The Phillips Academy Poll
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| Nickname | Andover Poll |
|---|---|
| Named after | Phillips Academy |
| Formation | 2021 |
| Founder | Alex Shieh and Patrick Chen |
| Type | Opinion poll |
| Purpose | Public opinion research |
| Headquarters | Andover, Massachusetts |
Executive Director | Patrick Chen |
Chief Pollster | Alex Shieh |
Chief Strategy Officer | Nicholas Donnellan |
| Affiliations | Phillips Academy |
| Website | andoverpoll.com |
| [1][2][3][4] | |
The Phillips Academy Poll (also known as the Andover Poll) is a public opinion research institute based at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts. The organization studies political sentiments by surveying registered voters with telephone calls and text messages.[5][6] The poll’s findings and studies have been covered by MSNBC,[7] Fox News,[8] BBC News,[9] The New Yorker,[10] Politico,[11] The Guardian,[12] Newsweek,[13] NPR,[5] and FiveThirtyEight.[14] The poll has full length features in The New Yorker and NHPR.
In 2022, the poll's inaugural cycle, Phillips Academy correctly predicted all senate races polled before Election Day, including Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada. However, the poll overestimated Republicans in the 2022 Arizona governor election and the 2022 Georgia senate runoff.[15][7]
The Phillips Academy Poll is a student-led organization and the first public opinion poll to be conducted by an institution of secondary education.[6] As of the 2022 election cycle, it remains one of only two such organizations included in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.[16]
Organization[edit]
The Phillips Academy Poll is a student organization at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts. The poll was founded in 2021 by Alex Shieh and Patrick Chen, and polls were initially conducted from a server in Shieh's basement.[10] Phillips Academy polls are conducted by a team of Phillips Academy students, currently led by Patrick Chen, Alex Shieh, and Nicholas Donnellan.[10][17] The organization is funded by the Abbot Academy Fund, a grant-giving organization furthering the ideals of Abbot Academy, which merged with Phillips Academy in 1973.[18]
Methodology[edit]
The Phillips Academy Poll conducts surveys with telephone calls and text messages.[19] Phone calls are conducted using interactive voice response technology that allows respondents to indicate their responses via the keypad.[5] Outgoing phone calls are initiated with an automated dialing system.[6] Across all modes, Phillips Academy's response rate is approximately 2-3%.[5]
Sampling[edit]
The Phillips Academy Poll's landline sample is achieved through random digit dialing. Within local area codes assigned to the location being polled, phone numbers are dialed at random.[20] Phillips Academy's sample of mobile phone numbers is purchased from an outside vendor.[19]
Inferencing[edit]
Polling results are interpreted with raking, also known as iterative proportional fitting. This procedure adjusts the weighting for each response so the sample more accurately reflects the demographics and partisan affiliations of the general electorate.[5]
Student Civic Leader Summit[edit]
On the weekend before Election Day, The Phillips Academy Poll hosts a conference for high school students, featuring prominent political figures as guests. The summits are held to encourage civic engagement among members of Generation Z, as well as to spread understanding of opinion polling. The 2022 summit featured speeches from Seth Moulton, Arnon Mishkin, Adam Frisch, and representatives from the Harvard Institute of Politics.[21]
Criticism[edit]
Following the release of its April 2022 New Hampshire poll, Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, criticized The Phillips Academy Poll's use of interactive voice response to conduct polling, publicly questioning, "Why would you want to talk with a computer about your views on politics unless you really want to express your views on politics?"[5]
According to The New Yorker, The Phillips Academy Poll has been criticized due to the age of the students behind the project. When questioned by reporters, Chief Pollster Alex Shieh noted, "Adolescence doesn’t make phone lines break down."[10]
In November 2022, MSNBC's Steve Benen reported that Phillips Academy polls "were off in some key races this election cycle."[22]
See also[edit]
- Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
- Marist Poll
- Suffolk University Political Research Center
- Franklin & Marshall College Poll
- Siena College Research Institute
- Monmouth University Polling Institute
References[edit]
- ↑ "Leadership". The Phillips Academy Poll. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ "About". The Phillips Academy Poll. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ Nazar, Nabilah; Staii, Sophie (April 22, 2022). "Phillips Academy Poll: The Nation's First High-School-Run Public Poll". The Phillipian. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ Helfand, Zach (2022-11-06). "Meet the New Nates: Two Day Students at Andover". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Bookman, Todd (April 15, 2022). "Too young to vote, elite high school enters political fray with professional-grade poll of N.H. voters". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Dougherty, Justin (April 20, 2022). "Phillips Academy in Andover publishes first-ever public opinion poll conducted by high school students". 7News Boston. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 "Midterm Elections Round-Up, 11.29.22". MSNBC.com. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ "One Nation with Brian Kilmeade - Saturday, August 20". Fox News. Retrieved 2022-08-27.
- ↑ "US elections: Will Latinos oust Catherine Cortez Masto, the first US Latina senator?". BBC News. 2022-10-29. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Helfand, Zach (2022-11-06). "Meet the New Nates: Two Day Students at Andover". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ Okun, Eli. "POLITICO Playbook PM: Mitch McConnell and the tale of two moderate Dems". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
- ↑ "Fury after Democrats publish and withdraw letter urging Biden to negotiate with Russia – as it happened". the Guardian. 2022-10-25. Retrieved 2022-12-01.
- ↑ Lemon, Jason (May 27, 2022). "Democrats' chances of beating Ron DeSantis in midterm, according to polls". Newsweek. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ Rakich, Nathaniel (2022-12-06). "Warnock Has A Small Polling Lead In Georgia — But Walker Could Still Win". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ Reynolds, Nick (2022-11-28). "Herschel Walker's chances of winning runoff as early voting favors Warnock". Newsweek. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ Sweitzer, Justin (November 30, 2022). "Patriot Polling, the brainchild of teenagers, is making its mark on the political surveying landscape". City & State.
- ↑ "Leadership - The Phillips Academy Poll". 2022-09-15. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ Gordon, Jacqueline (January 21, 2022). "2021 Abbot Grants Promote an Array of New Project Ideas". The Phillipian. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 "Methodology - The Phillips Academy Poll". 2022-01-31. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ Bookman, Todd (April 15, 2022). "Too young to vote, elite high school enters political fray with professional-grade poll of N.H. voters". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved June 20, 2022.
Using a random dialing program of 603 area code numbers, the automated poll contacted 471 voters in New Hampshire.
- ↑ Zhang, Ishaan Padmawar, Vera (2022-11-11). "Phillips Academy Poll Summit Urges Andover Community to Engage in Polling". The Phillipian. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
- ↑ "Midterm Elections Round-Up, 11.29.22". MSNBC.com. Retrieved 2022-12-20.
External links[edit]
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