Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 in South Africa
Socio Economic Impact Assesment on COVID19 in South Africa is that was conducted by UNDP South Africa to provide a modelling assessments to understand impact of COVID 19 in South Africa, looking at the household as a micro-unit and the macroeconomic effect that captures feedback and interactions within the economy. [1]
Background[edit]
To gather the perceptions of people, data was collected through Telephone Interviews (CATI), Email, and SMS surveying techniques from April 14 – 26, 2020 and from May 25 – June 3 to obtain supplementary data from hospital workers. The sample was nationally represented by race, age, gender and location and with a natural fallout of Living Standard Measures (LSM) across provinces. The survey was administered in English, Zulu, Xhosa, Setswana, Sepedi and Sesotho. Three main transmission channels through which the effects of the pandemic feed into the economy in the short term were also identified which were centred . international trade markets, domestic demand, and domestic supply channels. [2]
Key Findings[edit]
- The main findings at the household level show that female-headed households are more likely to fall into poverty than male-headed households.
- The higher the level of education achieved by the head of household, the lower the probability of this household falling into poverty, with the average marginal impact higher for when secondary school not completed than those with tertiary level of education.
- Employment is vital for poverty transition, since households who experience more secure employment (permanent, union, and self-employed household in the formal sector) have a lower probability of falling into poverty.
- The study also shows that black Africans and households with many dependents have a higher likelihood of being poor.
- The number of people living under poverty the upper and lower poverty lines (poverty and extreme poverty) increase due to the pandemic .
- Poorer households are more negatively affected by the pandemic mainly through the unskilled labour and wage reduction compared to the richer households. Hence inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient index increased by 0.16 in the optimistic scenario and 0.23 in the pessimistic scenario.[3]
- The analysis also suggests that the current stimulus package may not be sufficient given that households are still going to lose at least 40 percent of their income even if they qualify for the special Temporary Employee/Employer Relief Scheme (TERS). Based on data from households that experienced at least a 10 percent reduction in income alone before the pandemic, the results show that their odds of falling into poverty is 1.5.
Policy Recommendations[edit]
Several recommendations were made regarding households, workers, different sectors including textiles, glass products and footwear, including the policy recommendations for the sector of the community living in social grants.
External links[edit]
References[edit]
- ↑ https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/news-centre/news/2020/South_Africa_GDP_will_take_at_least_five_years_to_recover_from_COVID19_impact_says_UNDP_study.html
- ↑ https://ewn.co.za/2020/08/19/undp-effects-of-covid-19-expected-to-increase-poverty-inequality-in-sa
- ↑ https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-08-21-un-report-urges-multi-sectoral-approach-to-address-the-covid-19-socio-economic-crisis/
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