Trump coalition
The Trump coalition was a broad spectrum of voters that Trump united under his banner of Make America Great Again. This coalition helped him win in 2016 and 2024, and held mostly intact in the 2020 loss[1]. Conversely, Trump had been able to make inroads with minorities, causing states such as Florida and California with large Hispanic populations to buck the national trend and shift right[2]. In his third GOP run, Trump had been able to continue these trends, as well as making a heavy play for young men[3]. Another big factor in his push to victory was the Catholic vote, complimented by his running mate, JD Vance being one himself[4].
| Trump vote share by demographic subgroup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic
subgroup |
2016[5] | 2020[6] | 2024[7] | 2016-24
Swing |
| Total vote | 46 | 47 | 50 | 4 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 10 | 10 | 7 | -3 |
| Moderates | 40 | 34 | 40 | - |
| Conservatives | 81 | 85 | 90 | 9 |
| Party | ||||
| Democrats | 8 | 5 | 4 | -4 |
| Republicans | 88 | 94 | 94 | 6 |
| Independents | 46 | 41 | 46 | - |
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 52 | 53 | 55 | 3 |
| Women | 41 | 42 | 45 | 4 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 52 | 53 | 56 | 4 |
| Unmarried | 37 | 40 | 42 | 5 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 57 | 58 | 57 | - |
| Black | 8 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| Asian | 27 | 34 | 39 | 12 |
| Other | 36 | 41 | 52 | 16 |
| Hispanic | 28 | 32 | 46 | 18 |
| Religion | ||||
| Protestant | 56 | 60 | 63 | 7 |
| Catholic | 50 | 47 | 58 | 8 |
| Jewish | 23 | 22 | 22 | -1 |
| Other | 29 | 29 | 34 | 5 |
| None | 25 | 31 | 26 | 1 |
| White evangelical or born-again Christian? | ||||
| White evangelical or born-again Christian | 80 | 76 | 82 | 2 |
| Everyone else | 34 | 36 | 40 | 6 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 34 | 31 | 42 | 8 |
| 25–29 years old | 38 | 43 | 45 | 7 |
| 30–39 years old | 39 | 46 | 46 | 7 |
| 40–49 years old | 49 | 44 | 50 | 1 |
| 50–64 years old | 52 | 52 | 56 | 4 |
| 65 and older | 52 | 52 | 49 | -3 |
| Age by race | ||||
| Whites 18–29 years old | 47 | 53 | 49 | 2 |
| Whites 30–44 years old | 54 | 57 | 61 | 7 |
| Whites 45–64 years old | 62 | 61 | 55 | -7 |
| Whites 65 and older | 58 | 57 | 55 | -3 |
| Blacks 18–29 years old | 9 | 10 | 15 | 6 |
| Blacks 30–44 years old | 9 | 19 | 15 | 6 |
| Blacks 45–64 years old | 7 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| Blacks 65 and older | 9 | 7 | 5 | -4 |
| Latinos 18–29 years old | 26 | 28 | 47 | 21 |
| Latinos 30–44 years old | 28 | 34 | 45 | 17 |
| Latinos 45–64 years old | 32 | 30 | 49 | 17 |
| Latinos 65 and older | 25 | 40 | 41 | 16 |
| Others | 31 | 38 | 46 | 15 |
| Sexual orientation | ||||
| LGBT | 14 | 27 | 13 | -1 |
| Heterosexual | 47 | 48 | 53 | 6 |
| Education | ||||
| High school graduate or less | 51 | 54 | 63 | 12 |
| Some college education | 51 | 47 | 51 | - |
| College graduate | 44 | 47 | 45 | 1 |
| Postgraduate education | 37 | 37 | 38 | 1 |
| Union households | ||||
| Union | 42 | 40 | 45 | 3 |
| Non-union | 48 | 49 | 50 | 2 |
| Region | ||||
| Northeast | 40 | 40 | 46 | 6 |
| Midwest | 49 | 51 | 53 | 4 |
| South | 52 | 53 | 55 | 3 |
| West | 39 | 41 | 43 | 4 |
| Trump flipped States/Districts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016[8] | 2020[9] | 2024[10] | |
| Ohio | Trump + 8.1 | Trump + 8.0 | Trump + 11.5 |
| Iowa | Trump + 9.4 | Trump + 8.2 | Trump + 13.2 |
| Florida | Trump + 1.2 | Trump + 3.4 | Trump + 13.1 |
| Maine 2nd | Trump + 10.3 | Trump + 7.4 | Trump + 9.0 |
| Wisconsin | Trump + 0.8 | Biden + 0.6 | Trump + 1.0 |
| Michigan | Trump + 0.2 | Biden + 2.8 | Trump + 1.4 |
| Pennsylvania | Trump + 0.7 | Biden + 1.2 | Trump + 2.0 |
| Arizona | Trump + 5.8 | Biden + 0.3 | Trump + 5.5 |
| Nevada | Clinton + 2.4 | Biden + 2.4 | Trump + 3.1 |
This article "Trump coalition" is from Wikipedia. The list of its authors can be seen in its historical and/or the page Edithistory:Trump coalition. Articles copied from Draft Namespace on Wikipedia could be seen on the Draft Namespace of Wikipedia and not main one.
- ↑ "How Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House". PBS News. 2024-11-06. Retrieved 2024-11-08.
- ↑ "US election 2020: Why Trump gained support among minorities". 2020-11-22. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "Trump's Appeal to Young Men, in Three Charts". Bloomberg.com. 2024-11-07. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "Donald Trump Can Thank Catholics for His Big Win – EWTN Global Catholic Television Network". 2024-11-08. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "2016 CNN Exit Poll". CNN. November 23, 2016. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ↑ "National Results 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "Exit poll results 2024". CNN. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "2016 Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. 2017-08-09. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ↑ "2020 State Results". Politico. 2020-11-08.
- ↑ Baker, Michael. "Presidential election results 2024". CNN. Retrieved 2025-01-30.
