Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election
The next Conservative Party leadership election has not yet been formally launched, but is expected at some point. Speculation that a leadership election will come sooner arose following the party's poor showing in the 2017 general election that the Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, Theresa May, had called.
Background[edit]
After the Britain voted to leave the EU, David Cameron resigned as Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister which caused the leadership election. Theresa May won the contest, after the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom, and succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister on 13 July. As Prime Minister, May begun the process of withdrawing the UK from the European Union, triggering Article 50 on 29 March 2017. On April 2017, May announced an early general election in June, in order to "strengthen her hand" when she negotiated with the European Union. Opinion polls originally predicated a huge landslide victory for the Conservative Party and May aimed to substantially increase her party's slim majority. However, the result was a hung parliament, in which the number of Conservative seats fell from 330 to 318, prompting her to broker a confidence and supply deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support her minority government.
May's handling of the campaign was widely criticised, particularly the role of her two chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. On 11 June 2017, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, described May as a "dead woman walking".[1] A survey on the website Conservative Home found that almost two thirds of Conservative party members want Theresa May to resign.[2] A YouGov poll of 1,720 adults for the Sunday Times had 48% saying Theresa May should resign, with 38% against.[3] A Survation poll of 1,036 adults online for the Mail on Sunday had 49% of people wanting her resignation, with 38% against.[3] Former Cabinet minister Anna Soubry called for May to "consider her position" after the election result. Former Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan said that May could not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election and called for a leadership election in the summer or in 2018 before the Brexit deal is finalised. Brexiteers pledged loyalty to May but many reportedly threatened an immediate leadership challenge should May plan to dilute her initial plans for Brexit. After the Grenfell Tower fire, May's leadership faced more criticism after her initial refusal to meet victims and her handling of the crisis.
With May's position weakened, senior colleagues in the party are said to be preparing for a leadership contest and "jostling for succession," as a July article in the Financial Times put it.[4] Politicians and journalists do not expect May to lead the party at the next general election, with the Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman describing "the first shots in a battle that could tear the government apart" in a July 2017 article as the three leading contenders for the leadership, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond, brief against each other.[5] Junior ministers were also said to be frustrated at Cabinet ministers for propping up a Prime Minister with no authority in order to further their careers with some ministers preparing to resign in order to trigger a leadership election. Andrew Mitchell, an ally of Davis, was said to have told a dinner that May was finished and was said to be organising letters to force May to name her date of departure.[6] A 23 July 2017 report in The Independent said a core of 15 Conservative MPs were ready to sign a letter of no confidence, with 48 needed to trigger a contest.[7]
May reportedly announced to Conservative MPs in August 2017 that she would resign as Prime Minister on 30 August 2019, making it likely that the next leadership election would take place in the summer of 2019.[8] However, May subsequently announced on 31 August 2017 that she intended to remain on to fight the next general election, which under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 will be in 2022.[9]
Candidates[edit]
While a large number of potential candidates have attracted speculation, the main contenders were initially seen to be David Davis, Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd, all currently sitting in Cabinet.[10][11][12][13] By early August 2017, Jacob Rees-Mogg was receiving considerable attention and he had risen to second in the betting markets after Davis.[14]
Potential[edit]
As of May 2024, the following individuals have received speculation as potential leadership candidates.
- Victoria Atkins, Member of Parliament for Louth and Horncastle since 2015 (Remain supporter)[15]
- James Cleverly, Member of Parliament for Braintree since 2015 (Leave supporter)[16]
- Ruth Davidson, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party since 2011 (Remain supporter), not currently eligible as not an MP[17][18]
- David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union since 2016 (Leave supporter)[19]
- Oliver Dowden, Member of Parliament for Hertsmere since 2015 (Remain supporter)[20]
- Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence since 2014 (Remain supporter)[21]
- Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2017 (Leave supporter)[22]
- Damian Green, First Secretary of State since 2017 (Remain supporter)[22]
- Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2016 (Remain supporter)[22]
- Mark Harper, Government Chief Whip from 2015 to 2016 (Remain supporter)[23][better source needed]
- Nigel Huddleston, Member of Parliament for Mid Worcestershire since 2015 (Remain supporter)[20]
- Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government since 2016 (Remain supporter)[22]
- Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs since 2016 (Leave supporter)[24]
- Jo Johnson, Minister of State for Universities and Science since 2015 (Remain supporter)[25]
- Andrea Leadsom, Leader of the House of Commons since 2017 (Leave supporter)[26]
- Phillip Lee, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Justice since 2016 (Remain supporter)[27]
- Brandon Lewis, Minister of State for Immigration since 2017 (Remain supporter)[28]
- Johnny Mercer, Member of Parliament for Plymouth Moor View since 2015 (Remain supporter)[20]
- Nicky Morgan, Chair of the Treasury Select Committee since 2017 (Remain supporter)[29]
- Jesse Norman, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Transport since 2017[28]
- Priti Patel, Secretary of State for International Development since 2016 (Leave supporter)[26]
- Dominic Raab, Minister of State for Justice since 2017 (Leave supporter)[22]
- Jacob Rees-Mogg, Member of Parliament for North East Somerset since 2010 (Leave supporter)[30]
- Amber Rudd, Home Secretary since 2016 (Remain supporter)[21]
- Rory Stewart, Minister of State for International Development since 2016 and Minister of State for Africa since 2017 (Remain supporter)[31]
- Tom Tugendhat, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee since 2017 (Remain supporter)[20]
- Gavin Williamson, Government Chief Whip since 2016 (Remain supporter)[20]
Opinion polling[edit]
Polls via polling organisations[edit]
| Date(s) administered |
Poll source |
Sample size |
David Davis |
Liam Fox |
Philip Hammond |
Boris Johnson |
Andrea Leadsom |
Jacob Rees- Mogg |
Amber Rudd |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 June-11 July 2017 | YouGov/Economic and Social Research Council | 1,002 Conservative members | 21% | 1% | 5% | 17% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 26% |
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ↑ "General election 2017: Theresa May is 'best placed person' for Brexit". 11 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ↑ Maidment, Jack (10 June 2017). "Almost two thirds of Conservative Party members want Theresa May to resign as Prime Minister". telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 "48% think Theresa May should step down as Prime Minister, poll shows". home.bt.com. 11 June 2017.
- ↑ "Theresa May braced for a fall as Brexit tests loom". amp.ft.com. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Editor, Tim Shipman, Political. "Mr Grey, Mr Blond and Mr Brexit: battle of the big guns". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ editor, Rowena Mason Deputy political (9 July 2017). "May attempts to reassert grip over Tory party amid talk of challenge". Retrieved 9 September 2017 – via The Guardian.
- ↑ "15 Tory MPs 'sign no confidence letter in Theresa May'". 23 July 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Smith, Adam (27 August 2017). "Theresa May is apparently 'going to resign in 2019'". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Wright, Robert (31 August 2017). "Theresa May vows to fight next UK election as prime minister". Financial Times. Retrieved 31 August 2017.
- ↑ "Main candidates to replace Theresa May would all make Tories less popular, poll suggests". 11 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Who could replace Theresa May as Tory leader? The runners and riders - and latest odds". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "The 5 Conservative politicians most likely to replace Theresa May as Tory leader". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Savage, Michael (22 July 2017). "Tory members turn to David Davis in battle to succeed Theresa May". Retrieved 9 September 2017 – via The Guardian.
- ↑ "Look beyond Jacob Rees-Mogg's cartoony shtick at what he really stands for". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "An Insider's Guide to Tory In-Fighting". Vice. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Tory MP likens 'strong and stable' to calling a Volvo sleek and sexy". 25 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Mure Dickie (9 June 2017). "Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader". Financial Times. Retrieved 2 July 2017.
- ↑ Philip Sim (12 June 2017). "Profile: Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson". BBC. Retrieved 2 July 2017.
- ↑ "Exclusive: Boris Johnson allies say David Davis is too old to become Tory leader and cannot unite the party". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 Savage, Michael (22 July 2017). "Tory party seeks dream candidate to replace Theresa May". Retrieved 9 September 2017 – via The Guardian.
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Payne, Sebastian (8 June 2017). "Who could replace Theresa May as leader if she resigns?". Financial Times. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/tory-leader-runners-riders-replace-theresa-may/
- ↑ "Ex-Tory chief whip Mark Harper tipped as contender to replace Theresa May". 9 September 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Boris Johnson denies he discussed running to be Conservative leader with Sir Michael Fallon over a pint". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Are the Johnson brothers in a political power struggle for No. 10?". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 "Amber Rudd, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond eye top Tory job". 23 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Next Tory leader. Davis leads our survey – but is outscored by "none of the above" - Conservative Home". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ 28.0 28.1 "Tory plot to skip 'toxic' generation and install younger face as next leader". Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ "Introducing the new, improved Maybot 3000 - The Spectator". 17 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
- ↑ Horton, Helena (18 July 2017). "'The times change, and we change with them': Jacob Rees-Mogg gets Twitter". The Daily Telegraph.
- ↑ "The whips mustn't crush every Tory who thinks about the future - Coffee House". 1 July 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
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