The Ten Billion Human Second Century
The Ten Billion Human Second Century is a statistical constant which equals 3 x 1019. It was first coined by mathematician-comedian Matt Parker in his YouTube video about Minecraft YouTuber Dream's speedrun cheating allegations titled "How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained".[1] In the video, Matt Parker uses The Ten Billion Human Second Century to conclusively state that Dream had not used an un-modded, un-altered version of Minecraft in his controversial speedruns and therefore the said speedruns can not be acknowledged by the moderators as legitimate.
Matt Parker describes The Ten Billion Human Second Century as:
"100 years is equivalent to 3.15 x 109 seconds. ...we then multiply that by 10 billion humans (we're rounding up to the maximum number of humans) and this result: 3 x 1019, means that if every single human, ten billion of them, were all doing the same thing, every single second, non stop, around the clock, for a century, that "thing" will have occured 3 x 1019 times. So if anything is plausible, gonna happen as being done by humans, it has to have odds below that. So, if something takes more than a second to do, its odds better be below 3 x 1019, if something is not being done by all 10 billion humans, the odds better be below that. If somthing is not being done constantly for a century, it needs to be below 3 x 1019."
To understand this unit better, let us consider an example of 10 billion ever-lasting robots numbered 1,2,3... and an equal number of buttons numbered the same way. The robots press their corresponding button every second of every day, non stop for a century. By doing this, the robots will have collectively pressed the buttons a total of approximately 3 x 1019 times, or ten billion human second century times. If one of the one billion buttons lit up only once during the century, after being pressed once per second, the odds of a button lighting up would be 1 in ten billion human second century or 1 in 3 x 1019.
De-bunking Dream's Spreedrun[edit]
Dream's odds of Ender Pearl trades and Blaze Rod drops un-refutably stood at 1 in 2 x 1022. Odds worse than 1 in 3 x 1019 would imply that the action would have to be done by at least 10 billion humans, at least once a second and for at least 100 years non stop, for a success to be plausible. Dream had neither been playing non-stop for a century, nor had he finished his speedruns in a second each, nor did he have 10 billion humans playing for him. Hence, Matt Parker concluded that Dream's speedruns could not have been plausibly been done on an unaltered version of Minecraft.
References[edit]
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