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Timeline of the 2019–2020 Persian Gulf crisis

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Timeline[edit]

May 2019: First Gulf of Oman ship attacks and rise in tensions[edit]

On 12 May, four commercial ships, including two Saudi Aramco oil tankers, were damaged near the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.[1] The United Arab Emirates claimed the incident was a "sabotage attack", while a United States assessment reportedly blamed Iran or Iranian "proxy" elements for the attack.[2]

On 13 May, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad said that U.S. citizens should not travel to Iraq and for those who were already there to keep a low profile. On the same day, the New York Times reported that Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presented a military plan to send as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East if Iran attacked American forces or took steps toward developing nuclear weapons. U.S. President Donald Trump later discredited this, saying that he would instead "send a hell of a lot more" than 120,000 troops if necessary.[3]

On 14 May, both Iranian and U.S. officials said they were not seeking war, even as threats and counter-threats continued. Ayatollah Khamenei downplayed the escalation, saying in comments carried on state television that "no war is going to happen," while Mike Pompeo said while on a visit to Russia, "We fundamentally do not seek a war with Iran." On the same day, Houthi rebels in Yemen carried out multiple drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline deep in Saudi territory. The U.S. stated that it believed Iran sponsored the attack, though it was unclear if the attack was particularly related to the Iran-U.S. tensions or related to the Yemeni Civil War that began in 2015 and the US-backed, Saudi Arabian-led intervention there.[4] On 15 May, the U.S. State Department announced that all non-emergency staff had been ordered to leave the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.[5]

On 19 May, Trump warned that in the event of a conflict, it would be "the official end of Iran."[6] Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded that Trump's "genocidal taunts" would not "end Iran".[7] On the same day, a rocket exploded inside the heavily fortified Green Zone sector of Baghdad, landing less than a mile from the U.S. Embassy.[8] On 24 May, the U.S. deployed 1,500 additional troops to the Persian Gulf region as a "protective" measure against Iran. The deployment included reconnaissance aircraft, fighter jets and engineers; 600 of the troops were given extended deployments, meaning 900 would be fresh troops.[9][9] U.S. Navy vice admiral and Director of the Joint Staff Michael Gilday said the U.S. had a high degree of confidence that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was responsible for the 12 May explosions on four tankers and that it was Iranian proxies in Iraq that fired rockets into Baghdad's Green Zone.[10]

On 20 May, Trump said: "We have no indication that anything's happened or will happen" in Iran.[11] On 25 May, Trump, declaring that ongoing tensions with Iran amounted to a national emergency, invoked a rarely used legal loophole to approve the sale of $8 billion worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia. Weapons would also reportedly be sold to the UAE and Jordan.[12] On 28 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency certified that Iran was abiding by the main terms of the JCPOA, although questions were raised on how many advanced centrifuges Iran was allowed to have, as that was only loosely defined in the deal.[13]

June 2019[edit]

On 1 June, President Hassan Rouhani suggested that Iran would be willing to hold talks but asserted that it would not be pressured by sanctions and American military posturing. On 2 June, Mike Pompeo stated that the U.S. was ready for unconditional discussions with Iran on its nuclear program, but affirmed that it would not relent on pressuring Iran until it starts behaving like a "normal country". "We are prepared to engage in a conversation with no pre-conditions. We are ready to sit down," Pompeo said, while also stating that Trump had always been willing to seek dialogue with Iranian leadership. Iran's foreign ministry responded stating, "The Islamic Republic of Iran does not pay attention to word-play and expression of hidden agenda in new forms. What matters is the change of U.S. general approach and actual behavior toward the Iranian nation," which it said needed "reform".[14] The softening dialogue came amid U.S. military exercises in the Arabian Sea, which saw various aircraft "simulating strike operations"; Yahya Rahim Safavi, top military aide to Ayatollah Khameini, said that U.S. military vessels in the Persian Gulf were within range of Iranian missiles and warned that any clash between the two countries would push oil prices above $100 a barrel.[15]

U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman blamed Iran for tanker attacks.

On 6 June, the Houthis in Yemen shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) drone. The US military claimed the attack was performed with Iranian assistance.[16] U.S. Central Command commander Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. warned that Iran and its "proxy" forces still posed an "imminent" threat to U.S. forces: "I think we're still in the period of what I would call tactical warning...The threat is very real."[17]

Also on 6 June, the UAE, supported by Norway and Saudi Arabia, told the United Nations Security Council that the 12 May attacks had the marks of a "sophisticated and coordinated operation," and were most likely performed by a "state actor". Video of the damage to the tankers Amjad, Al Marzoqah, A Michel and Andrea Victory was released to broadcasters.[18][19]

Second Gulf of Oman ship attacks[edit]

On 13 June 2019 two oil tankers caught fire after allegedly being attacked by limpet mines or flying objects in another incident in the Gulf of Oman. As in the May incident, the U.S. blamed Iranian forces for the attacks. On 17 June, the U.S. announced the deployment of 1,000 more soldiers to the Middle East.[20]

Fresh sanctions and Iranian shoot-down of U.S. drone[edit]

USS Boxer seen here off the coast of Australia, was deployed to the Persian Gulf in June 2019 as a result of increased tensions between US and Iran.[21]

Tensions reached a new high when, on 20 June, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down a U.S. RQ-4A Global Hawk surveillance drone, saying that the drone violated Iranian airspace. IRGC commander Hossein Salami called the shoot-down a "clear message" to the U.S. while also warning that, though they were not seeking war, Iran was "completely ready" for it. U.S. Central Command later confirmed that the drone was shot down by Iranian surface-to-air missiles but denied that it violated Iranian airspace, calling it an "unprovoked attack" and in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz.[22] Iran and the United States provided conflicting GPS coordinates for the drone's location, making it unclear whether the drone was within Iran's 12-mile territorial boundary.[23] The United States requested a 24 June closed-door United Nations Security Council meeting to address the regional tensions with Iran, according to diplomats.[24]

Trump ordered a retaliatory military strike on Iran on 20 June, but withdrew the order minutes before the operation began. Trump said that he had decided to halt the operation after being told that as many as 150 Iranians would be killed, although some administration officials said Trump had been advised of the potential casualties before he ordered the operation to be prepared.[25] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton reportedly objected to the reversal.[26][27]

On 22 June, it was reported that Trump had approved cyber attacks that disabled IRGC computer systems used to control rocket and missile launches the night of the drone-downing. The cyber strikes were handled by U.S. Cyber Command in conjunction with U.S. Central Command. It represented the first offensive show of force since Cyber Command was elevated to a full combatant command in May 2018. Also on 22 June, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a warning to U.S. industries that Iran is stepping up cyber attacks of critical industries — particularly oil, gas and other energy sectors — and government agencies, and has the potential to disrupt or destroy systems.[28]

On 23 June, Iranian Major General Gholam Ali Rashid warned the U.S. of "uncontrollable" consequences should a conflict break out. During a speech in Israel, Bolton said Iran should not "mistake U.S. prudence and discretion for weakness," emphasizing that future military options are not ruled out and that Trump had only "stopped the strike from going forward at this time".[29][30] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the Persian Gulf region for talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in a bid to build a coalition to combat perceived Iranian nuclear and "terror" ambitions. Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani blamed the United States' "interventionist military presence" for the high tensions.[31]

On 24 June, Trump announced new sanctions against the Iranian and IRGC leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his office.[32][33] U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the sanctions will block "billions" in assets.[34] On the same day, Trump told reporters that he did not need congressional consent for an initial strike on Iran.[35]

In classified briefings, Pompeo and other U.S. State Department and Pentagon officials reportedly advised members of the U.S. Congress on what they described as alarming ties between Iran and al-Qaeda — including giving the terrorist organization safe haven in the country. The New York Times reported that lawmakers were leery of assertions of Iranian links to al-Qaeda, notably due to concerns that the administration may be using specious assertions to build a case for military action against Iran based on the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists — supposed links between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda were used as partial justification to invade Iraq in 2003.[36][37] On 27 June, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Mulroy flatly denied that Pentagon officials linked al-Qaeda to Iran during Congressional meetings. "In these briefings, none of the officials mentioned al-Qa'ida or the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force," Mulroy stated, adding that he and the Defense Intelligence Agency instead "described the historical ties between Iran and the Taliban, and I explained that these ties are widely and publicly known and referenced in articles and books".[38]

On 25 June, Iran said that the new U.S. sanctions prompted a "permanent closure" of their diplomatic ties, and the regime refused to negotiate with Washington until the sanctions were lifted.[39] On 27 June, Javad Zarif tweeted that sanctions are not an "alternative to war; they ARE war" and argued that Trump's usage of the term "obliteration" against Iran is a reference to genocide, a war crime. He also said that negotiations and threats are "mutually exclusive" and called the concept of there only being a short war with Iran an "illusion".[40]

Following the drone shoot-down, the U.S. continued unabated to deploy military assets to the region. By 28 June, the U.S. had deployed nearly a dozen F-22 Raptor fighter jets to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar – the first ever deployment of F-22s to the base – to "defend American forces and interests".[41]

July 2019[edit]

Alleged U.S. downing of Iranian drones[edit]

External video
Video captured by an IRGC drone from USS Boxer, July 18th, 2019

On 18 July, according to the Pentagon, USS Boxer took defensive action against an Iranian drone that had closed with the ship in the Persian Gulf to approximately 1,000 yards (910 m) and jammed the drone, causing it to crash. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied any of the country's drones had been brought down.[42] U.S. General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., commander of the U.S. Central Command, subsequently claimed that USS Boxer may have downed a second Iranian drone.[43]

British and Iranian tanker seizures[edit]

On 3 July, Gibraltar enacted "Sanctions Regulations 2019"[44][45][46] after the March 2019 Sanctions Act,[47] referring to the EU sanctions for Syria (EU No. 36/2012).[48] It also specified the Panama-flagged Iranian tanker Grace 1 as a ship under those regulations.[49] On 4 July, the ship was seized by British authorities while carrying out an off-port limited logistics stop in Gibraltar, on suspicion that the vessel was carrying oil to Syria in breach of European Union sanctions. A force of 30 Royal Marines boarded the ship from a helicopter and speedboat, accompanied by Royal Gibraltar Police officers and HM Customs Gibraltar officers.[citation needed] Four of the ship's crew, including the captain and chief officer, were arrested but subsequently released on bail without charge.[50] Iran demanded the ship's release and denied that the vessel was violating sanctions, and an official of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a threat to seize a British ship in retaliation.[51][52] Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei described the incident as a British act of "piracy" which has been given a "legal appearance".[53] Britain offered to release the ship in exchange for an Iranian guarantee that it would not proceed to the Syrian port of Baniyas to deliver oil to the refinery there. On 11 July, the Royal Navy frigate HMS Montrose foiled an Iranian attempt to capture the BP-owned British oil tanker British Heritage, as it transited through the Strait of Hormuz. Three boats believed to be from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps approached the tanker and tried to halt it, after which HMS Montrose, which had been shadowing the tanker, moved between the boats and the tanker and trained guns on the boats, warning them to back off. The Iranian boats then turned away.[54][55] The Royal Navy subsequently deployed the destroyer HMS Duncan to the Persian Gulf to reinforce HMS Montrose.[56]

On 14 July, a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker, MT Riah, which was operating in the United Arab Emirates, disappeared from ship tracking maps near Iran after crossing the Strait of Hormuz.[53] Adding to the mystery, no entity claimed ownership of the tanker.[57]

British-flagged tanker Stena Impero

On 20 July, the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero was seized in a raid by Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces. Four small boats and a helicopter stopped the ship and Iranian commandos rappelled on board from the helicopter. The ship was taken to Bandar Abbas and its crew of 23 detained on board. On 4 September, Iran decided to free only seven crew members of the detained British tanker.[58] A second British-owned and Liberian-flagged ship was also seized but later allowed to continue its journey.[59][60][61] In a letter to the UN, Iran stated that the Stena Impero had collided with and damaged an Iranian vessel, and ignored warnings by Iranian authorities.[62][63]

The ship's seizure sparked a diplomatic crisis between the United Kingdom and Iran. The British government condemned the seizure of the ship and demanded its release, warning of "serious consequences" if the tanker was not released.[64] Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi visited Iran to negotiate the release of Stena Impero at the request of the British government. Iran confirmed that it seized the ship as retaliation over the British seizure of Grace 1 in Gibraltar and hinted that it would be willing to release Stena Impero in exchange for the release of Grace 1.[65]

On 31 July, the United States sanctioned the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, making a diplomatic solution even less likely.[66]

August 2019: Seizure of Iraqi tanker and Grace 1 controversy continues[edit]

On 4 August 2019, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized an Iraqi tanker for allegedly smuggling oil to other Arab Countries. The 7 crew members on board were detained further heightening tensions in the Persian Gulf. It was just 3 days later that Britain and eventually Israel joined the Sentinel Program to protect oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

On 15 August, Gibraltar released Grace 1[49] after receiving assurances the oil would not be sold to an EU sanctioned entity,[67][68] and after rejecting a request from the United States Department of Justice to seize the ship.[69] The Iranian government later stated that it had issued no assurances that the oil would not be delivered to Syria and reasserted its intention to continue supplying oil to the Arab nation.[70][71][72][73] On 16 August, the Department of Justice issued a warrant in Washington, DC to seize Grace 1, the cargo of oil, and $995,000 on the grounds that the profit from the ship's voyage was intended to enrich the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the US had previously designated a terrorist organization.[74] On 18 August, Gibraltar announced that its Justice Ministry had rejected the US warrant, as U.S. sanctions against Iran did not apply in the European Union, and the ship, renamed Adrian Darya 1 and registered under the Iranian flag, was expected to sail imminently from Gibraltar.[75][76]

After releasing the ship, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the tanker and its captain and inputted them in the blacklist.[77] Some days later, Brian Hook, the State Department point man on Iran, sent emails to the Indian captain of the ship and offered some million dollars in US cash to steer the Adrian Darya 1 to a country where it could be seized by United States Armed Forces; but he rejected these offers.[78]

September 2019: Saudi Aramco attacks and release of Stena Impero[edit]

On 3 September, Iran announced that the oil tanker has delivered its cargo, defying the US threats. Satellite imagery had showed the tanker near Syria.[79] On 9 September, Britain's foreign minister accused Iran of selling the oil that was carried in Adrian Darya to Assad's regime.[80] Iran stated the oil had been sold to a private company which is not an EU sanctioned entity, so its assurance to Gibraltar had not been breeched.[81][68]

On 14 September, the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack took place - a coordinated Cruise missile and drone attack that targeted the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia. The Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, tying it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni Civil War. However, claims made by some United States officials that the attacks originated in Iran, despite Iran's denial, have strained the current Persian Gulf crisis.[82]

On 16 September 2019, Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized another vessel near the Iran's Greater Tunb island in the Persian Gulf. It was reported that the vessel was allegedly smuggling 250,000 litres of diesel fuel to the United Arab Emirates.[83]

On 27 September 2019, the British oil tanker Stena Impero departed from Iranian waters after around two months in Iranian detention.[84][85][86] The remainder of the ship's 23 crew members who were detained in Iran were released as well,[87][88] with seven crew members already released on 4 September.[89] On 28 September, Stena Impero, which was also able to transmit signals,[86] docked at Port Rashid, Dubai.[90] The same day, HMS Duncan returned to her homeport, Portsmouth naval base.[91]

On 23 September 2019, the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani criticized the new U.S.-led coalition patrolling the region's waterways, and asked the western powers to leave the security of the Persian Gulf.[92]

November 2019: IMSC launches operations[edit]

On 7 November 2019, the U.S.-led naval coalition International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) launched official operations in Bahrain to protect the shipping lanes near the troubled Iranian territorial waters. The coalition opened its command center in the country, to ward off the perceived threat to the global oil supply.[93]

December 2019: U.S. airstrikes on Iraqi militia and attack on Baghdad embassy[edit]

U.S. Marines arrive in Baghdad to reinforce the U.S. embassy after its attacked by Iran-backed militiamen, 31 December 2019

In early December, the Pentagon considered sending reinforcements to the Middle East to deal with escalating tensions due to attacks against international shipping through the Persian Gulf, a missile strike against a Saudi oil facility, violent crackdown of protests in Iran, and heightened Iranian activities in the region. The number of people dead in Iranian demonstrations remained disputed, though Iran has not released any official estimates. U.S. special representative for Iran Brian Hook announced that his country was offering $15 million for information concerning the whereabouts of Abdul Reza Shahalai, a senior Iranian commander accused of orchestrating numerous attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and a foiled attempt to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States.[94]

On 29 December, U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian backed Shiite militia in Iraq and Syria killing 25 militants and injuring at least 55 others. The U.S. Department of Defense said the operation was in retaliation for repeated attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) coalition forces, particularly 27 December 2019 attack on a Kirkuk airbase that left an American civilian contractor dead and 4 US soldiers wounded.[95][96] Kata'ib Hizbollah, a Shi'ite Muslim militia which has links to Iran,[97] has denied responsibility for the attacks.[98]

On 31 December, Iran-backed militiamen stormed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, forcing American diplomats to evacuate to safe rooms. The militia later withdrew. An additional 100 U.S. Marines were sent to reinforce the Embassy. About 5,000 U.S. troops were present in Iraq to deal with what remained of ISIS and to assist the Iraqi military. Embassy personnel began packing their bags just in case.[96]

January 2020: Baghdad International Airport airstrike[edit]

A major flashpoint in the crisis occurred on 3 January 2020, when President Donald Trump approved the targeted killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, Iraq. Iraqi paramilitary leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was also killed in the drone attack. Some analysts warned that Iran might retaliate. "From Iran’s perspective, it is hard to imagine a more deliberately provocative act," said Robert Malley, the president of the think tank International Crisis Group. "And it is hard to imagine that Iran will not retaliate in a highly aggressive manner."[99] In preparation for retaliatory attacks from Iran, the U.S. deployed an additional 3,000 ground troops to the Middle East, in addition to 14,000 already stationed there since May the previous year.[100]

On 4 January, Donald Trump tweeted a warning against Iran of attacking Americans or the US assets. He stated that the US is "targeting" 52 Iranian sites and will strike "very fast and very hard".[101]

On 4 January, Britain sent two warships, HMS Montrose and HMS Defender, to the Persian Gulf to protect their ships and citizens. The Royal Navy was deployed to accompany British-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz.[102]

On January 4, thousands of people in 70 cities across the country protest against a new war in the Middle East.[103] The White House officially notifies Congress about the airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, in accordance with the 1973 War Powers Resolution.[104]

On January 5, the Iraqi parliament votes to expel U.S. troops from the country.[105] [106] [107]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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  68. 68.0 68.1 Picardo, Fabian (13 September 2019). Today 13/09/2019. Today. BBC Radio 4. Event occurs at 1h:52m:57s. Retrieved 16 September 2019. Chief Minister of Gibraltar Fabian Picardo: We did not have an undertaking that the oil would not end up in Syria. We had an undertaking from the Iranian government that they would not sell the oil to any EU sanctioned entity, that means not just Syria, it means even entities, some of them in Iran and subject to EU sanctions. Now what we have heard from the Iranian ambassador is that the National Iranian Oil Company, who are the ones who asserted ownership of the vessel and the oil, did not in fact sell the oil or indeed the vessel to any sanctioned EU entity. ... [the oil] has ended up in Syria, but that is not to say that there has been a breech of the undertaking. Those too we need to look at in terms of substance but we need to look at in terms of form also. ... It wasn't the court that made the decision, it was the Government of Gibraltar ... because I was required under the regulations to despecify the vessel and therefore the court injunction fell away, and the reason I was required to despecify the vessel ... was that the only reason we had to continue the detention of the vessel was whilst we had the suspicion that it was going to be sold to an EU sanctioned entity. Once we had a written undertaking from a state recognised by the United Nations, in a note verbale provided to us directly, that the oil was not going to be provided to an EU sanctioned entity we actually had no jurisdiction to keep it.
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  84. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named stenaimpero1
  85. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named stenaimpero2
  86. 86.0 86.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named stenaimpero3
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  99. Wu, Nicholas; Brook, Tom Vanden (January 3, 2020). "US to send 3,000 more soldiers to the Middle East in the wake of Qasem Soleimani killing". World. USA Today. Retrieved January 3, 2020. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
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  102. Activists across the US and the world protest a possible war with Iran Ryan Prior and Alisha Ebrahimji, CNN, Jan 4, 2020 Outraged Americans condemn US actions in Iraq and Iran: 'Enough with this nonsense' Grace Hauck & Chris Woodyard, USA Today, Jan 4, 2020
  103. White House sends Congress formal notification of Soleimani strike RACHEL FRAZIN, The Hill, Jan 4, 2020
  104. Iraq’s Parliament calls for expulsion of US troops from the country following drone attack Stephen Sorace, Fox News, Jan 5, 2020
  105. Iraq's parliament votes to expel US military REGINA ZILBERMINTS AND JUSTINE COLEMAN, The Hill, Jan 5, 2020
  106. Qasem Soleimani: Iraqi MPs back call to expel US troops BBC News, Jan 5, 2020


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