October 5, 2021. Archived from the original on October 31, 2021.
  36. ↑ "2022 House Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-04-09.
  37. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-04-09.
  38. ↑ "2022 Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-04-09.
  39. ↑ "2024 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-11-08.

External links[edit]


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