Richard C. Duncan

Richard Duncan (August 21, 1932 – March 12, 2016) was the chief author of the Olduvai theory, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He had an MS in Electrical Engineering (1969) and a PhD in Systems Engineering (1973) from the University of Washington.

Early life and education

Richard C. Duncan was born on August 21, 1932, in Tacoma, Washington, and raised in Alki Beach in West Seattle. His parents were Ethel and Bruce Duncan; he was the middle of three brothers, the others being Bruce and Donald.

Duncan attended Alki Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and West Seattle High School, from which he graduated in 1950. He obtained his doctorate from the University of Washington.

Career

Duncan worked at his alma mater, the University of Washington, as a professor of electrical engineering and computer science. Other positions included working in recycling at Boeing, Puget Sound Energy, and, in Saudi Arabia, at Saudi Electric Supply Company. In the 1970s he co-founded the country's first curbside recycling program—known as the "ORE Plan"—in Portland, Oregon.

Olduvai theory

The Olduvai theory holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, will peak as the extraction rates of fossil fuels fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse, starting with massive electrical blackouts worldwide. He suggests that humans would eventually revert to a stone-age style of living after the majority of the world's population dies off over the coming century. In 1996, Duncan claimed that e had peaked around 1978. In 2000, the theory was revised to hold that the ratio would begin to decline around 2007. The peak was again revised in 2013 to have occurred in 2012.

He bases his theory on the fact that a steep rise in global population and petroleum use almost parallel each other but population increases at a slightly faster rate than does energy use.

Duncan's research data, compiled in partnership with geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist, have become widely used resources for those studying past and current trends in oil production and depletion.

Personal life

Duncan had three daughters: Delana Duncan, Janine Monnin, and Lisa Bunker. At the time of his death he had two sons in law, Brian Monnin and Michael Bunker, and five grandsons—Wally, Clive, Vonn, Theo and Duncan. He traveled extensively, backpacking through Europe and taking trips to six continents, including the Galápagos Islands, Egypt's pyramids, India, China, Kenya, and Russia. He also enjoyed walking and hiking, especially through his North Admiral neighborhood, and the Cascades.

Duncan died at home on March 12, 2016.

See also

• World energy resources and consumption

Bibliography

• Duncan, Richard C. (Winter 2013). "The Olduvai Theory: Heading into the Gorge" (PDF). The Social Contract. Social Contract Press. 23 (2): 44–49.

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