Tobias Adrian
| Tobias Adrian | |
|---|---|
| Born | July 23, 1971 Kronberg, Germany |
| 🏳️ Citizenship | United States, Germany |
| 💼 Occupation | |
| 🌐 Website | tobiasadrian |
Tobias Adrian (born July 23, 1971) is an economist who has been Financial Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017. He was previously employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was a Senior Vice President and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the general economy of developments in capital markets.[2][3] In particular, he is known for his work with Arturo Estrella on the yield curve.[4]
Early life and education[edit]
Adrian was born in West Germany and attended Humboldtschule, Bad Homburg. After obtaining a Diplom from Goethe University Frankfurt (1995), a Maîtrise from Paris Dauphine University (1995), both in Economics, and a M.Sc. from the London School of Economics in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics (1998), he studied for a Ph.D. at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, graduating in 2003.[2][3] His doctoral thesis was entitled "Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing".[1]
Career[edit]
While working at the Federal Reserve, Estrella and Adrian established the predictive power of an inverted yield curve to signal a recession. Their models showed that when the difference between short-term interest rates (such as 3-month Treasury bills) and long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury bonds) became negative or close to zero at the end of a federal reserve tightening cycle, this generally presaged a rise in unemployment.[4] The New York Fed publishes a monthly recession probability prediction derived from the yield curve that is based on the work of Estrella and Adrian.
Together with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of systemic risk, the CoVaR. CoVaR is an alternative to value at risk which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries.[5]
Adrian has written on the importance of the shadow banking system in capital markets, and its prominent role in the development of the financial crisis of 2007–2008.[6]
In his role at the IMF, Adrian has warned of the economic challenges of such factors as climate change,[7] COVID-19,[8][9] excessive coroporate debt,[10] central banking policy,[11] and political pressure on central banks.[12]
References[edit]
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Adrian, Tobias (June 2, 2005). Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing. DSpace@MIT Home (Thesis). hdl:1721.1/17571. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Tobias Adrian". imf.org. December 12, 2020. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 "Tobias Adrian". tobiasadrian.com. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Arturo Estrella and Tobias Adrian, FRB of New York Staff Report No. 397, 2009
- ↑ "The revolution within". The Economist. May 16, 2009. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ Pozsar, Zoltan; Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam; Boesky, Hayley (2013). "Shadow Banking". Economic Policy Review. 2 (19). Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ Egan, Matt; Business, CNN (June 3, 2021). "Climate change could ignite a financial crisis, IMF official says". CNN. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ Ackerman, Andrew (January 27, 2021). "Covid-19 Complacency Poses Potential Risk to Global Financial Stability, IMF Warns". WSJ. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ Amaro, Silvia (April 6, 2021). "For the second time, China has 'fared well' in a major crisis: IMF". CNBC. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ "What Will Cause the Next Recession? A Look at the 3 Most Likely Possibilities". The New York Times. August 2, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ Mendez-Barreira, Victor (March 16, 2021). "New monetary frameworks involve risk trade-offs – IMF's Adrian". Central Banking. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ↑ "IMF Says It's Dangerous for Politicians to Bash Central Banks". Bloomberg. April 11, 2019. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
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