Trend Receiver
The Trend Receiver concept is a method for identifying suitable conversation partners when conducting studies on future lifeworlds or developing brands, products and services in future contexts and under changing market conditions. The concept contributes to mid and long-term vision finding and strategic decision and development processes by combining both customer insight and foresight elements. It was developed by Dr. Rupert Hofmann in 2010.
Definition of Trend Receivers
“Trend Receivers are individuals who perceive changes and potentials of the new in a specific domain in a highly sensitive and differentiated way”.[1] Trend Receivers are very well connected, have profound opinions about what motivates individuals and observe changes in society in a very reflective way. Their visionary competence is created by the interplay of the following characteristics:[2]
- Context experience: Trend Receivers have a profound understanding of the specific context due to their consumption and usage experiences and are thus familiar with the motive and value sets of consumers.
- Self-abstraction ability: By using individual preferences and emotions as points of reference, Trend Receivers know the needs and patterns of other customer groups.
- Curiosity and heterogeneity: Interested in consumer habits, lifestyle issues and the differentiation among social backgrounds, Trend Receivers are very curious about people from different backgrounds. They have a broad networked and have access to different ways of thinking and diverse and international sources of information.
- Selection competence: Having a strong desire to understand causes and correlations, Trend Receivers have sharpened their competence to filter and perceive which structures, motives and values remain stable and to what extent new behavior patterns can emerge. They are able to recognize analogies and paradigms.
- Biographical discontinuities: Trend Receivers often show discontinuities in their biographies. They are sensitive to complexity and changes in life.
- Communication competence: An outstanding communication competence enables Trend Receivers to translate perceptions into a precise and descriptive language and to respond precisely to questions they are asked.
These characteristics enable Trend Receivers to identify developments much better than ordinary customers from a representative sample and allow them to assess trends in their relevance, identify new things early and provide a coherent description of a possible or desirable everyday life in a few years’ time.[3][2][4]
Objectives of the Concept
The objective of the concept is to offer statements, observations and expressed wishes of visionary customers. These projections are based on own customer experiences with perceived drivers of change. On this basis, the outcome of the Trend Receiver dialogues, e.g. talks with 10 Trend Receivers per relevant region, can contribute to decision and development processes. In general, independent of the type of research (qualitative or quantitative), the selection of respondents is of great importance. In market research, the selection is based on sociodemographic criteria within the markets of interest. However, when decisions are made for long time horizons or concern future life worlds, changes in market conditions and customer needs can arise.[1][5] The following figure represents this strategic paradox that companies are confronted with by the example of the automotive industry: decisions have to be made for the long run even though the future is unpredictable and is characterized by uncertainty with regards to future market and consumption patterns.[2]
In this case, classic market research approaches lack explanatory power. The choice of the right conversation partner is especially relevant for investment-intensive and long-term decisions: visionary customers who help defining opportunities and threats.[1][2] The Trend Receiver Concept offers an answer to the question of whom to talk to in this context. It is a guideline helping to identify suitable individuals and to design resulting interactions with them.[5][6]
The Concept: Classification and Elements
By examining various concepts in the area of trend and innovation research such as Lead Users, Early Adopters and Influencers, a typology was developed within the Trend Receiver Concept. This typology is called ‘Agents of the New’ and distinguishes three overarching categories: “inventors” who are thinking up and designing the new, “multipliers” who are early users spreading the new and “trend observers” who are perceiving and reflecting invention, diffusion, and normalization processes.[5]
An important aspect for practice applications, is to identify concrete visionary customers who fit the context of the brand, product or service that needs to be decided or developed. The concept pleads for a tailored approach in order to meet individual research goals and to fulfill the complexities of research questions. Tools to apply at this stage are individual or context specific lists of criteria and search profiles for which the above-mentioned characteristics can serve as a basis. In the next step, intermediaries are asked to scan their networks for individuals meeting the search profiles who then also suggest others. In many cases, only a handful of people are eligible and out of those, the final selection is made. Consequently, the search process follows the pyramiding technique.[1]
Another important element of the Trend Receiver Concept is the setup of the conversations. The dialogues should be conducted at eye level, be held very openly and the conversation partners’ time, reflection and projection abilities should be valued.[5] Generally, very high internal involvement is needed for successful Trend Receiver projects. The following figure visualizes the stages of a common trend receiver project.[1]
An important aspect to keep in mind at this point, is that Trend Receiver dialogues should only be one if many inputs within the iterative process of a research project. This means that findings and impulses should be continuously reflected on and interwoven with other research strands.[7] The concept was based on a research and PHD project of Rupert Hofmann at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg in cooperation with the market and trend research department of Audi AG (2007-2010). Since its first publication, the concept has been applied and refined in various research and practice formats and contexts. Some of these practice applications are outlined in the following.
Use Cases of the Trend Receiver Concept
Tuesday 2025
“It’s a Tuesday morning in the year 2025. Earth is home to some 8 billion people, all working, providing for their families, and living ordinary lives. But what will be normal in 2025? That’s the starting point for the journey to the future. The objective of the project that was carried out by Z-Punkt and Audi was to derive insights into product and brand design as well as appropriate commercial and sales models based on an in-depth understanding of the future reality of Audi customers.” [8]
Easy Rider - Autonomous Driving from a Market and Customer Perspective
The objective of the project was to understand potentials and concerns from the customers’ point of view regarding autonomous driving. The intention was to gather clues and answers to the question of what an attractive car and mobility environment could look like when considering expanded technical possibilities.[9][4]
The following figure visualizes the iterative process that the concept is incorporated in and how it was interwoven with other research streams during the Easy Rider study.[9]
Cross Industry Study 'How do we want to live in 10 years?'
In 2017/18, four companies (Audi, BSH, Hornbach, and an international furniture brand) carried out an international lifeworlds study, which sought cross-industry access and focused on the question: "How do we want to live in 10 years?” On the basis of an intensive, multi-methodical study involving various research institutes, universities and experts, a diverse knowledge base was created. According to the concept of a broad "corridor of the possible and likely", which was to be coupled with a personal and general reflection on the desirable everyday life, the aforementioned analysis was followed by a content-related discussion in the project team and then by an iterative series of international discussions with 30 Trend Receivers in Europe, China and the US. In individual conversations lasting several hours, the participants were asked how their everyday lives in areas such as mobility, nutrition, finances or leisure could and should develop in the next 10 years. This finally led to the question which products and services would contribute to the respective projected everyday situations in a few years' time and what this would mean for different brands and business models.
The results of this study are used by partner companies for keynote speeches at internal and external conferences and management events, for various workshop formats and as a source of inspiration and information for the further development of brands, products, services, trade networks, business models and organization.
The cross-industry approach as well as integrated research formats were extended significantly in the following: In 2019 “The Foresight Academy, a cross-industry platform for future-oriented work and customer foresight expertise" was launched. It includes 13 leading companies from various sectors (www.foresightacademy.com).
This cross-industry research and exchange platform uses dialogues with Trend Receivers as a core element in the process of projecting desirable future everyday life. The methodological process, in which the Trend Receiver approach is embedded, is described at the website and two "Methodology Handbooks" are made publicly availabe. [10]
Literary Reception
- In his article “Customer Foresight – The Good, The Bad, The Ugly” (2020),[6] Van Deth mentions Trend Receiver interviews as an example of capturing future customer needs and behaviors and developing organizational strategies in the context of strategic customer foresight.
- In his article “Looking for Prophets – The Trend Receiver Approach” (2020),[7] Lüken compares the results of the Trend Receiver Concept to prophecies: judgements by individuals about the future that others would not be able to produce. According to him, the advantage of the concept lies in the inclusion of human creativity and intuition that goes beyond conclusions derived from trend observation and consumer surveys. In his point of view, perspectives can serve as a valuable source of inspiration and with the predictions, assumptions about future everyday life and consumer preferences can be derived. However, he sees the testability of the Trend Receiver hypotheses as a crucial point. According to him, the hypotheses should only serve as a starting point and be continuously validated by market research methods. As they are only based on evaluations of individuals, biases can occur, and their validity cannot be judged since data on the future is not available. If predictions are wrong, decisions have already been made and if they were correct, it is hard to tell whether this was pure chance or real anticipation. Consequently, he sees the predictions of Trend Receivers only as one of many inputs for research.
- In his article “Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics”,[11] Schwarz et al. name Trend Receivers as potential participants for preparing the game book or to selectively play a role in the business wargame. The task of these participants is to interpret scenarios in a business wargame and thus guide and motivate investments in the perceiving and prospecting phases of the prospective competitive strategy process.
- In her article “Sketching the Future of Mobility with Visualizations”,[12] Schweitzer discusses the successful application of visualizations in a foresight study with Trend Receivers on the future of self-driving cars.
- Rohrbeck et al. name the Trend Receiver Concept as an example of individual and collective cognition for corporate foresight, in their article “Corporate Foresight: An Emerging Field with a Rich Tradition”.[13]
- In his article "Brand management and the world of the arts: collaboration, co-operation, co-creation and inspiration" (2018)[14] Baumgarth mentions the Trend Receiver concept as an example of the use of arts, artists and artistic techniques to gain customer insights and a deep understanding of the past, present and future.
See also
External links
- Audi Innovation Research: https://www.audi.com/de/company/research/audi-innovation-research/trend-receiver.html
- Links to articles on the Trend Receiver concept by Dr. Rupert Hofmann: http://ruperthofmann.com/trend-receiver-concept-and-customer-foresight-research/
- Webinar: Future Scenario Planning by HYVE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWVZpsuq9A0
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Hofmann, Rupert (2015-12-01). "Visionary competence for long-term development of brands, products, and services: The trend receiver concept and its first applications at Audi". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 83–98. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.005. ISSN 0040-1625.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Hofmann, Rupert (2020). "Customer Foresight Practice. How to Access Future Markets Through Extraordinary People". Marketing Review St. Gallen. 3.
- ↑ Eller, Hofmann, Schwarz, Eric, Rupert, Jan-Oliver (2020). "The Customer Foresight Territory". Marketing Review St. Gallen. 3: 12–19.CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link)
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Schweitzer, Nicola; Hofmann, Rupert; Meinheit, Andreas (2019-07-01). "Strategic customer foresight: From research to strategic decision-making using the example of highly automated vehicles". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 144: 49–65. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.04.004. ISSN 0040-1625.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Hofmann, Rupert (2011). Trend-Receiver - qualifizierte Visionskraft Kriterien und Vorgehensweisen der Befragtenauswahl und Dialoggestaltung bei Studien zu zukünftigen Konzepten am Beispiel der Audi AG. Cuvillier. ISBN 978-3-86955-782-3. OCLC 752935288. Search this book on
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 van Deth, Samuel (2020). "Customer Foresight – The Good, The Bad, The Ugly". Marketing Review St. Gallen. 3.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Lüken, Jan-Diederich (2020). "Looking for Prophets? The Trend Receiver Approach". Marketing Review St. Gallen. 3: 32–37.
- ↑ Glockner, Holger. "Wie Audi in die zukünftigen Lebenswelten seiner Kunden eintaucht". Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ 9.0 9.1 Hahn, Hofmann, Bilgram, Schwarz, Meinheit, Füller, Alexander, Rupert, Volker, Jan-Oliver, Andreas, Johann (2016). Easy Rider. Die Erschließung der Welt des autonomen Fahrens aus Sicht von Markt und Kunde. Thomas Abele.CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link) Search this book on
- ↑ "The Foresight Academy Methodology". www.foresightacademy.com. Retrieved 2020-10-16. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ Schwarz, Jan Oliver; Ram, Camelia; Rohrbeck, René (2019-01-01). "Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics". Futures. 105: 133–142. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001. ISSN 0016-3287.
- ↑ Schweitzer, Nicola (2017). "Sketching the Future of Mobility with Visualizations". Marketing Review St. Gallen. 3: 18–27.
- ↑ Rohrbeck, René; Battistella, Cinzia; Huizingh, Eelko (2015-12-01). "Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 1–9. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002. ISSN 0040-1625.
- ↑ Baumgarth, Carsten (2018). "Brand management and the world of the arts: collaboration, co-operation, co-creation, and inspiration". Journal of Product & Brand Managemnt. 27 (3): 237–248. doi:10.1108/JPBM-03-2018-1772.
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