Value betting
What is Value Betting?
To explain value betting to you, I will start with a real-life example. In 2016, Manchester City played Chelsea in an FA Cup fixture. Two hours before the game, the best odds on Chelsea to win were @1.77.
Then, one hour before the game, the official starting line-ups were released to the public, where Manchester City decided to included five teenagers debutants in their side. This decision created a massive reaction in the betting market.
In the space of 15 minutes, the price of Chelsea in the Asian markets dropped from 1.77 to below 1.40.
On the other hand, Norsk Tipping and other soft bookmakers were a lot slower to react, which is where value betting comes into play.
Asian bookmakers are a lot quicker to react to the betting market in comparison to soft bookies; in this example it took Norsk Tipping 40 minutes to lower their odds to below 1.40!
So, in this game, a value bet was created, giving anyone who was betting in that time a significant edge over the bookmaker. This is what is called a value bet!
Coin Flip Example
There is no ‘sure thing’ in value betting, meaning any bet you place has the ability to win or lose.
Value betting is a long-run game, the more bets you place, the larger your sample size and the less variance you will incur. Take a coin flip for example.
In a coin flip you have two possible outcomes; heads or tails. If the coin is not weighted on one side, the chances of it landing on heads is 50% and the chances of it landing on tails is 50%.
Now, let’s say your friend wants to make a $10 bet on a coin flip and he/she offers you odds of:
Heads @2.10 Tails @1.80 Unless you’ve lost your mind, you’re going to bet on heads as it offers better odds and has the exact same chance of landing as tails.
Theoretically, expected value (EV) says that half of the time you will win $11 and the other half you will lose $10. This means your EV is $0.5 from each flip.
As we know, having a 50/50 split on results from a coin flip doesn’t always happen. But, over time, the more coin flips you do, the closer your results will converge towards $0.5 per flip.
Make 1,000 coin flips, and now you have an expected value of $500. Even if you over or under perform on that number, it’s still a decent profit!
This is exactly how value betting works, if you’re constantly placing bets that have an edge over the bookmaker, over time, you’re going to make some serious profit!
How do I find these value bets?
It's almost impossible to do value betting with your own knowledge, unless you're a genius or hire lots of employees to look at a heap of data.
The best way to do value betting is with the help of a value betting software, take Trademate Sports for example.
Trademate is the ultimate tool for new and professional sports traders. They calculate the true odds of a sports event and signal when the bookies make mistakes, enabling you to exploit them.
You can sign up to Trademate Sports for free to try it out!
But basically, all you have to do is make an account with them, sign up with the bookmakers they support and then they will find the edges for you.
Trademate Sports' results
From January 2016 - September 2019, Trademate Sports' customers profited €4.2 million from 2,315,590 trades, at a return on investment (ROI) of 2.55%.
And this is just from the results against the soft bookmakers! As highlighted before, this is not a get-rich-quick solution, with an average ROI of 2.55% it takes time and a lot of trades!
If you want more information on their software and statistics, you can also check out their blog on their website.
References[edit]
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