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Third wave of autocratization

From EverybodyWiki Bios & Wiki


Third wave of autocratization
Part of waves of democracy
c. 2000s – present
File:831銅鑼灣 01.jpg
Riot police firing tear gas canisters at Hong Kong protesters, 2019
Preceded byThird wave of democratization
Part of the Politics series
Democracy
Politics portal

The third wave of autocratization is the ongoing 21st-century phenomenon whereby countries around the globe are drifting away from liberal democracy towards authoritarianism. The war on terror, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic were some of the most significant events that exacerbated autocratization. Since the 2010s, more countries have been autocratizing than democratizing.[1]

Unlike previous waves of autocratization, the third wave has resulted in significant autocratization in healthy liberal democracies. Modern autocrats have relied less on military coups to consolidate power and more on being legitimately elected to positions of power and eroding separation of powers from within.

Waves of autocracy contrast with waves of democracy, with the third wave of autocratization being preceded by the third wave of democratization, which began in 1974. Although experts disagree on which year marked the beginning of the third wave of autocratization (and the corresponding end to the third wave of democratization), most agree it began during the war on terror or Great Recession.

Autocratization has ignited international pro-democracy movements such as the Arab Spring and the Gen Z protests. Autocratization has also led to developments in protest tactics against police riot control methods, as well as the popularization of new pro-democracy symbols like the three-finger salute and Straw Hats' Jolly Roger.

Timeline

Modern democratic backsliding, rather than occurring through military coups (the norm during the Cold War era), has more frequently occurred through the election of personalist leaders or parties who subsequently dismantle democratic institutions.[2] New democracies that were weakly established during the third wave of democratization have been especially vulnerable to democratic backsliding.[3][4]

War on terror (2001–2021)

Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent war on terror, democratic backsliding ensued.[5] The war on terror is a global military campaign initiated by the United States in response to the September 11 attacks in 2001. A global conflict spanning multiple wars, some researchers and political scientists have argued that it replaced the Cold War.[6][7]

In 2003, political scientists and theorists believed that the third wave had crested and would soon begin to ebb, just as its predecessors did in the first and second waves.[8]

File:Camp x-ray detainees.jpg
Detainees in orange jumpsuits bound in a holding area at Guantanamo Bay, 2002

While support for the "war on terror" was high among the American public during its initial years, it had become deeply unpopular by the late 2000s.[9][10] Controversy over the war has focused on its morality, casualties, and continuity, with critics questioning government measures that infringed civil liberties and human rights.[11] Critics have notably described the Patriot Act as "Orwellian" due to its substantial expansion of the federal government's surveillance powers.[12][13] Controversial practices of coalition forces have been condemned, including drone warfare, surveillance, torture, extraordinary rendition, and various war crimes.[14][15][16] The participating governments have been criticized for implementing authoritarian measures, repressing minorities,[17][18] fomenting Islamophobia globally,[19] and causing negative impacts to health and environment.[20][21][22] Security analysts assert that there is no military solution to the conflict, pointing out that terrorism is not an identifiable enemy, and have emphasized the importance of negotiations and political solutions to resolve the underlying roots of the crises.[23]

Great Recession (2010s)

File:Countries democratizing or autocratizing substantially and significantly 2010–2020.svg
V-Dem report on countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020). Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.[24]
File:Number of countries experiencing autocratization and democratization, 1900–2019.svg
Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) has been higher than those democratizing (yellow).[1]

Some scholars argue the third wave of autocratization began in the 2010s after the Great Recession, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high.[25][26] From 2010 to 2020, the V-Dem Institute reported a global decline in liberal democracy.[27]

COVID-19 (2019–2022)

Main article: Political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic


Post-COVID (2022–present)

File:V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index 2026 World.svg
V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index 2026
File:U.S. citizen Aliya Rahman is dragged from her car and arrested (1.13.26 Tear Gas Day 2.ben) (2026-01-13).webm
US citizen Aliya Rahman is dragged from her car and arrested during Operation Metro Surge, 2026[28]

In the 2020s, democratic backsliding has increasingly been observed not only in newer or weakly institutionalized democracies, but also in long-established democratic systems.[29]

According to the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2026, nearly a quarter of the world's countries were undergoing autocratization in 2025, including several in Europe and North America. The report also highlights growing concerns about declines in democratic quality and increasing pressures on media and journalists worldwide.[29]

Russia under Vladimir Putin has repeatedly engaged in election interference and disinformation campaigns aimed at damaging opponents of far-right populist factions, including in three US elections to support Donald Trump (2016, 2020, 2024)[30][31][32] and in German elections to support the AfD, or Alternative for Germany (2025).[33][34][35][36][37]

Concepts

Autocratic legalism

Right-wing populism

File:Hénin-Beaumont - Marine Le Pen au Parlement des Invisibles le dimanche 15 avril 2012 (M).JPG
French politician Marine Le Pen, who has been described as a right-wing populist[38]


Scholars use terminology inconsistently, sometimes referring to right-wing populism as "radical right"[39] or other terms such as new nationalism.[40] Pippa Norris noted that "standard reference works use alternate typologies and diverse labels categorising parties as 'far' or 'extreme' right, 'New Right', 'anti-immigrant' or 'neo-fascist', 'anti-establishment', 'national populist', 'protest', 'ethnic', 'authoritarian', 'anti-government', 'anti-party', 'ultranationalist', 'right-libertarian' and so on".[41][needs update] The term authoritarian populism can be used to describe right-wing populism,[42] although it is also used to refer to left-wing political movements.[43][44]

Policing

Kettling

File:Toronto G20 Protests.tif
Police kettle at the G20 Toronto summit protests, 2010


Militarization

File:Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) in Los Angeles, California, June 12, 2025 - 76.jpg
Law enforcement officer in an armored vehicle aiming an assault rifle during the anti-ICE Los Angeles protests, 2025


Predictive policing

Protest policing

File:Fog of War (50161828816).jpg
US Seattle Police Department officers at the George Floyd protests, 2020



Riot police

Main article: Riot police
File:Delaney Hall - police arrest protester in kettle.webm
US riot police arrest a protester at the Delaney Hall protests, 2026

Riot police are police who are organized, deployed, trained or equipped to confront crowds, protests or riots.

Riot police may be regular police officers who act in the role of riot police in particular situations, or they may be separate units organized within or in parallel to regular police forces. Riot police are used in a variety of different situations and purposes. They may be employed to control riots as their name suggests, to disperse or control crowds, to maintain public order or discourage criminality, or to protect people or property. The militarization of modern police has brought militaristic riot gear and new technologies that allow for their duties to expand above normal police duties.[45]

Riot police often use special equipment called riot gear to help protect themselves and for offensive use in riot control. Riot gear typically includes personal armor, batons, tactical shield, riot shields, and riot helmets. Many riot police teams also deploy specialized non-lethal weapons, such as: baton rounds, sponge grenade, pepper spray, tear gas, riot guns, rubber bullets, stun grenades, water cannons, and Long Range Acoustic Devices.[46]

Other tactics

Disinformation attack

File:Disinformation and echo chambers.jpg
Framework conceptualizing the dissemination disinformation on social media


Mass surveillance

File:Surveillance camera at Tiananmen Square, 2009.jpg
Surveillance cameras at Tiananmen Square, 2009


Global mass surveillance

File:Approved SIGINT countries - NSA partners.svg
NSA lists "Approved SIGINT countries" which are divided into two groups by their cooperation level with the NSA.
  Second Parties
  Third Parties


Pro-democracy movements

Third-wave countries, including Portugal, Spain, South Korea, and Taiwan became fully consolidated democracies rather than backsliding. As of 2020, they even had stronger democracies than many counterparts with a much longer history as democratic countries.[47]

Arab Spring (2010–2012)

File:Tahrir Square on February11.png
Celebration after the Egyptian revolution forced Hosni Mubarak to resign, 2011


Gen Z protests (2019–present)

File:20190807 Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protest (48480850197).jpg
Protesters during the Hong Kong protests, 2019
File:Gen Z protests map.png
  Ongoing protests (as of September 2026)
  Successful protests; government overthrown or changed
  Successful protests; government applied the desired reform
  Partially successful protests; protests that have succeeded in some areas, failed in others
  Protests have occurred previously, with no success
  Protests have returned after previous failed protests


Milk Tea Alliance (2020–present)

Pro-democracy symbols

Three-finger salute

File:16 august protest 1.jpg
Protesters displaying the three-finger salute in front of the Democracy Monument during Thai protests, 2020


Straw Hats' Jolly Roger

File:Protester waves Jolly Roger flag at anti-ICE protest in Manhattan outside Trump tower.png
Anti-ICE protester waves Straw Hats' Jolly Roger flag outside Trump Tower, 2026


Protest tactics

Black bloc and PPE

File:Black Bloc Hamburg.jpg
Black bloc demonstration in Hamburg, Germany, 2007
File:Hong Kong protests - Kwong Tong March 20190824 - P1066327.jpg
Black bloc Hong Kong protesters wearing personal protective equipment, 2019


Hong Kong protest innovations

File:190818 HK protesters make way for ambulance.jpg
Hong Kong protesters in the Umbrella Movement make way for an ambulance, 2019
File:SPD Trying to Disperse Protestors (50154142282).jpg
US George Floyd protesters using umbrellas to protect from pepper spray, 2020


File:Hong Kong Protestors Put Out Tear Gas Grenades Using Traffic Cones.webm
Protestors in Hong Kong using the traffic cone method to put out tear gas canisters, 2019


Countries

Bangladesh

File:The victory celebration of Bangladeshi student's one point movement.jpg
Bangladeshi people celebrating the resignation of Sheikh Hasina as a result of the July Uprising, 2024

China

File:西南交通大学学生悼念乌鲁木齐火灾逝者 01.jpg
Chinese students mourn the victims of the fire in Ürümqi, holding blank sheets of paper and singing "The Internationale" and "March of the Volunteers", 2022

Germany

Hong Kong

File:DSCF0444 (48993402288).jpg
Riot police during the Hong Kong protests, 2019
File:2019-09-13 Lion Rock, Hong Kong 04.jpg
Hong Kong Way campaign protesters on Lion Rock, 2019

Iran

Italy

Philippines

File:Smokes, fire and a flag.jpg
Philippine protesters wave the Straw Hats' Jolly Roger flag, September 2025

Russia

File:Police marching.jpg
Russian riot police at a protest, 2021

South Korea

Syria

Thailand

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Template:Authoritarianism during the Trump presidencies sidebar

See also

Footnotes

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Boese, Vanessa A.; Lindberg, Staffan I.; Lührmann, Anna (18 August 2021). "Waves of autocratization and democratization: a rejoinder". Democratization. 28 (6): 1202–1210. doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1923006. ISSN 1351-0347.
  2. ↑ Frantz, Erica; Kendall-Taylor, Andrea; Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program Andrea; Wright, Joe (2024). The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-888807-9. Search this book on
  3. ↑ Rocha Menocal, Alina; Fritz, Verena; Rakner, Lise (June 2008). "Hybrid regimes and the challenges of deepening and sustaining democracy in developing countries1". South African Journal of International Affairs. 15 (1): 29–40. doi:10.1080/10220460802217934. ISSN 1022-0461. Archived from the original on 21 January 2020. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |s2cid= ignored (help)
  4. ↑ Bermeo, Nancy (January 2016). "On Democratic Backsliding" (PDF). Journal of Democracy. 27 (1): 5–19. doi:10.1353/jod.2016.0012. ISSN 1086-3214. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 March 2021. Retrieved 26 April 2019. Unknown parameter |s2cid= ignored (help); Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  5. ↑ Little AT, Meng A. Measuring Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024;57(2):149–161. doi:10.1017/S104909652300063X
  6. ↑ Buzan, Barry (November 2006). "Will the 'Global War on Terrorism' Be the New Cold War?". International Affairs. 82 (6): 1101–18. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00590.x. ISSN 0020-5850. JSTOR 4122087. Archived from the original on 9 November 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  7. ↑ Tunander, Ola (May 2004). "War on Terror and Transformation of World Order". Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Archived from the original on 16 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  8. ↑ Zagorski, Paul W. (2003). "Democratic Breakdown in Paraguay and Venezuela: The Shape of Things to Come for Latin America?". Armed Forces & Society. 30 (1): 87–116. doi:10.1177/0095327X0303000104. Unknown parameter |s2cid= ignored (help)
  9. ↑ Ackerman, Spencer (27 March 2012). "Afghanistan War Is Now More Unpopular Than Iraq War". Wired. Archived from the original on 19 October 2015.
  10. ↑ Doherty, Carroll; Kiley, Jocelyn (14 March 2023). "A Look Back at How Fear and False Beliefs Bolstered U.S. Public Support for War in Iraq". Pew Research Center. Archived from the original on 31 March 2023.
  11. ↑ "FBI Tried to Cover Patriot Act Abuses With Flawed, Retroactive Subpoenas, Audit Finds". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Archived from the original on 30 May 2023. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  12. ↑ Liptak, Adam (2011-09-07). "Civil Liberties Today". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 2 August 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-02. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  13. ↑ Eddington, Patrick G. (21 October 2021). "The PATRIOT Act Has Threatened Freedom for 20 Years". Cato Institute. Archived from the original on 2 August 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-02. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  14. ↑ Ball, James (22 May 2013). "US rendition: every suspected flight mapped". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  15. ↑ "CIA photographed detainees naked before sending them to be tortured". The Guardian. 28 March 2016. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  16. ↑ "Drone Warfare". The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (en-GB). Archived from the original on 24 November 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  17. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │ Assimilation or Islamophobia?: Uyghurs and China's Counter–Terrorist Discourse after 2001". 911legacies.com. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  18. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │ US Pressure for Democratization and Political Opportunity Structures in Egypt since 9/11". 911legacies.com. Archived from the original on 10 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  19. ↑ Abbas, Tahir (24 September 2021). "Reflection: the "war on terror", Islamophobia and radicalisation twenty years on". Critical Studies on Terrorism. 14 (4): 402–04. doi:10.1080/17539153.2021.1980182. hdl:1887/3618299. Unknown parameter |s2cid= ignored (help)
  20. ↑ "Birth Defects and the Toxic Legacy of War in Iraq". MERIP. 22 September 2020. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  21. ↑ "Airborne Hazards and Burn Pit Exposures". US Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration. Archived from the original on 13 May 2020. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  22. ↑ Lutfi, Ameem; Schwartz, Kevin L. (8 September 2021). "20 years later, the legacies of 9/11 and the war on terror have just begun". The Hill. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  23. ↑ Richissin, Todd (2 September 2004). "'War on terror' difficult to define". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on 14 January 2009. Retrieved 28 January 2009. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  24. ↑ Nazifa Alizada, Rowan Cole, Lisa Gastaldi, Sandra Grahn, Sebastian Hellmeier, Palina Kolvani, Jean Lachapelle, Anna Lührmann, Seraphine F. Maerz, Shreeya Pillai, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2021. Autocratization Turns Viral. Democracy Report 2021. University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute. https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/74/8c/748c68ad-f224-4cd7-87f9-8794add5c60f/dr_2021_updated.pdf.
  25. ↑ Maerz, Seraphine F.; Lührmann, Anna; Hellmeier, Sebastian; Grahn, Sandra; Lindberg, Staffan I. (18 May 2020). "State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows". Democratization. 27 (6): 909–927. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1758670. ISSN 1351-0347.
  26. ↑ Boese, Vanessa A.; Lundstedt, Martin; Morrison, Kelly; Sato, Yuko; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2022). "State of the world 2021: autocratization changing its nature?". Democratization. 29 (6): 983–1013. doi:10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751. ISSN 1351-0347. Unknown parameter |s2cid= ignored (help)
  27. ↑ Dwyer, Brandon (May 1, 2022). "Trends in Autocratization and their Impact on Pandemic Response". Capstone, The UNC Asheville Journal of Undergraduate Scholarship. University of North Carolina Asheville. 35 (1). Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  28. ↑ Staff, MPR News (2026-01-13). "Woman dragged by ICE agents into unmarked car, private data being used to intimidate observers". MPR News. Retrieved 2026-02-25.
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 V-Dem Institute. Democracy Report 2026 (Report). University of Gothenburg.
  30. ↑ Myers, Steven Lee; Barnes, Julian E. (July 10, 2024). "U.S. and Allies Take Aim at Covert Russian Information Campaign". The New York Times. Unknown parameter |name-list-style= ignored (help)
  31. ↑ Swenson, Ali (2024-09-17). "Russia goes all-out with covert disinformation aimed at Harris, Microsoft report says". AP News. Retrieved 2026-07-23.
  32. ↑ "Russia's new punching bag: Kamala Harris". POLITICO. 2024-07-23. Retrieved 2026-07-23.
  33. ↑ Sam Schechner; Thomas Grove; Warren P. Strobel; Aruna Viswanatha; Gordon Lubold (25 October 2024). "Exclusive: Elon Musk's Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin". WSJ. Archived from the original on 20 February 2025. Retrieved 21 February 2025. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  34. ↑ "Verfassungsschutz warnt vor Einflussnahme auf Bundestagswahl" [Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warns against influencing the Bundestag election]. Tagesschau (in Deutsch). Archived from the original on 29 November 2024. Retrieved 20 December 2024. Unknown parameter |url-status= ignored (help)
  35. ↑ "Influence operation exposed: How Russia meddles in Germany's election campaign". EDMO. Archived from the original on 4 February 2025. Retrieved 4 February 2025.
  36. ↑ Thust, Sarah (23 January 2025). "Einflussoperation enttarnt: Russland greift in deutschen Wahlkampf ein" [Influence operation exposed: Russia intervenes in German election campaign]. Correctiv (in Deutsch). Archived from the original on 23 January 2025. Retrieved 4 February 2025.
  37. ↑ Evan Williams (November 4, 2025). The Rise of Germany's New Right. YouTube. FRONTLINE PBS. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  38. ↑ Mudde, Cas; Kaltwasser, Cristóbal Rovira (2017). Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 34–35. ISBN 978-0-19-023487-4. Search this book on
  39. ↑ Kaplan & Weinberg 1998, pp. 10–11.
  40. ↑ "From 'Brexit' To Trump, Nationalist Movements Gain Momentum Around World". NPR. Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  41. ↑ Norris 2005, p. 44.
  42. ↑ AKGEMCİ, Esra (2022). "Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil". Uluslararası İlişkiler / International Relations. Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi İktisadi İşletmesi. 19 (74): 37–51. doi:10.33458/uidergisi.1113367. ISSN 1304-7310. JSTOR 27130875. One could argue that authoritarian populism can also be combined with left-wing social policy. Still, I assert that the phenomenon was born to address specific conditions in which far-right leaders appealed to the "people" with populist attitudes to promote authoritarian measures. A leftist leader can also be both authoritarian and populist, but the term authoritarian populism, which Stuart Hall coined, can be applied as a distinctive version of far-right populism.
  43. ↑ "Authoritarian Populism Index 2024" (PDF). Timbro. 2024. p. 12. Retrieved 2024-10-24.
  44. ↑ Corrales, Javier (2024-08-19). "Why Populism is the Sugar, Salt, and Fat of Our Politics. . . with Variations: A Reflection". American Behavioral Scientist. SAGE Publications. 68 (13): 1804–1814. doi:10.1177/00027642241268275. ISSN 0002-7642. For comparable arguments for left-wing authoritarian populism, see Corrales (2011, 2018),. Carrión (2021), Cleary and Öztürk (2022).
  45. ↑ Lawson, Edward (2019). "TRENDS: Police Militarization and the Use of Lethal Force". Political Research Quarterly. 72 (1): 177–189. doi:10.1177/1065912918784209. ISSN 1065-9129. JSTOR 45276899.
  46. ↑ Bettel, Florian (2021). "POLICING THE CRISIS: A History of Riot Control Technology". Icon. 26 (1): 90–111. ISSN 1361-8113. JSTOR 27082030.
  47. ↑ "Democracy Index 2020".


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