The Repeating Ten-Year Music Cycle
The repeating ten-year music cycle theory suggests that popular music has gone through a repeated series of patterns since 1956.
The theory was first mentioned in the October 1992 issue of radio/music industry magazine T Radio & Records article.[1] This theory has become well known respected and believed in by radio programmers and owners as well as many music label executives since it was first published. The theory suggests that music styles and trends tend to repeat themselves every decade or so, influenced by cultural evolution, artistic innovation and even nostalgia.
Phases[edit]
The Music Cycle is composed of three phases that have repeated around every 10 years since 1956, where the balance of core styles differs from phase to phase and have repeated in this order during almost all of the music cycles
- Birth/Pop Phase: Lots of Pop hits Rock & HipHop/R&B are more pop, more melodic. The music gatekeeper, Top 40 Ratings explode This phase happened beginning in 1956, 1964, 1974 1984 1997 2005 2014. This happened in 2014 where most of the music you heard became very pop You had a maturing former teen star Justin Bieber exploded, Taylor Swift was queen, and EDM breathed new life into Pop Music
- Extremes: The leading edge audience gets bored with Pop sounds and moves toward edges. There are less Pop hits.Younger fans want more intense rock and R&B/HipHop.Examples of that are Extremes dominating with Hard Rock in 1969 Hiphop AND Hard Rock/heavy metal in 1989, and again HipHop in 2018 and sometimes, the Extremes occurs when you get too much of a genre like too much Dance which happened in 1961/62 and 1977-1979 with Disco
- Doldrums: Extreme styles lose their novelty. The Gatekeeper Mainstream Top 40's ratings dip even more. Top 40 adds AC Country Softer Pop to chase adults, upper demo ratings decline R&B and Rock is avoided by Top 40 stations causing a loss teens and young adult listeners and Top 40 ratings dip even more. This phase happened beginning in 1960 1963, 1971, 1980, 1991, 2004, 2010 and 2020
What brings back the Rebirth Phase is when a new Cycle happens, when a genre or an artist or a music platform brings about another change in music.
Rebirth phase[edit]
• Innovation of Sound Through The Emergence of a superstar: Elvis & the Beatles • Innovation New music platform: Cable TV-MTV, Internet & File Trading/Napster TV/American Idol • Innovation & New Technology Providers for music: Mobile phones,Streaming/Spotify
Music Cycle #1 1956 Driving Force-Artist: Exposure through Radio & TV-Elvis Presley Music Cycle #2 1964 Driving Force-Artist: Exposure through Radio & TV- The Beatles Music Cycle #3 1974 Driving Force-The Album Artists Led Zeppelin, Rolling Stones, Fleetwood Mac, Stevie Wonder Music Cycle #4 1984 Driving Force-Platform MTV and its generation of Pop R&B, New Wave and Rock artists Music Cycle #5 1997 Driving Force-A Platform: The Internet and Napster allowing for free music and trading files Music Cycle #6 2005 Driving Force- A Platform Television: American Idol Music Cycle #7 2015 Driving Force-A Platform:Technology: Mobile Phone Streaming Music-Spotify
For 6 out of 7 decades, the Rebirth and a new Music Cycle have occurred in the middle of the decade. When you examine each Rebirth period you can see this by looking at the many of the hits by these artists at that point in time. You saw Elvis 1956 Beatles Rolling Stones 1964, Eagles, Elton, Fleetwood Mac Stevie Wonder 1975, Michael Jackson Madonna The Police 1983-1984, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Beyonce, Fall Out Boy 2005-2006, Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, The Weeknd, Ed Sheeran Twenty One Pilots 2015-2016. The 90s Rebirth occurred 2 years late in 1997 after Top 40 recovered from its ridiculous consultant statements in the New York Times and Washington Post pronouncing that Top 40 could no longer exist as a mass appeal format playing all the hits and all the genres as well as garnering 25-54 adults in 1992 &1993 and that chilled the format ‘til 1997.
In order, for there to be a Rebirth period and a new Music Cycle you need one dominant platform when a majority of music consumers go to discover new music and be able to hear a majority of the music they love. The biggest hits have always risen to the top through exposure creating a consensus of passion and a consensus of opinion by the masses listening for these songs, as the father Of Top 40 radio said it was a “democracy of sound” In other words the hits became that way because through exposure to the masses, listeners then voted on songs by buying records or now by streaming music creating the biggest hits for a mass audience. Right now we are in a period of disruption, where there is no dominant platform(although Spotify is getting there) but even on Spotify there isn’t one place, no one playlist on that platform where a majority of listeners go to hear the best music available from all genres. So we’re still in the Doldrums and certainly the former gatekeeper Radio and especially Top 40/CHR radio is no longer is a dominant force for music discovery or even listenership from the under 30 audience(which was Top 40’s target and driving force. In 2024 we are currently in a Doldrums period for music but seeing positive signs with more genre diversity at Streaming(as well as at Top 40 radio)
The Core Genres for music are • Rock • Pop • R&B These Genres evolve over time.
Genre and Artist Group Definitions:
The music cycle classifications are based on songs that have been hits on the Hot 100 and the genres are based on how they have been defined on music discovery gatekeeper for 60 years Top 40 radio with more genre classifications from the past decade using Wikipedia. Today the gatekeeper crown is worn by Streaming platforms with Spotify certainly #1.
Causes[edit]
The Music Cycle occurs and repeats because the mass’s music tastes move back & forth like a Music Pendulum. Changes happen when one artist OR genre is overplayed, then people burnout. How intense a music cycle depends on how much exposure that genre/artist gets. Burnout happens when a genre or artists are overexposed on many different formats & platforms. Burnout happens when a genre or artists are overexposed on many different formats & platforms. The music pendulum shifts from one side of the music spectrum toward the other.
References[edit]
- ↑ Denver, Joel (1992-10-09). "The Repeating CHR Music Cycle" (PDF). R&R. pp. 34, 36.
Further reading[edit]
- Fong-Torres, Ben (2001). The Hits Keep On Coming: The History of Top 40 Radio. Hal Leonard Corporation. ISBN 9780879306649. Search this book on
- Strauss, Neil (1996-07-21). "Birth and Rebirth On the Airwaves". Pop View. New York Times.
- Zapoleon, Guy (August 2021). "The 10-Year Music Cycle Artists by Phase 1956-2021" (PDF). Guy Zapoleon. Version 4.[self-published source]
- Zapoleon, Guy (2022-02-14). "Music Cycle Updated, Part 1". Consultant Tips. All Access. Mediabase.
- Zapoleon, Guy (2023-12-19). "2023 Marked Fourth Year Of Worst Music Doldrums For Top 40 Radio". Inside Radio.
- Zapoleon, Guy (2024-08-06). "Zapoleon Sees 'Rebirth' On The Way". Radio and Music Pros.
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