South Sudan: Peace Status

The peace processes were held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The sittings were aimed to bring South Sudan’s rival factions, SPLM under the leadership of Salva Kiir and SPLM-IO- an Opposition party under the leadership of Riek Machar Teny, to have a common ground for the cessation of hostilities that have prevailed since the beginning in December 2013. The peace process under IGAD supervision has had parallel efforts to bring South Sudan factions to terms.

Background Of The Conflict

Tensions started after the death of South Sudanese revolutionary leader, John Garang De Mabior, shortly after signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement(CPA) (which ended Second Sudanese Civil War) and was sworn in as Sudan’s first Vice President and President of the Government of South Sudan in 2005. He was succeeded by his deputy by SPLM hierarchy, Salva Kiir Mayardit for the interim period from 2005-2011. After independence in 2011, the country gained its independence for about 100 percent votes for separation from Sudan . Shortly, Internal debates, criticism, and concerns arose towards president Salva Kiir Mayardit leadership and the SPLM party directions. These questions arose on concerns about no progress to the oil flowing since the breakaway/ separation with the Khartoum government. South Sudan sells her oil production to the world through the Khartoum government pipelines. Moreover, allegations that the party had lost direction since the independence referendum, and had no clearly defined visions or programmes for national development and national unity. Thus, there were many uncertainties on the 2015 elections. That is, how the multi-party shall be implemented and who is going to run for elections considering the country was still under on party system. Debates when on up to July 2013, when president Salva Kiir Mayardit dismissed his whole cabinet, including his vice Riek Machar, and recruited new cabinet outside SPLM party, and the criticisms that accompanied were suppressed by the state security . It is believed that this purge was aimed at political rivals within the government, thereby reviving the past violent factionalism that was evident during the Second Sudanese Civil War. The confrontations, accusations of mismanagement of public funds and tribalism and intentions by political figures upon the upcoming elections in 2015 started fights in Juba on 15th December 2013. Followed by the arrest of the political figures( South Sudan’s eleven political detainees) except Riek Machar who managed to escape . Furthermore, ethnically charged fightings soon spread in other states: Upper Nile State, Unity State and Jonglei State and all over killing thousands of people, forcing many to flee and shutting down of oil fields .

Call for Peace and Subsequent Cessation of Hostilities Agreements

Due to intense suffering, thousands of citizens displaced and human rights violations. the International community and citizens called for peace. The subsequent human rights violations compounded by impunity, and much worse with perpetrators not being held to account. There was a need for an urgent end of the cycle of violence . This led to parallel efforts by IGAD and East African Community to bring peace to South Sudan started with all the eleven political detainees released and were put under the custody of Uhuru Kenyatta, the president of the Republic of Kenya . The Peace deals started in January 2014 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia under the regional grouping IGAD to help mediate South Sudan’s warring parties: SPLM and SPLM-IO to agree on the cessation of hostilities and power-sharing . Unfortunately, the two factions failed to come to terms as soon as expected: due to the following reasons;

• Disagreements over the power-sharing ratios and government structure have always been the main obstacle for peace. The In-opposition party demanded 33 percent in the national government and 53 percent of legislative seats in three most conflict-affected states of which, however, the government(SPLM) has repeatedly rejected.
• Violations of cessations of hostilities. For example, the 23rd January 2014 cessation of hostilities was violated within hours of signing.
• Both factions were reluctant to sign the cessation of hostilities agreements.
• There was also accusations of appeasement and lack of inclusivity by IGAD.

International community warned and threatens to sanction South Sudan if the two factions could not sign a permanent ceasefire agreement with no violations soon enough. hence, 2015 Peace Agreement .

The 2015 Peace Agreement

The Sudan People's Liberation Movement(SPLM) restructure the SPLM-IO demands as follows;

• SPLM-IO legislature seats to be reduced from 53 to 40 percent in Unity State, Upper Nile State, and Jonglei State and granted 15 percent in all other states.
• The national government ratios remain as 53, 33 and 14 percent of seats allocated to SPLM, SPLM-IO, and other political parties, respectively.
• Riek Machar to resume the vice presidency seat.

And many more.

These power-sharing ratios enabled the formation of the Unity Government as per the 2015 Peace Agreement. Riek Machar returned to Juba and resumed his position as first Vice President. Unfortunate enough, a series of events that happened from the formation of the Unity government was succeeded by the Juba clashes, commonly referred to as the J1 Clashes from 8th July 2016.

The J1 Clashes

The 2016 Juba clashes were between the rival factions of SPLA loyal to Salva Kiir Mayardit and SPLA loyal to Riek Machar Teny. The country was back to war again, with hundreds of soldiers killed . Riek Machar once again fled South Sudan and crossed to the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC) for safety. Thereafter, Inter-Governmental Authority on Developments (IGAD) subsequently had him under house arrest in South Africa, until it was lifted in March 2018 by IGAD.

• What did that mean?

The factions had to go back to mediation for cessation of hostilities which were held in IGAD’s capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The subsequent Peace Signings ended up violated. For example, The 21st December 2017 Peace Agreement which was violated within days of signing. The fights started in Upper Nile State and Unity state.

The New Peace ‘Momentum’

The Khartoum Declaration the new peace started June 2018 when the newPrime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed handed over the South Sudan negotiations to Sudan’s President Omar Al-Bashir . The Khartoum Declaration was scheduled for two weeks, and mainly targeted three primary objectives ;

• Permanent ceasefire.
• Forming a new transitional government and revise security arrangements (defined by 2015 Peace Deal); thus set the stage for a three-year transitional period of which there will be a general election.
• And, Sudan to work in collaboration and coordination with the Government of South Sudan to secure and rehabilitate oil fields in Unity State.

Moreover, but not all, important Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) in The Khartoum Declaration are;

• President Salva Kiir to release all the political detainees.
• Riek Machar to be reinstated as first Vice President, and 4 vice presidents forming a collegial presidency with President Salva Kiir to achieve democratic and institutional reforms during the 30-month transitional period.
• The Agreement provides a 35-strong cabinet: 20 from the government (SPLM), 9 from SPLM-IO, and 6 from other opposition groups.
• The parliament will consist of 550 parliamentarians. 332 from SPLM, 128 from SPLM-IO, 50 from South Sudan Opposition Alliance, 30 from Other Political Parties and 10 members from Former Detained Leaders.

a. Peace Celebration

The long-awaited peace finally prevailed, and the celebrations happened on 31st October 2018. Present were: President of Sudan Omar Al-Bashir, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed among many other officials. The In-opposition leader Riek Machar and his associates arrived in Juba for peace celebration and resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan took effect from October 31st, 2018. On peace celebration, both leaders apologized to the citizens of South Sudan and assured the crowd that the September 12 peace deal in Khartoum is a true peace.

b. Measures to Maintain Peace and Prevent Any Kind of Violations

• African Union and the East African Community, Intergovernmental Authority on Development to deploy necessary forces to supervise the permanent ceasefire [29][42]. As well as push ahead with institutional reforms and provide annual survey.
• Mauritius to lend cautious support while laying out clearly what they expect from the next step and measures to be taken against party obstructing progress.
• The United Nations Mission in South Sudan welcomed peace with a fresh commitment and role in assisting with genuine reconciliation and peacebuilding activities.

• President Salva Kiir is expected to brief and update people at the grassroots about the peace deal and what it meant. As such, he is to embark him on the country ‘peace tour’.

c. Criticism of the Khartoum Peace Declaration

i. There have cases that the newly signed peace failed to address the issue of the concentration of power in the hands of the president (which triggered conflict in 2013). Therefore, a new constitutional arrangement and federalism addressing the distribution of economic and political powers, transparency and accountability, rule of law and shared citizenship in South Sudan, is required and very vital for longer lasting peace.

ii. Sudan has been suffering a dire economic crisis since the secession of South Sudan. In 2018, Sudan’s inflation rate soared and hit 68.93 pct in November. As such, it is believed that Omar al-Bashir has more leverage and is eager to boost South Sudan’s oil production which his country exports in its pipeline for a substantial fee. Therefore, he requires peace and stability, particularly in oil-producing areas, but not concerned by the ‘wellbeing of South Sudan’.

iii. A peace signed in 2015 ended up starting another war after the return of Riek Machar to the capital, Juba and resuming his new post in the government. The current peace has not solved the underlying causes of the tragedy. Therefore, the same history might repeat itself.

iv. Mistrust, rather than reconciliation, still defines the relationship between president Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. In the end, the status quo will continue to produce violence and threat to long-lasting peace .

References

External video

[1], Peace talk

[2], Peace Celebration in Juba

See also

• South Sudanese Civil War
• 2016 Juba clashes
• Ethnic violence in South Sudan
• Second Sudanese Civil War
• South Sudanese Civil War

External links

• [3]]
• [4]
• [5]

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