Squiggles AFL
Australian Football League (AFL) Squiggles is a visual tool that combines predictive models and visualisations of AFL team performances by Australian author Max Barry. Starting in 2009, the tool has been updated to include features such as result randomisers, round tips, season predictors, grand final probabilities and grand final predictors. Since the 2012 season, the predictive model has correctly tipped more than 70% of match results in each season,[1] reaching 78% in both 2015 and 2016.
How the visual tool works[edit]
The tool uses a line chart to describe teams attack and defence ratings on an X ⇢ Y axis chart. The X axis describes the teams defensive capability whilst the Y axis describes their attacking capability. Teams that have high attack and defence scores will be placed towards the top-right, whilst teams that have low attack and defence scores will be placed towards the bottom-left corner. When a team is placed on the chart, their team flag is used to represent their position. As teams play throughout the season, their attack and defence scores are updated in relation to their performances. As they move about the chart, a line is plotted from their previous position, being their plotted position at the end of the previous round. Lines will often intersect throughout the regular season and finals. Most premiership winning teams have solid defences (usually top 5) and very good attacks (usually top 2), typically finish higher on the Y axis than on the X axis.
Ultra defensive teams, such as premiership winning Sydney in 2005 and 2012 are the exception.
What causes a team to move[edit]
As teams exceed or fail to meet predicted performances, they move around the chart. Teams that score more than predicted will move positively on Y axis , but when they fail to meet expectations, will move negatively. Likewise, when calculating movements on the X axis, if the teams opponent exceeds their predicted score, then the team will negatively on the X axis, but when they keep their opponent to a lower score, they will move positively. Typically teams will move in the opposite direction of one another on the chart after a match, but both can move in the same direction if they both score more than predicted, or both score less than predicted.
Teams can win and lose and still move positively and negatively on the chart. For example, if Squiggles predicted Collingwood to beat Richmond by 29 points, but win by 12, then Collingwood will move positively on one axis and negatively on another. If they fail to beat their predicted score, they will move down the chart, and likewise move left if they fail to hold Richmond to a lower than predicted score. If Squiggles predicts Collingwood 89 to defeat Richmond 60 and the match score is Collingwood 76 def Richmond 64, then Collingwood would move ↙ down the chart, whilst Richmond would move ↗. If Collingwood scored 112 and Richmond 100, then Collingwood would move ↖ and Richmond ↖ since both teams scored more than predicted, but failed to keep each other to lower score that predicted.
↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted
↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted
↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted
↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted
How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from the squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.[2]
References[edit]
This article "Squiggles AFL" is from Wikipedia. The list of its authors can be seen in its historical and/or the page Edithistory:Squiggles AFL. Articles copied from Draft Namespace on Wikipedia could be seen on the Draft Namespace of Wikipedia and not main one.
