COVID-19 lab leak hypothesis
The COVID-19 lab leak hypothesis proposes that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 disease, leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China, resulting in the pandemic.[1][2] It was amplified by US President Donald Trump, prominent Republicans and conservative media in early 2020, and at the time was widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory with racist motivations.[2] In early 2021, some politicians and journalists reversed course and said the hypothesis warranted serious consideration and investigation.[1] Scientific consensus holds that as with other pandemics in human history, SARS-CoV-2 spilled into the human population naturally via zoonosis, and scientists have largely remained skeptical of the a lab leak origin,[3][4] describing it as a remote possibility and citing a lack of supporting evidence.[5][6] Many scientists have continued to describe the lab leak hypothesis as a "conspiracy theory."[7][8] Some scientists, despite misgivings, agree that more investigation is warranted.[9][10] The persistent promotion of politically motivated speculation despite the lack of plausible scientific evidence has prompted calls for scientifically rigorous and official investigations to continue in partnership with the WHO and China.[11][non-primary source needed]
Scientific consensus on likely natural zoonosis from bats[edit]
The first known infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China.[12] The original source of viral transmission to humans remains unclear, as does whether the virus became pathogenic before or after the spillover event.[13][14][15] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[16][17] it has been suggested that the virus might have originated from the market.[15][18] However, other research indicates that visitors may have introduced the virus to the market, which then facilitated rapid expansion of the infections.[13][19] A March 2021 WHO-convened report stated that human spillover via an intermediate animal host was the most likely explanation, with direct spillover from bats next most likely. Introduction through the food supply chain and the Huanan Seafood Market was considered another possible, but less likely, explanation.[20]
Research into the natural reservoir of the virus that caused the 2002–2004 SARS outbreak has resulted in the discovery of many SARS-like bat coronaviruses, most originating in horseshoe bats. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that samples taken from Rhinolophus sinicus show a resemblance of 80% to SARS‑CoV‑2.[21][22][23] Phylogenetic analysis also indicates that a virus from Rhinolophus affinis, collected in Yunnan province and designated RaTG13, has a 96% resemblance to SARS‑CoV‑2.[12][24] The RaTG13 virus sequence is the closest known sequence to SARS-CoV-2,[20] but it is not its direct ancestor.[25] Other closely-related sequences were also identified in samples from local bat populations.[26]
Bats are considered the most likely natural reservoir of SARS‑CoV‑2.[20][27] Differences between the bat coronavirus and SARS‑CoV‑2 suggest that humans may have been infected via an intermediate host;[18] although the source of introduction into humans remains unknown.[28]
Early dissemination of lab leak idea[edit]
The idea of a laboratory leak origin for SARS-CoV-2 was one of the earliest to emerge about the pandemic. According to surveys, early on in the pandemic up to 30% of Americans believed in the hypothesis at various points. It was initially spread in early 2020 by United States politicians and media, particularly US President Donald Trump, prominent Republicans and conservative media (such as Fox News pundit Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon). All these groups had a reputation for using conspiracy rhetoric to blame other countries for American problems.[2] In April 2020, Trump claimed to have evidence for the theory, but refused to produce it when requested.[29] At that time, the media did not distinguish between the accidental lab leak of a natural virus and bio-weapon origin conspiracy theories. In online discussions, various theories–including this one–were being combined together to form larger, baseless conspiracy plots.[2]
Resurgence of lab leak idea[edit]
In early 2021, the hypothesis returned to popular debate by renewed media discussion and circumstantial evidence.[30]
On 27 May 2021, US president Joe Biden ordered US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19, including this hypothesis, and provide a report within 90 days.[31] Half way into the investigation, it was reported that Biden administration officials considered the lab leak theory "as credible" as the natural origins theory.[32]
In July 2021, a Harvard-Politico survey indicated that 52 percent of Americans believed that COVID-19 originated from a lab leak, while 28 percent believed that COVID-19 originated from an infected animal in nature.[33]
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Thacker, Paul D. (8 July 2021). "The covid-19 lab leak hypothesis: did the media fall victim to a misinformation campaign?". BMJ. 374: n1656. doi:10.1136/bmj.n1656. ISSN 1756-1833.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Knight, Peter. "COVID-19: why lab-leak theory is back despite little new evidence". The Conversation.
- ↑ Gorman, James; Zimmer, Carl (14 June 2021). "Scientist Opens Up About His Early Email to Fauci on Virus Origins". The New York Times. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Graham, Rachel L.; Baric, Ralph S. (19 May 2020). "SARS-CoV-2: Combating Coronavirus Emergence". Immunity. 52 (5): 734–736. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.016. ISSN 1074-7613. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Stanway, Josh Horwitz, David (10 February 2021). "COVID may have taken 'convoluted path' to Wuhan, WHO team leader says". Reuters. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Maxmen, Amy; Mallapaty, Smriti (8 June 2021). "The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don't know". Nature. pp. 313–315. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-01529-3. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Frutos, Roger; Gavotte, Laurent; Devaux, Christian A. (March 2021). "Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model". Infection, Genetics and Evolution: 104812. doi:10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104812.
- ↑ Hakim, Mohamad S. (14 February 2021). "SARS‐CoV‐2, Covid‐19, and the debunking of conspiracy theories". Reviews in Medical Virology. doi:10.1002/rmv.2222.
- ↑ Zimmer, Carl; Gorman, James; Mueller, Benjamin (27 May 2021). "Scientists Don't Want to Ignore the 'Lab Leak' Theory, Despite No New Evidence". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331.
- ↑ Mallapaty, Smriti (1 April 2021). "After the WHO report: what's next in the search for COVID's origins". Nature News. pp. 337–338. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-00877-4. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Calisher, Charles H; Carroll, Dennis; Colwell, Rita; Corley, Ronald B; Daszak, Peter; Drosten, Christian; Enjuanes, Luis; Farrar, Jeremy; Field, Hume; Golding, Josie; Gorbalenya, Alexander E; Haagmans, Bart; Hughes, James M; Keusch, Gerald T; Lam, Sai Kit; Lubroth, Juan; Mackenzie, John S; Madoff, Larry; Mazet, Jonna Keener; Perlman, Stanley M; Poon, Leo; Saif, Linda; Subbarao, Kanta; Turner, Michael (5 July 2021). "Science, not speculation, is essential to determine how SARS-CoV-2 reached humans". The Lancet. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01419-7.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. (March 2020). "A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin". Nature. 579 (7798): 270–273. Bibcode:2020Natur.579..270Z. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7. PMC 7095418 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 32015507 Check|pmid=value (help). - ↑ 13.0 13.1 Cohen J (January 2020). "Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally". Science. doi:10.1126/science.abb0611.
- ↑ Eschner K (28 January 2020). "We're still not sure where the Wuhan coronavirus really came from". Popular Science. Archived from the original on 30 January 2020. Retrieved 30 January 2020. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ 15.0 15.1 Andersen KG, Rambaut A, Lipkin WI, Holmes EC, Garry RF (April 2020). "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2". Nature Medicine. 26 (4): 450–452. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9. PMC 7095063 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 32284615 Check|pmid=value (help). - ↑ Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, et al. (February 2020). "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China". Lancet. 395 (10223): 497–506. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5. PMC 7159299 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 31986264. - ↑ Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. (February 2020). "Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study". Lancet. 395 (10223): 507–513. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7. PMC 7135076 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 32007143 Check|pmid=value (help). - ↑ 18.0 18.1 Cyranoski D (March 2020). "Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus". Nature. 579 (7797): 18–19. Bibcode:2020Natur.579...18C. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00548-w. PMID 32127703 Check
|pmid=value (help). - ↑ Yu, Wen-Bin; Tang, Guang-Da; Zhang, Li; T. Corlett, Richard (2020). "Decoding the evolution and transmissions of the novel pneumonia coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / HCoV-19) using whole genomic data". Zoological Research. 41 (3): 247–257. doi:10.24272/j.issn.2095-8137.2020.022. PMC 7231477 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 32351056 Check|pmid=value (help). - ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (PDF) (Report). World Health Organization (WHO). 24 February 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 February 2020. Retrieved 5 March 2020. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ Benvenuto D, Giovanetti M, Ciccozzi A, Spoto S, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M (April 2020). "The 2019-new coronavirus epidemic: Evidence for virus evolution". Journal of Medical Virology. 92 (4): 455–459. doi:10.1002/jmv.25688. PMC 7166400 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 31994738. - ↑ "Bat SARS-like coronavirus isolate bat-SL-CoVZC45, complete genome". National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). 15 February 2020. Archived from the original on 4 June 2020. Retrieved 15 February 2020. Unknown parameter
|name-list-style=ignored (help); Unknown parameter|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Bat SARS-like coronavirus isolate bat-SL-CoVZXC21, complete genome". National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). 15 February 2020. Archived from the original on 4 June 2020. Retrieved 15 February 2020. Unknown parameter
|name-list-style=ignored (help); Unknown parameter|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "Bat coronavirus isolate RaTG13, complete genome". National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). 10 February 2020. Archived from the original on 15 May 2020. Retrieved 5 March 2020. Unknown parameter
|name-list-style=ignored (help); Unknown parameter|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ "The 'Occam's Razor Argument' Has Not Shifted in Favor of a Lab Leak". Snopes.com. Snopes. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Zhou, Hong; Ji, Jingkai; Chen, Xing; Bi, Yuhai; Li, Juan; Wang, Qihui; et al. (June 2021). "Identification of novel bat coronaviruses sheds light on the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses". Cell (Cambridge): S0092867421007091. doi:10.1016/j.cell.2021.06.008. ISSN 0092-8674. PMC 8188299 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 34147139 Check|pmid=value (help). Archived from the original on 18 June 2021. Retrieved 18 June 2021. Unknown parameter|url-status=ignored (help) - ↑ Lu R, Zhao X, Li J, Niu P, Yang B, Wu H, et al. (February 2020). "Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding". Lancet. 395 (10224): 565–574. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30251-8. PMC 7159086 Check
|pmc=value (help). PMID 32007145 Check|pmid=value (help). - ↑ O'Keeffe J, Freeman S, Nicol A (21 March 2021). The Basics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission. Vancouver, BC: National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health (NCCEH). ISBN 978-1-988234-54-0. Archived from the original on 12 May 2021. Retrieved 12 May 2021. Unknown parameter
|url-status=ignored (help) Search this book on
- ↑ "Trump claims to have evidence coronavirus started in Chinese lab but offers no details". The Guardian. 1 May 2020. Retrieved 18 July 2021.
- ↑ Knight, Peter. "COVID-19: why lab-leak theory is back despite little new evidence". The Conversation.
- ↑ "Covid: Biden orders investigation into virus origin as lab leak theory debated". BBC News. 2021-05-27. Retrieved 2021-07-18.
- ↑ Bertrand, Natasha; Brown, Pamela; Williams, Katie Bo; Cohen, Zachary (July 16, 2021). "Senior Biden officials finding that Covid lab leak theory as credible as natural origins explanation". CNN. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
- ↑ Mir, Alice; Ollstein, A. "POLITICO-Harvard poll: Most Americans believe Covid leaked from lab". POLITICO. Retrieved 2021-07-19.
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