List of countries by future Human Development Index projections of the United Nations

The list of countries, ranked by their anticipated Human Development Index (HDI) in 2010–2030, was published in 2010 by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), as part of its Human Development Research Paper Series. The Human Development Research Paper (HDRP) Series is a medium for sharing recent research commissioned to inform the global Human Development Report, which is published annually, and further research in the field of human development. The HDRP Series is a quick disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books. The authors include leading academics and practitioners from around the world, as well as UNDP researchers. The findings, interpretations and conclusions are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNDP or United Nations Member States. Moreover, the data may not be consistent with that presented in Human Development Reports.

For this Human Development Report Paper, the authors projected the HDI for every country which had a complete data series for the upcoming twenty years, whereas the HDI projection used projections of the components conducted by agencies that provide the UNDP with data for the HDI. The HDI list contains 81 countries, most of which are expected to have a "Very High" HDI by 2025.

The Paper cited for this article, however, is not supported by the UNDP Human Development Report Office. While it was originally made available online for review purposes, it was subsequently rejected.

Background

In October 2009, the United Nations Development Programme published (in its 2009 Human Development Report) its last country list by Human Development Index (HDI), for 2007, classifying the countries into four categories, the first one of which is the group of countries having a "Very High" HDI. Half a year later, in April 2010, the Human Development Report Office provided the 2010–2030 HDI projections (quoted in September 2010, by the United Nations Development Programme, in the Human Development Research paper 2010/40). These projections were reached by re-calculating the HDI, using (for components of the HDI) projections of the components conducted by agencies that provide the UNDP with data for the HDI.

The HDI was projected for all countries for which there was a complete data series for the 2010–2030 period. For example, the HDI was projected for every "non-tiny" country (i.e. for every country whose population is more than 800,000), that had a "Very High" HDI (i.e. an HDI of 900 or higher), in the 2009 Human Development Report. The HDI was not projected for countries for which there was no complete data series for the 2010–2030 period; Hence, the projection ignores countries which are not UN members (Hong Kong being an exception), and also ignores all "tiny" countries (among which seven had a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report: Andorra, Barbados, Brunei, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Malta). All "non-tiny" UN members for which no projection was made, didn't have a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report, although ten of them had (in the 2009 Human Development Report) a "High" HDI (i.e. 800 or higher): Albania, Belarus, Bosnia Herzegovina, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mauritius, Oman, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay.

According to these projections, Japan will lead among countries in the data set, with an HDI of 998 in 2030.

Probabilistic reservations

The UNDP indicates:

The projections suggest a possible future for the progression of HDIs, but are not designed to be predictive, as changes in condition and [in] policies will impact a particular country's HDI. Further, unanticipated "shocks", such as wars, economic sanctions, epidemics, and environmental calamities, may negatively impact the HDI, while other shocks, such as cures for prevalent diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS, end of conflict, sudden dramatic investments in and take-up of education, can positively impact a country's HDI. Thus, the projections should be interpreted as what might occur, based on a past global experience with HDI growth, not a normative suggestion as to what will occur.

Also these projections are based on the old methodology for calculating the HDI value of a country. The 2010 Human Development Report, which was published in November 2010 (after this research papers was published), introduced a new methodology for calculating the HDI. Therefore these projections are inaccurate to compare to current HDI values.

2010–2030 UN projections of Very High HDIs

2010 forecast	2015 forecast	2020 forecast	2025 forecast	2030 forecast (Rounded HDI values, with exact ranking)
Rank Country HDI 1–2 Australia 975 1–2 Norway 975 3 Canada 969 4 Ireland 968 5 Netherlands 964 6 France 961 7 Switzerland 960 8 Japan 959 9 USA 959 10–11 Finland 956 10–11 Italy 956 12–13 Austria 953 12–13 Spain 953 14 Denmark 951 15 Sweden 949 16 Hong Kong 947 17–20 Belgium 946 17–20 NZ 946 17–20 S. Korea 946 17–20 UK 946 21 Greece 944 22–23 Germany 943 22–23 Singapore 998 24 Israel 940 25 Slovenia 933 26 Qatar 913 27 Kuwait 911 28–29 Cyprus 905 28–29 Portugal 905	Rank Country HDI 1 Australia 984 2 Norway 979 3 Canada 977 4 Ireland 974 5–7 France 971 5–7 Japan 971 5–7 Netherlands 971 8 Switzerland 967 9–10 Finland 963 9–10 Italy 963 11–13 Austria 962 11–13 Spain 962 11–13 USA 962 14–15 Denmark 959 14–15 S. Korea 959 16–17 Greece 955 16–17 NZ 955 18 Singapore 954 19–21 Germany 951 19–21 Israel 951 19–21 UK 951 22 Slovenia 950 23 Hong Kong 949 24 Belgium 944 25 Sweden 941 26 Qatar 920 27 Cyprus 917 28 Portugal 912 29–30 Kuwait 911 29–30 Croatia 911 31–32 Slovakia 907 31–32 UAE 907 33 Bahrain 905 34 Hungary 904 35–37 Poland 902 35–37 Chile 902 35–37 Cuba 902	Rank Country HDI 1 Australia 988 2 Canada 983 3 Norway 982 4–5 France 980 4–5 Japan 980 6 Ireland 978 7 Netherlands 975 8–9 S. Korea 972 8–9 Switzerland 972 10–11 Finland 971 10–11 Spain 971 12 Italy 970 13–14 Austria 969 13–14 Denmark 969 15 NZ 968 16 USA 966 17 Greece 964 18 Slovenia 963 19 Israel 961 20 Germany 958 21–22 Singapore 957 21–22 UK 957 23 Hong Kong 951 24 Belgium 939 25 Sweden 934 26 Cyprus 931 27–29 Croatia 927 27–29 Qatar 927 27–29 Slovakia 927 30–31 Estonia 920 30–31 UAE 920 32–33 Chile 919 32–33 Portugal 919 34 Hungary 918 35 Poland 916 36 Cuba 914 37 Kuwait 912 38 Bahrain 909 39 Lithuania 905 40 Latvia 903	Rank Country HDI 1 Australia 991 2 Japan 990 3 France 988 4–5 Canada 986 4–5 Norway 986 6 Ireland 981 7 Spain 980 8 NZ 979 9–10 Netherlands 978 9–10 S. Korea 978 11–12 Italy 976 11–12 Switzerland 976 13 Finland 975 14–15 Denmark 974 14–15 Slovenia 974 16–18 Austria 973 16–18 Greece 973 16–18 Israel 973 19 USA 969 20–21 Germany 964 20–21 UK 964 22 Singapore 960 23 Hong Kong 953 24 Cyprus 945 25 Croatia 943 26 Slovakia 942 27 Estonia 937 28 Chile 935 29 Qatar 934 30 Hungary 932 31 Belgium 930 32 Poland 929 33–34 Portugal 927 33–34 UAE 927 35 Cuba 926 36–38 Latvia 920 36–38 Lithuania 920 36–38 Sweden 920 39 Bahrain 913 40 Mexico 912 41 Kuwait 911 42 Costa Rica 905 43 Bulgaria 900	Rank Country HDI 1 Japan 998 2 Australia 995 3 France 993 4 Spain 991 5 Canada 989 6 Norway 989 7 NZ 988 8 Ireland 984 9 Israel 984 10 Italy 984 11 S. Korea 981 12 Netherlands 980 13 Greece 980 14 Switzerland 979 15 Slovenia 977 16 Denmark 977 17 Austria 976 18 Finland 976 19 USA 973 20 UK 972 21 Germany 966 22 Singapore 963 23 Cyprus 959 24 Croatia 956 25 Slovakia 956 26 Hong Kong 956 27 Estonia 953 28 Chile 948 29 Hungary 946 30 Poland 943 31 Qatar 941 32 Cuba 939 33 Latvia 936 34 UAE 934 35 Lithuania 934 36 Portugal 933 37 Mexico 923 38 Bahrain 921 39 Costa Rica 920 40 Belgium 920 41 Bulgaria 918 42 Kuwait 909 43 Argentina 908 44 Libya 907 45 Sweden 906

Countries not included in the 2010–2030 UN projection

No projection was calculated for countries for which there was no complete data series for the 2010–2030 period (e.g. all of the countries whose population is less than 800,000). Among them:

• Seven countries, which had a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report (for 2007), but were not included in the 2010–2030 projection survey (due to their being "tiny" countries, whose population is less than 800,000):

Andorra, Barbados, Brunei, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta.

• Ten non-micro nations, not included in the 2010–2030 projection survey, although they had a "High" HDI (yet not a "Very High" HDI) in the 2009 Human Development Report (for 2007):

Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mauritius, Oman, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay.

External links

• Asher, Jana; Daponte, Beth Osborne (September 2010). "A hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development" (PDF). Human Development Research Paper 2010/40. United Nations Development Programme. pp. 29, 40–42. Retrieved 2010-10-25. - This link does not exist

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