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2019–2020 Iran–United States conflict

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2019–2020 Iran–United States conflict
Part of Iran–United States relations, the Iraqi conflict, the Syrian civil war, the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, and the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict

Clockwise from top-left:U.S. troops observing the Attack on the United States embassy in Baghdad, American troops being deployed to the Middle East, wreckage of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, and the aftermath of Operation Martyr Soleimani
Date27 December 2019 – late January 2022
Location
Result Tension relaxed[7]
Belligerents

 United States
 Israel[1]
 Iraqi Kurdistan
Support:
 Saudi Arabia[2]
 United Kingdom[3][4]


Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve

 Iran
 Iraq
 Syria
 Popular Mobilization Forces

 Hezbollah
 Houthis
Support:
 Russia[5]
 China[6]
Commanders and leaders
United States Donald Trump
United States Mike Pence
United States Mark Esper
United States Mike Pompeo
United States Mark Milley
Iran Ali Khamenei
Iran Hassan Rouhani
Iran Qasem Soleimani  
Iraq Adil Abdul-Mahdi
IraqPopular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis  
Syria Bashar al-Assad
Popular Mobilization Forces Hadi al-Amiri
Popular Mobilization Forces Qais Khazali
Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah

The 2019–2020 Iran–United States conflict, also known as the Iran–United States crisis, was a military confrontation and international crisis between the United States and Iran, alongside their respective allies. The crisis brought the two nations to the brink of war, however, tensions were easied following a chain of events.

The crisis began on 27 December 2019, when unknown militants, suspected from Kata'ib Hezbollah, attacked the K-1 Air Base in Iraq. The United States struck Kata'ib Hezbollah positions within Iraq and Syria in response, which led to condemnation from Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi. Protesters later attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on 31 December, in which the U.S. blamed Iran and the Popular Mobilization Forces. In response, the U.S. assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.[8][9][10][11][12][13] Iran vowed harsh revenge against the U.S.,[14][15][16][17] and in response, Iran attacked both Al Asad Airbase and Erbil International Airport. Hours after the attacks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752,[18] which sparked protests within Iran.[19] Tensions calmed down as no further actions was taken.

Background[edit]

Timeline[edit]

27 December[edit]

On 27 December, Iran, Russia, and China began a four-day naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman.[20] The exercise was launched from Chabahar Port near Pakistan, and included the Chinese Type 051 destroyer Xining. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed it had deployed ships from the Baltic Fleet in its official newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda.[21] According to Iranian sources, the exercise was a response to U.S.–Saudi regional maneuvers and was meant to demonstrate that Iran was not isolated.[21][22] In contrast, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Senior Colonel Wu Qian claimed the exercise was a normal military exchange unconnected to the international tensions.[21]

U.S. Marines arrive in Baghdad to reinforce the embassy, 31 December 2019

Also on 27 December, K-1 Air Base in Iraq's Kirkuk Governorate was attacked with Katyusha rockets, injuring several Iraqi Security Forces personnel, four U.S. soldiers, and killing a U.S. civilian military contractor.[23] U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the attacks, blaming Iranian-backed Shi'ite Muslim militias, particularly on Kata'ib Hezbollah.[24]

29 December[edit]

On 29 December, U.S. airstrikes targeted Kata'ib Hizbollah facilities in Iraq and Syria killing 25 militants and injuring at least 55 others. The Department of Defense said the operation was in retaliation for repeated attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) coalition forces, particularly the K-1 Air Base attack. About 5,000 U.S. troops were present in Iraq to deal with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant remnants and to assist the Iraqi military.[25][26] Kata'ib Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attacks.[27]

31 December[edit]

On 31 December 2019, after a funeral was held for the Kata'ib Hezbollah militiamen that were killed by the prior U.S. airstrikes, an angry mob of dozens of Iraqi Shiite militiamen and their supporters marched through the perimeters of Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, marched down Kindi Street,[28] and surrounded an entrance to the U.S. embassy compound. According to the Associated Press, Iraqi security forces did not attempt to stop the mob and permitted them to pass a security checkpoint. The mob began taunting American forces. An additional 100 U.S. Marines were sent to reinforce the embassy.[26] As the fire broke out, an AP reporter on the scene observed at least half a dozen U.S. Marine Security Guardsmen and Diplomatic Security Service personnel[citation needed] on the roof of the main embassy building with their guns trained on the intruders, many of whom were wearing militia uniforms; the intruders stopped in a corridor after about 5 meters (16 feet), and were about 200 meters away from the main embassy building. There were also reports of tear gas being deployed to disperse the intruders as at least three protesters appeared to have difficulties breathing.

By early evening, the mob, which at one point numbered in several hundreds, had largely retreated and protesters had set up tents outside the embassy in an attempted sit-in. Kata'ib Hezbollah spokesman Jaafar al-Husseini claimed the protestors had no intention of storming the embassy and that the sit-in was to continue "until American troops leave Iraq and the embassy is closed."[29]

Senator Lindsey Graham indicated Trump had discussed the matter of a potential attack against Qasem Soleimani with him in advance, as he was visiting the president at his Mar-a-Lago estate.[30][31] According to journalist Bob Woodward, four days before the strike, Graham tried to change Trump's mind as they discussed the decision while playing golf.[32]

1 January[edit]

On 1 January 2020, the protests flared up again as demonstrators started a fire on the roof of the reception area, reportedly prompting U.S. Marines to fire tear gas at the crowd, without any significant injuries to the protesters or guards.[33] Iraqi soldiers, federal police, and counterterrorism units lined up between the protesters and the compound. No further clashes occurred as Popular Mobilization Forces militia leaders called on demonstrators to take down the tents and withdraw. Militia supporters considered the attack on the embassy a victory against the U.S. and that their message had been sent, with one supporter proclaiming "We rubbed America's nose in the dirt."

2 January[edit]

On 2 January, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said "the game has changed" and stated that the U.S. would preemptively strike Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq if there were indications they were preparing to attack U.S. forces, while also urging the Iraqi government to resist Iranian influence. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley emphasized that any group that attempted to overrun the Baghdad embassy will "run into a buzzsaw."[34]

3 January[edit]

Early on 3 January, Qasem Soleimani arrived at Baghdad International Airport via Cham Wings Airlines. Soleimani departed from the airport alongside Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. As their convoy was leaving the airport, an American MQ-9 Reaper loitering above struck the convoy, killing Soleimani, al-Muhandis, and 8 others. The strike had been ordered directly by American President Donald Trump,[35] and had come hours after U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced that the U.S. would strike if attacks were to be hinted at.[36][37][38][39][40] Shortly after the assassination, Trump deployed an additional 3,000 troops to the Middle East, in addition to 14,000 already stationed there since May the previous year.[41] President Trump defended the move, claiming in an interview with The Ingraham Angle on the Fox News Channel that Soleimani was planning further attacks against four U.S. Embassies across the Middle East.[42][43] This was later challenged by U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper in interviews on Face the Nation on CBS and State of the Union on CNN, who claimed that President Trump was not embellishing that there was an Iranian threat but that he had seen no evidence that U.S. embassies were to be targeted.[44]

On the same day of the Baghdad airport strike, an IRGC financier and key commander, Abdulreza Shahlai,[lower-alpha 1] was unsuccessfully targeted by U.S. drones in Yemen,[46] which killed Mohammad Mirza, a Quds Force operative, instead.[47] Shahlai was also responsible for the killing of five American soldiers in Karbala, Iraq on 20 January 2007.[48] According to a Washington Post investigation, the unsuccessful operation might indicate a broader operation than previously explained, raising questions about whether the mission was designed to cripple the leadership of the IRGC or solely to prevent an imminent attack on Americans as originally stated.[49]

4 January[edit]

Amid fears of a direct confrontation between the two nations, Trump warned Iran on 4 January against attacking U.S. assets or any Americans in the region. He threatened that in the event of an Iranian attack, the U.S. would target 52 Iranian sites, including cultural sites, which represented the 52 hostages taken by Iran in 1979, and would strike "very fast and very hard".[50] The White House officially notified the U.S. Congress about the killing of Qassem Soleimani, in accordance with the 1973 War Powers Resolution, a day after the assassination had occurred.[51] Meanwhile, thousands of people in cities across the U.S. participated in antiwar demonstrations against a new conflict in the Middle East.[52] On the same day, the UK sent two warships, HMS Kent and HMS Defender, to the Persian Gulf to protect their ships and citizens. The Royal Navy was deployed to accompany British-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz.[53]

On 4 January, Iraqi state news reported that there had been another airstrike on a convoy of medical units of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces near Camp Taji in Taji, north of Baghdad. An Iraqi Army source told Reuters the attack killed six people and critically wounded three.[54] The PMF later said there was no senior commander in the convoy, and the Imam Ali Brigades denied reports of the death of its leader.[55] The PMF also denied that any medical convoy was targeted at Taji.[56] There was no information about who conducted the attack. Spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve Colonel Myles B. Caggins III said the coalition did not do it, while Iraq's Joint Operations Command denied reports of any such attack occurring, saying it was simply a false rumor that spread quickly due to the prior airport strike.[57]

5 January[edit]

On 5 January, Iran announced that it would not continue to abide by the limitations mentioned in the 2015 nuclear deal. An Iranian government statement on state television said "If the sanctions are lifted ... the Islamic Republic is ready to return to its obligations."[58] Iran also demanded the Iraqi parliament to get rid of the American presence in their country. The Iraqi parliament passed a resolution to expel all foreign, particularly U.S., troops from Iraqi territory through a vote boycotted by Sunni and Kurdish representatives.[59][60][61][62] The media initially reported that the U.S. would comply with the resolution after a draft letter from Brigadier General William H. Seely III addressed to the Iraqi Defense Ministry emerged claiming as such, but Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper soon clarified that the letter had been sent in error and the U.S. Armed Forces would not withdraw from Iraq.[63] In response to the Iraqi parliament situation, Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq "like they've never seen before".[64]

Al-Manar reported that "in an extraordinary session on Sunday (5 January), 170 Iraqi lawmakers signed a draft law requiring the government to request the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Only 150 votes are needed that the draft resolution be approved."[65] There are 329 lawmakers in total. Rudaw Media Network (Kurdish) described the 170 Iraqi lawmakers that signed the law as Shiite[66] and that "Iraqi parliament's resolution to expel foreign troops has no legal consequences."[67] Al Jazeera reported the resolution read "The government commits to revoke its request for assistance from the international coalition fighting Islamic State due to the end of military operations in Iraq and the achievement of victory" and "The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason."[68] The resolution was approved in the Iraqi parliament.[69] In response to the vote, Trump threatened Iraq with sanctions that would "make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame" and demanded reimbursement for American investments on military facilities in Iraq.[70]

As the funeral procession for Soleimani and al-Muhandis was ongoing in Baghdad, several rockets hit near the U.S. embassy and the Balad Air Base without any casualties.[71]

6 January[edit]

On 6 January 2020, the Pentagon released a letter from Marine Brigadier General William Seely to Abdul Amir, the Iraqi deputy director of Combined Joint Operations Baghdad, informing him that "as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister, CJTF–OIR will be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement."[72] Shortly afterward, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said, "That letter is a draft. It was a mistake, it was unsigned, it should not have been released ... [it was] poorly worded, implies withdrawal, that is not what's happening."[73] On 6 January, Chevron evacuated all its American oil workers from Iraqi Kurdistan as a "precautionary measure".[74]

7 January[edit]

On 7 January, Iran's parliament approved a €200 million increase in the Quds Force's budget, to be used in two months.[75] Iran's parliament also voted to declare the United States Armed Forces to be a terrorist organization.[76]

8 January[edit]

On 8 January 2020, Iraq's Al Asad Airbase, which hosts U.S.-led coalition troops, was attacked with ballistic missiles as a part of Iran's "Operation Martyr Soleimani", named for general Qasem Soleimani. It was also reported that the airbase in Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan was attacked as well.[77] During the attack, the IRGC declared that "fierce revenge by the Revolutionary Guards had begun", indicating it was the official response to the killing of Soleimani.[78] Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, said military actions are not enough and that the "corruptive presence" of the U.S. in the Middle East must be ended.[79] Khamenei also described the attacks as a "slap in the face" to the U.S.[80] Khamenei later reiterated this during a Friday sermon on 17 January, describing the attack as showing that "Iran has the power to give such a slap to a world power shows the hand of God".[81] In a speech[82] broadcast on on Iranian television IRINN TV, Iranian President Rouhani stated that Iran will no longer stick to the 2015 nuclear agreement restrictions on uranium enrichment: "Iran's nuclear industry will prosper" he said. Rouhani also mentioned in his speech that "They cut off the hand of our dear Soleimani" and as revenge they, the Iranians, would cut off the legs of the Americans and toss them out of neighboring countries.

During his White House address hours after the attack, Trump ruled out a direct military response, urged rapprochement with Iran, demanded NATO be more involved in regional affairs, and demanded a new Iran nuclear deal be arranged. Trump, however, also announced new sanctions on Iran and affirmed his position that Iran could not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.[83]

Hours after the ballistic missile attacks, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was shot down and crashed after taking off from Tehran International Airport, killing all 176 passengers and crew, including 82 Iranian and 63 Canadian citizens. An investigation was launched to decipher the reason for the crash.[84] Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged deescalation and claimed that the United States' escalation of the conflict was partially to blame for the accident, saying "If there was no escalation recently in the region, those Canadians would be right now home with their families. This is something that happens when you have conflict and the war. Innocents bear the brunt of it." The incident slightly worsened Canada–United States relations.[85][86][87] The airline shoot-down also reignited anti-government protests within Iran that had previously become dormant during the massive public outcry against the death of Soleimani.[88] Foreign ministers from the countries who lost citizens in the crash—Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan, and the United Kingdom—met at the Canadian High Commission in London and demanded that Iran provide compensation for families of the victims.[87]

9 January[edit]

On 9 January, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council announcing that the United States was willing to negotiate with Iran to prevent further escalation.[89] Ayatollah Khamenei rejected the possibility of talks at any level between U.S. and Iranian officials unless the United States returned to the JCPOA; Iranian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Majid Takht-Ravanchi likewise rejected the option. Both ambassadors justified their countries' military actions under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.[90] Meanwhile, U.S. officials said they believed the aircraft had been shot down in error by an Iranian Tor missile, based on evidence from reconnaissance satellite imagery and radar data.[91][92]

10 January[edit]

On January 10, Acting Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi called Secretary of State Pompeo demanding that the U.S. send a delegation "to prepare a mechanism to carry out the parliament's resolution regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq".[93] Pompeo rejected Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi's requests. Shortly afterwards Iraq's highest-ranking Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, condemned the U.S.–Iran crisis.[94] The Trump administration, meanwhile, imposed new economic sanctions targeting Iran's metals industry and eight senior officials who were involved in the prior missile attacks. According to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, the sanctions would affect "billions" in revenue.[95][96] The U.S. also warned Iraq that it would freeze its account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York if it continued to urge the withdrawal of American troops, which would prevent the Iraqi government from accessing oil revenues, damage the Iraqi economy, and devalue the Iraqi dinar.[97]

11 January[edit]

Iranian protesters on 11 January, advocating for the overthrow of the Iranian government

On 11 January, Iranian officials admitted to accidentally shooting down Flight 752.[98] Following the announcement, two thousand people protested in Tehran, with chants including "Death to the dictator". Police used tear gas on the protestors. Officials reported that 82 Iranians among several other Iranians with dual citizenship were among the victims of the crash.[99] Two hundred people protested in front of Amirkabir University of Technology.[100] The protestors called for the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to resign, chanted "Death to the liars" and called "for the IRGC to leave the country". Protests also took place at the Sharif University of Technology and in Amol, Isfahan, Rasht, Sari, and Hamedan. Protesters chanted against the Revolutionary Guards, the Supreme Leader, and the entire political system of the Islamic Republic.[101]

12 January[edit]

On 12 January, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah called for Iran's allies in the Axis of Resistance—including Iran, the Syrian Arab Republic, Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Houthi movement in Yemen—to intensify its military campaigns against the U.S. to expel U.S. forces from the Middle East.[102]

Further actions[edit]

On 14 January, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson encouraged the negotiation of a new nuclear deal between the Trump administration and the Iranian government, which President Trump expressed agreement with.[103]

On 15 January, the United States and Iraq resumed joint military operations against the Islamic State after a ten-day suspension following the drone strike on Soleimani.[104]

On 17 January, Ayatollah Khamenei personally led Friday prayers in Tehran for the first time since February 2012, speaking at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque.[105] During his televised sermon, Khamenei lamented the shootdown of the Ukrainian airliner, sought to present the image that the country was unified despite protests and the international crisis, and lashed out at the UK, France, and Germany, referring to them as "servants" of the "villainous" United States. Khamenei denounced the Trump administration as "clowns" and insisted that the "real punishment" for General Soleimani's assassination would be forcing American forces out of the Middle East.[106] In response Trump, who was vacationing at Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, at the time, made posts on Twitter urging Iranian leadership to stop "killing" Iranian protesters and that it "should abandon terror and Make Iran Great Again!" One of the posts was written in both English and Farsi.[107] On the same day, the Asian Football Confederation banned Iran from hosting international football matches.[108] On 18 January, the U.S. sanctioned Brigadier General Hassan Shahvarpour, an IRGC commander in Khuzestan Province, after security personnel fired into protesters without warning during anti-government demonstrations in Mahshahr County.[109]

Notes[edit]

  1. The United States Department of State's Rewards for Justice Program offers up to 15 million USD in rewards for financial background information about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its branches, including information related to Abdul Reza Shahlai.[45]

References[edit]

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