Median Strategies
Median Strategies was a company which initially described itself as a pollster, and later as a "short term social experiment".[1][2] In August 2026, it released the purported results of public opinion polls for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election and the 2026 gubernatorial elections in Wisconsin and Nevada, and then a few days later retracted all of its releases, stating "[a]ll previously published polling releases have been withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data".[1][2][3]
The company acknowledged to reporters that the data were false, and following its admission, declared on August 17, 2026 that it was shutting down.[1][2] In a written statement, the company said "Median Strategies was created as a short term social experiment to examine how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification",[1][2] but contemporaneous reporting did not indicate whether this sequence of events was the company's plan all along, or whether any survey research had ever been conducted by the company.
Even before the company's admission, several polling aggregators had refused to include Median Strategies' purported results because they were released without basic and standard information needed for vetting polls (like the identities of the firm's directors), and Median Strategies did not respond to requests for that information.[3] The entities responsible for Median Strategies remained unknown in the aftermath of the revelation.[3]
The company released a statement on its website claiming "no individual involved held or traded any position in an election prediction market, betting market, or other financial instrument tied to the races covered by Median Strategies".[3][4] The Associated Press evaluated the effect of the company's statements on betting markets and found that while that the false Wisconsin and Nevada poll results had no discernable effects, with regard to bets on the Los Angeles mayoralty, there appeared to be small changes in price and significant numbers of trades in the 15 minutes immediately following the release of the false Los Angeles poll result.[3]
The false polling data stated that Karen Bass led Nithya Raman by 12 percentage points in advance of the November 3 Los Angeles mayoral runoff election, and that Francesca Hong led the field of the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic Party primary election by 20 percentage points.[1][2] The Los Angeles data were presented as if results were a poll, claiming 560 respondents and a 4.1% margin of error.[1][2] In response, the Bass campaign decried "bad faith attempts to influence elections" and the Raman campaign criticized the Bass campaign for having promoted the results of "a fake poll without properly vetting the source".[1][2]
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Goldberg, Noah (2026-08-17). "Poll showing Bass leading Raman by double digits was bogus, company says". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on 2026-08-17. Retrieved 2026-08-18.
A poll claiming Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was leading Councilmember Nithya Raman by a wide margin — and picking up support from most voters who backed Spencer Pratt in the mayoral primary — was bogus, the company behind the poll acknowledged Monday.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Mancini, Ryan (2026-08-18). "Polling firm closes down after it faked Hong, Bass polls". The Hill. Retrieved 2026-08-18.
Median Strategies, the company that released polls showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) and former Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong ahead with wide margins in their respective races, announced Monday it has closed.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Peoples, Steve; Thomson-Deveaux, Amelia; Sweet, Ken. "Fake polling from mysterious company highlights danger of unvetted election surveys". Associated Press. Retrieved 2026-08-18.
Median's 'findings' were shared by polling aggregation accounts on social media. They were not, however, included in the databases of major independent aggregators, including The New York Times, Real Clear Politics or FiftyPlusOne.
- ↑ Dayen, David (2026-08-19). "Fake Poll Scandal Has All the Earmarks of a Pump-and-Dump Scheme". The American Prospect. Retrieved 2026-08-19.
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