The Third Demographic Dividend
Introduction[edit]
The ‘’’Third Demographic Dividend’’’ refers to a potential period after the first and second demographic transitions where society can experience sustained benefits from the social capital of older adults. The first demographic dividend occurs when societies with high fertility and mortality rates experience a drop in child mortality rates, resulting in more children surviving into adulthood. A subsequent decrease in fertility leads to the emergence of a comparatively large labor force having fewer dependents, freeing resources to invest in social capital development (e.g. education) and stimulate the economy, resulting in a second demographic dividend. During this transition, people with longer life expectancies may accrue assets over time, potentially leading to a rise in national wealth and sustainable development. The third demographic dividend posits that there are unrealized assets of the longer life expectancy, especially social capital of older adults, which can lead to economic and societal benefits. Investments in education, disease prevention, health promotion, and social institutions that enable paid and volunteer work by older adults would be needed for the third demographic dividend to be realized.[1]
Global Demographic Shifts[edit]
Globally, lives are lengthening as a result of societal investment in public health, education, poverty alleviation, and medical care. The world is aging as a result. The World Health Organization notes that for the first time in history, most people will live into their 60s or beyond.[2] By 2050, estimates are that one in five people around the world – 2 billion people – will be 60 years or older. This is an increase from 205 million people aged 60 or over in 1950.[3] Not every region around the world will have the same proportion of older adults, but it is expected that all regions will experience an increase in numbers over the coming decades.
Many countries have implemented policies to address concerns about an anticipated drain of resources caused by an aging population. Not all of these policies have been based upon sound economic theory. For instance, many countries have implemented policies under the assumption that earlier retirement was necessary to open up employment for younger generations. A review of such policies in Belgium found that the solution to fostering employment among younger generations is not early retirement, but rather improved integration of the immigrant workforce, education reform, and revised policies regarding unemployment insurance and the minimum wage.[4] This erroneous idea, of there being only a fixed number of jobs, is now often recognized by economists as a “lump of labor fallacy”.[5] Further, emerging data indicate that when older adults can work, more jobs develop for younger adults.[6]
Mechanisms Needed to Achieve a Third Demographic Dividend[edit]
The World Health Organization proposes that health, security, and participation are the three pillars underlying active aging.[7] Active aging, whereby older adults have the cognitive and physical ability to remain engaged in society – whether through paid work or volunteer service or in some other capacity – is foundational to creating the societal benefits that would propel a third demographic dividend. Older adults’ ability to engage and contribute productively to society depends upon health and function. Recent studies find that people who arrive at old age healthy are more likely to remain healthy.[8] In the United States, older adults have reported that disability, generally resulting from chronic diseases or frailty, precludes engagement.[9] Nations that invest in health at every age and stage of life will reap the gains of long life expectancy.[10] Increased medical care, with its higher costs, are not necessarily central to achieve greater health. Evidence suggests that only 10-20% of health is created from clinical care, compared to 60-70% from public health and population based approaches.[11] These cross-sectoral investments in public health have been identified as having a high potential return on investment by the Word Economic Forum.[12] [13] The Third Demographic Dividend framework posits that appropriate investments have the potential to produce a long-lived and healthy older population; these include higher educational levels, and education recurrently over longer lives and populations, as well as individually targeted approaches to preventative disease and promoting health and function, plus effective medical care. Under these conditions, and with investments in social protections for older age, and societal measures to support productive engagement in ways that are significant to older adults, a third demographic dividend could be created. Instead of older age becoming a long-term period of dependency, the third demographic dividend promotes the possibility inherent in unleashing the social capital of older adults so as to provide social and economic benefits to society.[14]
Examples[edit]
Several programs exist that demonstrate the potential societal benefit from the Third Demographic Dividend. The Uganda Rural Development and Training University (URDT) offers community engagement and income to older adults by having them provide vocational training to rural youth who have migrated to cities, in team with middle-aged adults with business expertise. The program has benefitted older persons, as well as brought many young people back to their rural communities, where they are better positioned to take on successful roles and have a higher standard of living.[15] Experience Corps is another multi-generation intervention that was created to harness the social capital of older people to improve school success for young children, while simultaneously improving the health and compressing the morbidity of the older volunteers. The program is now operational in over 20 U.S. cities and several international locations.[16] [17] Preliminary research has shown the program to be cost effective[18] and to increase the test scores of school children.[19] The research has also shown the program to improve strength, mobility, cognition, and mental health and lessen cognitive decline in older adults.[20]
See Also[edit]
Demographic dividend Dependency ratio
References[edit]
- ↑ Linda P. Fried, MD, MPH; Building a Third Demographic Dividend: Strengthening Intergenerational Well-Being in Ways That Deeply Matter. Public Policy Aging Rep 2016; 26 (3): 78-82. doi: 10.1093/ppar/prw015
- ↑ World Health Organization. Global Strategy and Action Plan on Ageing and Health. [1]
- ↑ United Nations Population Fund. Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and A Challenge [2]
- ↑ The Effects of Early Retirement on Youth Unemployment: The Case of Belgium. Prepared by Alain Jousten, M. Lefèbvre, S. Perelman and P. Pestieau. February 2008. The International Monetary Fund. [3]
- ↑ Wikipedia Lump of labour fallacy
- ↑ Beard JR, Biggs S, Bloom DE, Fried LP, Hogan P, Kalache A, Olshansky SJ, eds. Global Population Ageing: Peril or Promise. World Economic Forum, Geneva, 2011. eBook: [4]
- ↑ World Health Organization. (2002). Active Ageing: A Policy Framework. World Health Organization. Retrieved July 11, 2017: [5]
- ↑ Anderson, N. D., Damianakis, T., Kröger, E., Wagner, L. M., Dawson, D. R., Binns, M. A., … BRAVO Team. (2014). The benefits associated with volunteering among seniors: A critical review and recommendations for future research. Psychological Bulletin, 140(6), 1505–1533. doi: 10.1037/a0037610
- ↑ Fried, LP. Older women: Health status, knowledge, and behavior. Women’s Health, The Commonwealth Fund Survey. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ Pr.
- ↑ Fried, L.P. (2014). The Third Demographic Dividend and the Challenge of Longer Lives. Huffington Post. Accessed at: [6]
- ↑ Schroeder, S. A. (2007). We can do better—Improving the health of the American people. New England Journal of Medicine, 357, 1221–1228. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa073350
- ↑ World Economic Forum. (2015). Future of ‘healthy.’ Retrieved February 24, 2016, from [7]
- ↑ Carr DC, Fried LP, Rowe JW (2015). Productivity & engagement in an aging America: The role of volunteerism. Daedalus 144(2): 55-67. doi: 10.1162/DAED_a_00330
- ↑ Linda P. Fried, MD, MPH; Building a Third Demographic Dividend: Strengthening Intergenerational Well-Being in Ways That Deeply Matter. Public Policy Aging Rep 2016; 26 (3): 78-82. doi: 10.1093/ppar/prw015
- ↑ Uganda Rural Development and Training Program (URDT). (2014). Mission and methodology. Retrieved February 24, 2016, from [8]
- ↑ Experience Corps. (2014). American association for retired persons. Retrieved February 24, 2016, from [9]
- ↑ Glass TA, Freedman M, Carlson MC, Hill J, Frick KD, Ialongo N, McGill S, Rebok GW, Seeman T, Tielsch JM, Wasik BA, Zeger S, Fried LP (2004). Experience Corps®: design of an intergenerational program to boost social capital and promote the health of an aging society. Journal of Urban Health 81(1):94-105. PMID 15047788
- ↑ Frick, K. D., Carlson, M. C., Glass, T. A., McGill, S., Rebok, G. W., Simpson, C., & Fried, L. P. (2004). Modeled cost-effectiveness of the Experience Corps Baltimore based on a pilot randomized trial. Journal of Urban Health, 81, 106–117. doi:10.1093/jurban/jth097
- ↑ Rebok GW, Carlson MC, Glass TA, McGill S, Hill J, Wasik BA, Ialongo N, Frick KD, Fried LP, Rasmussen MD (2004). Short-term impact of Experience Corps® participation on children and schools: results from a pilot randomized trial. Journal of Urban Health 81(1):79-93. PMID 15047787
- ↑ Tan EJ, Xue QL, Li T, Carlson MC, Fried LP (2006). Volunteering: a physical activity intervention for older adults – The Experience Corps® program in Baltimore. Journal of Urban Health 83(5):954-969. PMID 16763775
This article "The Third Demographic Dividend" is from Wikipedia. The list of its authors can be seen in its historical and/or the page Edithistory:The Third Demographic Dividend. Articles copied from Draft Namespace on Wikipedia could be seen on the Draft Namespace of Wikipedia and not main one.
