Patriot Polling
| Formation | September 2022 |
|---|---|
| Founder | Lucca Ruggieri and Arhan Kaul |
| Type | Opinion poll |
| Purpose | Public opinion research |
| Headquarters | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
Executive Director | Lucca Ruggieri |
| Affiliations | Germination Project |
| Website | patriotpolling.com |
Patriot Polling is a public opinion research institute based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The organization studies political sentiments by surveying registered voters using Interactive voice response calls.
The institute was founded by high school students from suburban Philadelphia, becoming one of the first polling organizations to be founded by high school students. It remains one of only two such organizations included in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
Patriot Polling has received criticism regarding the inexperience of its founders, polling methods, and results biased towards Republicans.
History
Patriot Polling was founded in September 2022 by Lucca Ruggieri and Arhan Kaul.[1] Ruggieri is a student at Great Valley High School, in Malvern, Pennsylvania, and leads the organization as executive director and chief political director. Ruggieri also worked for David McCormick's U.S. Senate campaign and interned at Larry Sabato's Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.[2] Kaul is a student at Spring-Ford High School, in Royersford, Pennsylvania, and serves as chief polling director.[1]
The two met through Ajay Raju's Germination Project, where they both served as fellows.[1] They initially had only rudimentary knowledge of polling, but gained knowledge through online resources, resources in AP Government and AP Statistics and correspondence with local Republican and Democratic organizations.[1][2] They have said that Patriot Polling started as "more of a hobby" rather than a polling institute.[1]
2022 midterms
Patriot Polling had mixed results in the 2022 midterms.[2] While they correctly predicted 5 out of 7 senate and gubernatorial races they polled, their forecast was off regarding margins of victory. In Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, the sole House election they polled, they incorrectly predicted that incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright would lose.[2] Their final poll in Pennsylvania incorrectly showed that Republican Mehmet Oz would defeat Democratic nominee John Fetterman by 3%.[1] Fetterman would go on to win by 5%.[1] Despite correctly predicting that Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro would defeat Republican Doug Mastriano, they underestimated the margin of Shapiro's victory by 8%.[1] Their prediction that Republican Senator Ron Johnson would win ended up being correct, but they overestimated his margin of victory by 7%.[3] They were one of the more accurate pollsters in New York's gubernatorial race and Georgia's senate race.[3]
Methodology
Patriot Polling collects data through outsourcing to a third-party phone-banking service.[4] Their polls are conducted solely via landlines and not through cell phones, which has been described as a "red flag" by FiveThirtyEight.[4] Phone calls are conducted using interactive voice response technology that allows respondents to indicate their responses via the keypad.[4] Outgoing phone calls are initiated with an automated dialing system.[4]
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Sweitzer, Justin (November 30, 2022). "Patriot Polling, the brainchild of teenagers, is making its mark on the political surveying landscape". City & State.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Giangiuolo, Davis (2022-12-19). "Polling Firm Founded by DelVal High Schoolers". Delaware Valley Journal. Retrieved 2022-12-31.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Rutenberg, Jim (2022-12-31). "The 'Red Wave' Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative". New York Times. Retrieved 2022-12-31.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Rakich, Nathaniel (2022-12-06). "Warnock Has A Small Polling Lead In Georgia — But Walker Could Still Win". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2022-12-31.
External links
This article "Patriot Polling" is from Wikipedia. The list of its authors can be seen in its historical and/or the page Edithistory:Patriot Polling. Articles copied from Draft Namespace on Wikipedia could be seen on the Draft Namespace of Wikipedia and not main one.
