Hypothetical Ukrainian victory in the Russo-Ukrainian War
A potential Ukrainian victory against Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War has been a widely discussed scenario, particularly following Ukraine's 2022 Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives.
Background[edit]
In 2014, Russia invaded two regions of Ukraine, annexing Crimea and instigating a conflict in eastern Ukraine that resulted in the occupation through Russian proxy forces of a third of the Donbas; in the latter, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics were declared. Eight years later, on 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[1] Initially, it was a widely held belief that Russia would take Kyiv in days or weeks and put an end to the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine. However, this objective failed.[2]
Successful Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russia (the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives) brought optimism among international observers that a Ukrainian victory against Russia was possible.[3][4][5] By November 2022, Russia had already lost control of more than half of the territory it took since the start of the invasion in February 2022.[4]
Analysis[edit]
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Retaking all of Ukraine's occupied territories is a scenario Ukrainian officials have long vowed for; in a meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Zelenskyy stated that "Our objective is to liberate all of our territories" and that "Crimea is our land, our territory, our sea, and our mountains".[6] According to Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, victory would mean the restoration of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders "including Donbas and Crimea", and rejected the possibility of a Ukrainian victory without retaking Crimea.[7] In a poll by Gallup, Inc. released in October 2022, it was shown that 70% of Ukrainians wished to continue the war until victory is achieved; 91% of those stated that victory included retaking all occupied territories of Ukraine including Crimea.[8]
The United States Institute of Peace (USIP), an entity aligned to the federal government of the United States, has developed a strategy with the goal of helping Ukraine win the war against Russia. According to the USIP, the United States should express its clear support for a Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat, that the United States should stand firm in the face of nuclear threats from Russia, that Western countries ought to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for help with its post-war reconstruction, that the West should support certain political reforms within the Ukraine, and that continued economic aid and military support and training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is key. The USIP gave further development on these points.[3]
That Ukraine could replicate its Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives and avoid a stalemate has been questioned; if the latter was to be true, Ukraine would be better off at a negotiating table before such a scenario was consolidated. Concerns about the duration of the pro-Ukraine coalition in the West have also arisen, particularly regarding Europe's conflicts with Russia over energy and the possibility of a Republican-held House of Representatives in a United States led by Democrat President Joe Biden. The status of the United States Armed Forces could also be downgraded as a result of heavy aid to Ukraine, and all the geopolitical and strategic advantages that the United States may further gain from the conflict (having already for example caused the enlargement of NATO or the weakening of the Russian military) could now be limited.[9]
According to Bob Menendez, senior United States senator, the United States have "no definition of victory", and stated that "if we define winning as Ukraine surviving and thriving as a cleaner democratic state, it can, it must, it will".[10]
Consequences[edit]
Within international geopolitics[edit]
A Russian defeat in Ukraine could bolster global democracy by demonstrating that the West would support democratic states. It could also deter authoritarian states from using force against their neighbors for their own political gain.[4] An example could be China. China and Russia maintain a close relationship, and it is believed that China could attempt an act similar to that of Russia against the Ukraine in Taiwan. A Ukrainian victory would not only affect China by hurting its strategic partner, but could also show that an attack on Taiwan would see a harsh response from the West.[11] But the issue of Taiwan is double-faced, as a rapid escalation in the region could prompt the United States in seeking a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine.[9]
It could also be an opportunity to reform the international system to more effectively prevent crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity and genocide, as well as reform the United Nations Security Council and the veto power of its permanent members.[4]
It could also lessen Russian influence through oligarchs and other ways over countries such as Georgia or Moldova. This may include difficulties for Russia to support the breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia's case and Transnistria in Moldova's case, facilitating the reintegration of both countries.[2]
Domestic impact in Russia[edit]
According to the Atlantic Council, a defeat in Ukraine could be a heavy blow against Russian imperialism. Russian nationalists and propagandists would be forced to accept the existence of an independent Ukrainian identity and the existence of a sovereign Ukrainian state; acts such as the 2022–2023 Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure would be a stubborn resistance against this harsh realization.[4]
A Russian defeat to Ukraine could weaken Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia. Being an authoritarian leader, his removal from power could be violent, and the manner in which it could be carried out could turn to be unpredictable. According to The Moscow Times, this possibility of a new wave of violence in Europe worries Western policymakers from giving Ukraine more resolute support against Russia, and they would prefer a protracted conflict, with fewer risks for Europe despite the extra deaths it would cause.[12] Another possibility would be the outbreak of a nuclear war as Putin would consider himself cornered and without any other viable option.[9][12]
It could also invigorate independence movements within Russia.[4]
A weakening of Putin's power could also have consequences for Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian President of Belarus backed by Russia, and embolden the Belarusian opposition to try and take him out of power and restore democracy in Belarus.[13][2] A democratic Belarus would help establish a stronger and more coherent eastern flank of the Western bloc.[4]
Impact for the Transnistria conflict[edit]
Some figures in Moldova believe that a Ukrainian victory against Russia would drastically impact the Transnistrian conflict. This is a frozen conflict between Moldova and Transnistria, a breakaway unrecognized republic that achieved de facto independence following Russian support during the Transnistria War.[14]
Iulian Groza, member of the Supreme Security Council of Moldova, stated that after a Ukrainian victory, there would be a new reality in which Russia would be excluded from the peace process in Transnistria; likewise, Lilian Carp, head of the Commission for National Security, Defense and Public Order believed that the 5+2 format for negotiation would not be maintained after the war. Octavian Țîcu, historian and politician, stated that a Ukrainian victory "will provide us with all the tools for a solution" to the Transnistrian conflict from which Russia will be excluded.[14]
Nicu Popescu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova, assured that a Ukrainian victory would lead to a peaceful withdrawal of the Russian forces in Transnistria, which would make it possible to continue working towards the reintegration of the country and the end of the conflict.[15]
Reactions[edit]
Fu Cong, the Ambassador of China to the European Union, stated regarding the conflict in Ukraine that "We are quite concerned about people talking about winning a complete victory on the battlefield. We believe that the right place would be at the negotiating table".[16]
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that "I'm deeply convinced you will win this war", referring to Ukraine.[17]
References[edit]
- ↑ Kirby, Paul (26 May 2022). "Donbas: Why Russia is trying to capture eastern Ukraine". BBC.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Whitmore, Brian (10 September 2022). "A Ukrainian Victory Would Liberate Eastern Europe". Foreign Policy.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Hadley, Stephen J.; Taylor, William B.; Herbst, John E.; Kroenig, Matthew; Haring, Melinda; Cimmino, Jeffrey (30 November 2023). "Preparing for Victory in Ukraine". United States Institute of Peace.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Lubkivsky, Danylo (16 November 2022). "Ukrainian victory can deal a decisive blow to Russian imperialism". Atlantic Council.
- ↑ Applebaum, Anne (11 September 2022). "It's Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory". The Atlantic.
- ↑ "Ukraine will reclaim 'our land' Crimea, allies shouldn't hesitate to help us: Zelensky". A News. 19 January 2023.
- ↑ Ward, Alexander; McLeary, Paul; O'Brien, Connor (2 January 2023). "Ukraine can't retake Crimea soon, Pentagon tells lawmakers in classified briefing". Politico.
- ↑ Liu, Natalie (19 October 2022). "Poll Shows Ukrainians Resolved to Fight Until Victory". Voice of America.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Brands, Hal (4 December 2023). "Ukraine's victories may become a problem for the U.S." The Japan Times.
- ↑ Bhadrakumar, M. K. (10 February 2023). "Waiting for Biden's definition of victory in Ukraine". Peoples Dispatch.
- ↑ Coffey, Luke (30 January 2023). "Hardheaded support for a Ukrainian victory". The Hill.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Gozman, Leonid (23 January 2023). "Europe's Freedom Depends on Ukraine Winning a Decisive Victory Over Russia". The Moscow Times.
- ↑ Edelman, Eric S.; Kobets, Vlad; Kramer, David J. (7 February 2023). "Ukraine and Belarus Are Fighting the Same War". Foreign Policy.
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Călugăreanu, Vitalie (13 January 2023). "De ce anume trebuie să fie pregătită Moldova după victoria Ucrainei?". Deutsche Welle (in română).
- ↑ Cristina, Costache (19 January 2023). "Nicu Popescu: Așteptăm victoria Ucrainei care ne va permite reglementarea pașnică a conflictului transnistrean". Vocea Basarabiei (in română).
- ↑ Lau, Stuart (8 February 2023). "China to EU: Drop calls for Ukraine's 'complete victory'". Politico.
- ↑ Sorokin, Oleksiy (16 September 2022). "Von der Leyen: 'I'm deeply convinced that Ukraine will win this war'". The Kyiv Independent.
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