Russian Kyiv Convoy

The Kyiv Convoy is a large group of military vehicles stretching some 20 miles. It is noted for initially threatening Kyiv, but then halting due to a number of reasons. Commentary on the convoy suggests that the large amount of soldiers may be without food, fuel and water, all the while being attacked by Ukrainian military forces.

Background

The Kyiv convoy was first spotted on Monday, the 28th of February, in an apparent attempt to make a strategic strike as part of the projected Battle of Kyiv on the capital. Many commentators on the conflict had suggested that Russia had wanted to conduct a short three day war, that consisted of lightning strikes that would knock out the government. A Pro Russian Government could then be installed, and the Ukrainian people would then flock to the Russian forces as liberators. This initial blitzkrieg was in fact not the case, and the Ukrainian people resisted the Russian forces. Russia based a large amount of forces in Belarus, those forces attacked across the border into the North of Ukraine, while other forces attacked from Donbas and Luhansk, and forces attacked from the south from Crimea.

Russian forces had been moving towards the capital north from Belarus, where the convoy originated, and also from Russia itself.

First appearance

The column of vehicles appeared on 28 February, crossing into Ukraine from the North, via the border with Belarus. It was seemingly destined for Kyiv. This initially caused consternation with many observers of the conflict, as it was considered that the convoy would besiege Kyiv, threatening it. However, according to the UK Defence Ministry, Ukraine's resistance, as well as multiple mechanical complications, have delayed Russia's advance, with the convoy now over 30 km from the capital. Britain's defence ministry noted, in an intelligence update "The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30km from the centre of the city having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion." The column, moving down from Belarus, then moved through Prybirsk, and then Ivankiv, before stalling some 30 kilometres outside Kyiv.

Composition of Convoy

The convoy is estimated to hold up to 15,000 troops riding in the vehicles. The formation itself is made of up a variety of military vehicles, sometimes parked three abreast across wider sections of the road. The convoy has been noted for its size, stretching about 65 kilometres. Satellite photos of the convoy indicate the column is composed of Russian supply trucks, troops, and weapons and artillery Reuters revised the size of the convoy, estimating it to be larger than previously considered, at 64 kilometers long.

Air cover

It has been noted that the convoy is protected by mobile anti aircraft systems. It is not known how effective these are, after speculation it was successfully attacked by Ukrainian BT2 drones.

Reasons for the Stalling of the convoy

The Convoy stalled 8 days into the war, and as of the 7th of March, 2022, according to US defence officials, the column had not moved at all for a few days.

There has been much discussion about why the convoy stalled.

Much commentary theorises that the convoy is stalled because of a lack of fuel. Generally within the conflict, fuel and supply issues have been apparent, with trucks and vehicles running out of fuel, leading to them being abandoned. In some cases, Russian soldiers had asked local Ukrainians for fuel for their vehicles.

Other media suggests that vehicles are bogged, triggering traffic jams. Similarly, vehicles found abandoned by Ukrainians were stalled and left by Russian soldiers, as the weather had created boggy conditions. Logistical challenges include weather and mud.

Others have suggested it is because of attacks from Ukrainian military, however there was little information about this. There were some suggestions that the column had been attacked either by artillery, Turkish made drones, or ground ambushes By the 7th of March, the column was still stalled 30 km from the centre of the city of Kyiv.

Poor maintenance of vehicles and cheap tyres have also been blamed, as these have been issues on other broken down Russian military vehicles located in other areas. Commentary from experts had indicated that the tyres on some Russian vehicles were of cheap quality, not maintained, and when the vehicles were used, they then failed. Trent Telenko, previously a Pentagon staff specialist and military history writer, nominated as a reason Russian vehicular tyres. Explained in a detailed illustrated Twitter thread based on photos of deserted Russian Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile systems. combined with his own experience as a U.S. Army vehicle auditor. "When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end," the sidewalls get brittle in the sun and fail like the tires on the Pantsir-SR, he wrote. "No one exercised that vehicle for one year." Government advisor and economist Karl Ruth supported Telenko. In addition, he noted that the trucks can't be "simply cannot risk them off-road during the Rasputitsa/mud season", meaning they were confined to roads

Overall, The UK defence ministry noted that it had been "delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days,"

Some have seen its plodding pace and logistical issues as an epitome of Russia's efforts in the war in general.

Ukrainian attacks/Strategic position

Ukraine has made regular attacks on the convoy, with BT2 drones, ground troops and artillery. Strategic attacks have contributed to the stalling of the convoy, with destroyed elements within the convoy creating traffic jams that prevented the convoy from proceeding.

A CNN article noted that strategically the stalled column presents two main threats to its ongoing campaign. Firstly that the column, now stalled could suffer attacks eventually destroying it. Secondly the stalled column, as the situation got worse for those within it, would cause morale problems clearly not just for those in the column, but other Russian troops that heard of its plight.

References

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📰 Article(s) of the same category(ies)

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