PredictionX

PredictionX

Formation	2015
Founder	Alyssa A. Goodman
Type	Research
Headquarters	Cambridge, Massachusetts
Services	Educational Courses, Interactive Forums
Affiliations	Harvard University
Website	predictionx.org

PredictionX, also known as The Prediction Project, is an international predictive-methods research project and a modular learning experience that traces humanity's effort to understand the future from ancient rituals to the scientific revolution to modern predictive simulations. PredictionX was founded by Robert Wheeler Willson Professor of Applied Astronomy Alyssa A. Goodman at Harvard University. The Prediction Project creates, collects, and curates materials documenting and analyzing how humans have predicted their futures over time.

Content and Production

PredictionX offers materials in Prediction Essentials, Omens & Oracles, Rise of Theory, and Modern Prediction.

Prediction Essentials

Prediction Essentials introduces members to the Predictive Systems Framework to view the various types of predictive systems models, the "Padua Rainbow" that demonstrates the steps from observation of phenomenon to establishing a predictive system, and the statistical modeling of uncertainty through the Puck Simulation.

Omens & Oracles

Omens & Oracles covers the various cultural predictive systems of ancient civilizations around the world. This module uses archeological archives to understand the earliest ways that humans attempted to predict the future using random, randomized, human, and non-random observations.

Covered predictive systems include:

• Astrology, the study of heavenly bodies in an attempt to explain and understand the mysterious and complex relationship between the Universe as a whole and human beings with astrologer Kathleen Medina
• Aztec Rituals, observations of visible astronomical events that were used to predict future or to back-calculate eclipses or other celestial phenomena that could then be correlated with socio-political or natural events with Professor David Carrasco
• Casting lots, revealing the will of the gods by human interpretation of the outcome of a purposely randomized process with Laura Nasrallah
• Comets, the attribution of events on Earth to the appearance of comets with John Overholt, Owen Gingerich, and Sara Schechner
• Egyptian Statue, the ancient Egyptian process of High Priests to read the movements of religious statues with Peter Der Manuelian
• Haruspicy, the process to sacrifice a sheep and extract its liver or use clay tablets with divination instructions to predict the future with Piotr Steinkeller
• Ifa Divination, an ancient Nigerian divination process by reading pine nuts on a tray with Jacob Olupona
• Maya Spacetime, the Mayan attempt to understand the will of the gods through astronomical observation with Dylan Clark
• Oracle Bones, the ancient East Asian ritual of reading the burnings of animal bones with Rowan Flad
• Oracle of Delphi, an assigned female divinator in the Ancient Greek town of Delphi with Emma Dench
• Roman Augury, the Ancient Roman process of watching the movement and flight of birds to predict political affairs with Emma Dench
• Tarot, the reading of religious cards to predict an individual's fortune with Colin Fredericks
• Tasseography, the Turkish process of reading leftover coffee settlements to predict an individual's fortune with Cengiz Cemaloglu

Rise of Theory

The Rise of Theory module follows various scholars through the transition from mystical divination to the scientific method as a form of pattern estimation.

The Path to Newton

The Path to Newton is an interactive timeline that covers the various scholars, concepts, and civilizations that led to Isaac Newton’s theory of gravity. The Path to Newton follows the exchange of intellectual information across many centuries throughout Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe that culminated to an academic environment that allowed for Newton to establish a solidified theory of gravity. The Path of Newton is created using the Omni Group's OmniGraffle software.

John Snow and Cholera

The John Snow and Cholera lesson follows John Snow’s, often considered the Father of Epidemiology, process to discover the source of a cholera outbreak in Victorian Era London. With support from the British Royal Society, the project looks through the archives of Snow's work to understand the changes in behavior, belief, and medical knowledge that stopped London's cholera epidemic.

Lost Without Longitude

Lost Without Longitude works to understand navigation as a form of prediction. With the support of the Harvard History of Science archives, this lesson looks at early tools of navigators, predictive maps, and the economic and political influences of early long-distance travel.

Modern Prediction

The Modern Prediction module explores the various ways in which predictive systems have embedded themselves into everyday life. Covering topics such as Earth, Health, Space, Wealth, and The Future of the Future, PredictionX sits with experts in diverse fields to understand how uncertainty and predictability impact our modern societies. Guests include:

• Rebecca M. Henderson, American economist
• Gina McCarthy, former head of the EPA
• Daniel Kammen, American scientist and renewable energy expert
• Susan Murphy, American statistician
• George Church, father of synthetic biology
• Immaculata De Vivo, American molecular biologist
• Peter Kraft, Cancer researcher
• Megan Murray, American epidemiologist and infectious disease physician
• Avi Loeb, Israeli-American theoretical physicist
• Jill Tarter, American astronomer from the SETI Institute
• David Laibson, Professor of Economics at Harvard University
• Daniel Gilbert, American Social Psychologist
• Ben Shneiderman, American computer scientist and Artificial Intelligence expert
• Ned Hall, American philosopher
• Stuart Firestein, American biologist
• Agustín Rayo, American philosopher and mathematician - Creator of Rayo's Number

References

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